SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 17 (2/26-3/4/18)
St. Joseph’s beat #17 Rhode Island 78-48 = +39 points
Michigan beat #2 Michigan State 75-64 = +35 points
Duke beat #9 North Carolina 74-64 = +27 points
Michigan beat #8 Purdue 75-66 = +27 points
Louisville lost to #1 Virginia 66-67 = +24 points
West Virginia beat #12 Texas Tech 84-74 = +24 points
Virginia Tech beat #5 Duke 64-63 = +22 points
Arkansas beat #14 Auburn 91-82 = +21 points
Wisconsin lost to #2 Michigan State 60-63 = +21 points
DePaul lost to #3 Xavier 62-65 = +20 points
U of Miami beat #9 North Carolina 91-88 = +20 points
Notre Dame lost to #1 Virginia 57-62 = +20 points
Seton Hall lost to #4 Villanova 68-69 = +20 points
Cincinnati beat #11 Wichita State 62-61 = +16 points
Florida beat #23 Kentucky 80-67 = +16 points
Wichita State lost to #10 Cincinnati 61-62 = +15 points
Penn State beat #13 Ohio State 69-68 = +14 points
Texas beat #20 West Virginia 87-79 = +14 points
Providence lost to #3 Xavier 74-84 = +13 points
Central Florida lost to #11 Wichita State 71-75 = +11 points
Davidson beat #17 Rhode Island 63-61 = +11 points
Marshall beat #24 Middle Tennessee State 76-67 = +11 points
North Carolina lost to #5 Duke 64-74 = +11 points
Rutgers lost to #8 Purdue 75-82 = +11 points
Syracuse beat #18 Clemson 55-52 = +11 points
San Diego State beat #21 Nevada-Reno 79-74 = +10 points
Texas lost to #6 Kansas 70-80 = +10 points
Texas Christian lost to #12 Texas Tech 75-79 = +10 points
Georgetown lost to #4 Villanova 73-97 = +8 points
Georgia lost to #16 Tennessee 61-66 = +5 points
Iowa lost to #15 Michigan 71-77 = +5 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #7 Gonzaga 69-83 = +5 points
South Carolina lost to #14 Auburn 70-79 = +3 points
Oklahoma State beat #6 Kansas 82-64 = +2 points
Purdue lost to #15 Michigan 66-75 = +2 points
Stanford lost to #19 Arizona 67-75 = +2 points
Pepperdine lost to #22 St. Mary’s 66-69 = +1 point
Michigan State lost to #15 Michigan 64-75 = 0 points
California lost to #19 Arizona 54-66 = -5 points
Florida State lost to #18 Clemson 63-76 = -5 points
Nebraska lost to #15 Michigan 58-77 = -8 points
Connecticut lost to #22 Houston 71-81 = -9 points
Penn State lost to #8 Purdue 70-78 = -10 points
Mississippi State lost to #16 Tennessee 54-76 = -12 points
Southern Methodist lost to #25 Houston 56-69 = -12 points
Tulane lost to #10 Cincinnati 49-78 = -13 points
Mississippi lost to #23 Kentucky 78-96 = -15 points
Western Kentucky lost to #24 Middle Tennessee State 64-82 = -16 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #21 Nevada-Reno 75-101 = -21 points
Comment: Michigan’s victory in the Big Ten tournament gives them a big leg up, 9and an automatic bid). This week, other teams will get their own legs up. People criticize the conference tournaments but some of the best basketball you will see all year is played in them. Favorites went 32-17 in week 17 after going 38-8 in week 16. St. Joseph’s was -19 against ranked teams in the first 16 weeks. They are now +20.
Top 68
Texas Tech +171 points
Michigan +161 points
Duke +145 points
Alabama +140 points
Oklahoma +129 points
Texas +121 points
Michigan State +118 points
Florida +117 points
North Carolina State +114 points
Villanova +108 points
Florida State +105 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Kansas +103 points
Xavier +98 points
Oklahoma State +96 points
Purdue +94 points
St. John’s +94 points
West Virginia +90 points
Penn State +88 points
Virginia Tech +87 points
Creighton +85 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Arkansas +80 points
U of Miami +74 points
North Carolina +70 points
Baylor +68 points
Arizona State +66 points
Gonzaga +65 points
Butler +63 points
South Carolina +63 points
Wichita State +62 points
Indiana +58 points
Providence +58 points
Houston +56 points
Wisconsin +56 points
Southern Methodist +55 points
Nebraska +54 points
Syracuse +53 points (40th)
Tennessee +52 points
Ohio State +50 points
Georgia +47 points
Georgia Tech +47 points
Kentucky +47 points
Iowa State +46 points
Washington +45 points
Arizona +42 points
Utah +41 points
Clemson +40 points
San Diego +38 points
Oregon +38 points
DePaul +32 points
Notre Dame +32 points
Auburn +28 points
Cincinnati +26 points
Georgetown +26 points
Wofford +25 points
Marshall +24 points
Boston College +22 points
Illinois +22 points
Missouri +22 points
St. Joseph’s +20 points
Northwestern +19 points
Vanderbilt +18 points
Vermont +17 points
St. Mary’s +17 points
Maryland +17 points
Wake Forest has -5 points.
