538's Elite Eight Predictions/Projections

[Alsacs]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

538 went 8-0 in the Sweet 16 round.

Kansas is a 59% favorite to beat Villanova
Oklahoma is a 54% favorite to beat Oregon
North Carolina is a 82% favorite to beat Notre Dame
Virginia is a 69% favorite to beat Syracuse

I think is pretty fair. UVA would win 7 of 10 games. I think we can pull one of the 3 out of 10 tomorrow.

 

[Melancer46]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

538 went 8-0 in the Sweet 16 round.

Kansas is a 59% favorite to beat Villanova
Oklahoma is a 54% favorite to beat Oregon
North Carolina is a 82% favorite to beat Notre Dame
Virginia is a 69% favorite to beat Syracuse

I think is pretty fair. UVA would win 7 of 10 games. I think we can pull one of the 3 out of 10 tomorrow.

They should be roughly 44/56 in the tournament now it I'm doing the math right. They had gotten 75% right going into this round.

 

[SU94]

Virginia is a 69% favorite to beat Syracuse

I think is pretty fair. UVA would win 7 of 10 games. I think we can pull one of the 3 out of 10 tomorrow.

So, tomorrow night, we are Derek Jeter, Buster Posey or Luke Appling ...
All .310 career hitters.
Let's put the ball in play and hit it where they ain't !!!!

 

[bpo57]

So, tomorrow night, we are Derek Jeter, Buster Posey or Luke Appling ...
All .310 career hitters.
Let's put the ball in play and hit it where they ain't !!!!

Yep let's hit it hard. No soft dying quails into right field ala DJ.

 

[HoustonCuse]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

538 went 8-0 in the Sweet 16 round.

Kansas is a 59% favorite to beat Villanova
Oklahoma is a 54% favorite to beat Oregon
North Carolina is a 82% favorite to beat Notre Dame
Virginia is a 69% favorite to beat Syracuse

I think is pretty fair. UVA would win 7 of 10 games. I think we can pull one of the 3 out of 10 tomorrow.

They had Syracuse as a 10% probability to get to the Sweet 16 before the tourney started. I don't say that to bash them, I say it reinforce the idea that these are only probabilities. The probability of winning the lottery is 1 in millions, but it happens every week. I keep thinking - every game we play is another game where we have a chance to light it up from 3. That same goes here even though UVa is so tough defensively. I thought Mali was extremely tentative last night for most of the game and I think he will feel much more comfortable against a familiar opponent, especially one he played well against.

 

[Alsacs]

538
ranks the teams remaining
1. Kansas 95.4
2. North Carolina 94.8
3. Virginia 93.8
4. Villanova 93.6
5. Oklahoma 91.0
6. Oregon 89.5
7. Syracuse 89.4
8. Notre Dame 86.5

 

[bballbeadle]

538
ranks the teams remaining
1. Kansas 95.4
2. North Carolina 94.8
3. Virginia 93.8
4. Villanova 93.6
5. Oklahoma 91.0
6. Oregon 89.5
7. Syracuse 89.4
8. Notre Dame 86.5

Damn the torpedoes and fire the odds!!

 

[Rage4CUSE]

538
ranks the teams remaining
1. Kansas 95.4
2. North Carolina 94.8
3. Virginia 93.8
4. Villanova 93.6
5. Oklahoma 91.0
6. Oregon 89.5
7. Syracuse 89.4
8. Notre Dame 86.5

I'm a little surprised how close we are to Oregon. We truly are one of the best 8 teams in the country.

 

[Alsacs]

I'm a little surprised how close we are to Oregon. We truly are one of the best 8 teams in the country.

These are just the last 8 teams left. We aren't a top 10 according to 538. Michigan State/Maryland/Kentucky/Indiana and bunch of other teams are ahead of us they were just eliminated.

I do agree we are closer to Oregon than many think. Oregon isn't a good defensive team in the 538 metrics and their offense is elite.