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 17 (2/26-3/4/18)
St. Joseph’s beat #17 Rhode Island 78-48 = +39 points
Michigan beat #2 Michigan State 75-64 = +35 points
Duke beat #9 North Carolina 74-64 = +27 points
Michigan beat #8 Purdue 75-66 = +27 points
Louisville lost to #1 Virginia 66-67 = +24 points
West Virginia beat #12 Texas Tech 84-74 = +24 points
Virginia Tech beat #5 Duke 64-63 = +22 points
Arkansas beat #14 Auburn 91-82 = +21 points
Wisconsin lost to #2 Michigan State 60-63 = +21 points
DePaul lost to #3 Xavier 62-65 = +20 points
U of Miami beat #9 North Carolina 91-88 = +20 points
Notre Dame lost to #1 Virginia 57-62 = +20 points
Seton Hall lost to #4 Villanova 68-69 = +20 points
Cincinnati beat #11 Wichita State 62-61 = +16 points
Florida beat #23 Kentucky 80-67 = +16 points
Wichita State lost to #10 Cincinnati 61-62 = +15 points
Penn State beat #13 Ohio State 69-68 = +14 points
Texas beat #20 West Virginia 87-79 = +14 points
Providence lost to #3 Xavier 74-84 = +13 points
Central Florida lost to #11 Wichita State 71-75 = +11 points
Davidson beat #17 Rhode Island 63-61 = +11 points
Marshall beat #24 Middle Tennessee State 76-67 = +11 points
North Carolina lost to #5 Duke 64-74 = +11 points
Rutgers lost to #8 Purdue 75-82 = +11 points
Syracuse beat #18 Clemson 55-52 = +11 points
San Diego State beat #21 Nevada-Reno 79-74 = +10 points
Texas lost to #6 Kansas 70-80 = +10 points
Texas Christian lost to #12 Texas Tech 75-79 = +10 points
Georgetown lost to #4 Villanova 73-97 = +8 points
Georgia lost to #16 Tennessee 61-66 = +5 points
Iowa lost to #15 Michigan 71-77 = +5 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #7 Gonzaga 69-83 = +5 points
South Carolina lost to #14 Auburn 70-79 = +3 points
Oklahoma State beat #6 Kansas 82-64 = +2 points
Purdue lost to #15 Michigan 66-75 = +2 points
Stanford lost to #19 Arizona 67-75 = +2 points
Pepperdine lost to #22 St. Mary’s 66-69 = +1 point
Michigan State lost to #15 Michigan 64-75 = 0 points
California lost to #19 Arizona 54-66 = -5 points
Florida State lost to #18 Clemson 63-76 = -5 points
Nebraska lost to #15 Michigan 58-77 = -8 points
Connecticut lost to #22 Houston 71-81 = -9 points
Penn State lost to #8 Purdue 70-78 = -10 points
Mississippi State lost to #16 Tennessee 54-76 = -12 points
Southern Methodist lost to #25 Houston 56-69 = -12 points
Tulane lost to #10 Cincinnati 49-78 = -13 points
Mississippi lost to #23 Kentucky 78-96 = -15 points
Western Kentucky lost to #24 Middle Tennessee State 64-82 = -16 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #21 Nevada-Reno 75-101 = -21 points
Comment: Michigan’s victory in the Big Ten tournament gives them a big leg up, 9and an automatic bid). This week, other teams will get their own legs up. People criticize the conference tournaments but some of the best basketball you will see all year is played in them. Favorites went 32-17 in week 17 after going 38-8 in week 16. St. Joseph’s was -19 against ranked teams in the first 16 weeks. They are now +20.
Top 68
Texas Tech +171 points
Michigan +161 points
Duke +145 points
Alabama +140 points
Oklahoma +129 points
Texas +121 points
Michigan State +118 points
Florida +117 points
North Carolina State +114 points
Villanova +108 points
Florida State +105 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Kansas +103 points
Xavier +98 points
Oklahoma State +96 points
Purdue +94 points
St. John’s +94 points
West Virginia +90 points
Penn State +88 points
Virginia Tech +87 points
Creighton +85 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Arkansas +80 points
U of Miami +74 points
North Carolina +70 points
Baylor +68 points
Arizona State +66 points
Gonzaga +65 points
Butler +63 points
South Carolina +63 points
Wichita State +62 points
Indiana +58 points
Providence +58 points
Houston +56 points
Wisconsin +56 points
Southern Methodist +55 points
Nebraska +54 points
Syracuse +53 points (40th)
Tennessee +52 points
Ohio State +50 points
Georgia +47 points
Georgia Tech +47 points
Kentucky +47 points
Iowa State +46 points
Washington +45 points
Arizona +42 points
Utah +41 points
Clemson +40 points
San Diego +38 points
Oregon +38 points
DePaul +32 points
Notre Dame +32 points
Auburn +28 points
Cincinnati +26 points
Georgetown +26 points
Wofford +25 points
Marshall +24 points
Boston College +22 points
Illinois +22 points
Missouri +22 points
St. Joseph’s +20 points
Northwestern +19 points
Vanderbilt +18 points
Vermont +17 points
St. Mary’s +17 points
Maryland +17 points
Wake Forest has -5 points.
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.
