SWC75
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 14
Ohio State beat #13 Michigan 56-27 = +42 points
Wisconsin beat #8 Minnesota 38-17 = +39 points
Oklahoma beat #21 Oklahoma State 34-16 = +25 points
Auburn beat #5 Alabama 48-45 = +24 points
Memphis beat #19 Cincinnati 34-24 = +17 points
Kansas State beat #23 Iowa State 27-17 = +13 points
Virginia beat #24 Virginia Tech 39-30 = +11 points
Alabama lost to #15 Auburn 45-48 = +8 points
Nebraska lost to #17 Iowa 24-27 = +6 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
Colorado State lost to #20 Boise State 24-31 = -1 points
Cincinnati lost to #18 Memphis 24-34 = -2 points
Oregon State lost to #14 Oregon 10-24 = -2 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
Rutgers lost to #10 Penn State 6-27 = -5 points
Minnesota lost to #12 Wisconsin 17-38 = -7 points
Florida State lost to #11 Florida 17-40 = -8 points
Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points
Stanford lost to #16 Notre Dame 24-45 = -11 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points
Troy lost to #25 Appalachian State 13-48 = -34 points
Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points
TOP 25
Ohio State +140 points
Louisiana State +105 points
Auburn +103 points
Wisconsin +77 points
Georgia +71 points
Michigan +68 points
Oklahoma +63 points
Southern California +52 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Alabama +48 points
Florida +48 points
Arizona State +47 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Washington +41 points
Texas +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa +34 points
Memphis +34 points
Penn State +34 points
Iowa State +31 points
Clemson +28 points
U of Miami +28 points
Utah +27 points
North Carolina +24 points
Oklahoma State +24 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +28, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points.
Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have bene crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 7-0, (353-61) , an average of 50-9. +28ART seems to me to under-rate them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M, (yes, they were not good teams but it’s what Clemson and Ohio State would have done to those teams.
What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here si Clemson’s record this year:
Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points
Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points
Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points
Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points
Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points
North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points
Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
TOTAL: -139 points
Now let’s look at Ohio State:
Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points
Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points
Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points
Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points
Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points
Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points
Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points
Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
TOTAL: -189 points
So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU:
Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points
Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points
Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points
Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points
Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points
Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points
Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points
Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
TOTAL: -51 points
Georgia:
Vanderbilt lost to #3 Georgia 6-30 = -1 point
Murray State lost to #3 Georgia 17-63 = -23 points
Arkansas State lost to #3 Georgia 0-55 = -32 points
Notre Dame lost to #3 Georgia 17-23 = +17 points
Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia 14-43 = -6 points
South Carolina beat #3 Georgia 20-17 = +26 points
Kentucky lost to #10 Georgia 0-21 = -5 points
Florida lost to #8 Georgia 17-24 = +11 points
Missouri lost to #6 Georgia 0-27 = -7 points
Texas A&M lost to #4 Georgia 13-19 = +16 points
Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points
TOTAL: -27 points
Oklahoma:
Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points
Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points
Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points
West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points
Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points
Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points
Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
TOTAL: 0
Baylor:
(The Bears weren’t ranked until game 6)
Texas Tech lost to #22 Baylor 30-33 = +1 point
Oklahoma State lost to #18 Baylor 27-45 = -10 points
West Virginia lost to #12 Baylor 14-17 = +11 points
Texas Christian lost to #12 Baylor 23-29 = +8 points
Oklahoma beat #13 Baylor 34-31 = +16 points
Texas lost to #14 Baylor 10-24 = -2 points
Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points
TOTAL: -14 points
And, finally Utah:
Brigham Young lost to #14 Utah 12-30 = -6 points
Northern Illinois lost to #13 Utah 17-35 = -5 points
Idaho State lost to #11 Utah 0-31 = -16 points
Southern California beat #10 Utah 30-23= +23 points
Washington State lost to #19 Utah 13-38 = -18 points
Oregon State lost to #15 Utah 7-52 = -34 points
Arizona State lost to #13 Utah 3-21 = -5 points
California lost to #12 Utah 0-35 = -21 points
Washington lost to #9 Utah 28-33 = +12 points
UCLA lost to #7 Utah 3-49 = -27 points
Arizona lost to #7 Utah 7-35 = -9 yards
Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points
TOTAL: -116 points
As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +139 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +189, LSU +51, Georgia +27, Oklahoma 0, Baylor +14 and Utah +116. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result:
Ohio State +329 points
Clemson +167 points
LSU +156 points
Utah +143 points
Georgia +98 points
Oklahoma +63 points
Baylor +27 points
From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin can do any better against them. If form holds in the other games, Utah should be in over the Oklahoma-Baylor winner. If Georgia beats LSU both the Big 12 and Pac 12 could be shut out of the championship playoff. As that sort of thing adds up over the years, we will get closer and closer to an 8 team playoff, which I think we badly need.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 14
Ohio State beat #13 Michigan 56-27 = +42 points
Wisconsin beat #8 Minnesota 38-17 = +39 points
Oklahoma beat #21 Oklahoma State 34-16 = +25 points
Auburn beat #5 Alabama 48-45 = +24 points
Memphis beat #19 Cincinnati 34-24 = +17 points
Kansas State beat #23 Iowa State 27-17 = +13 points
Virginia beat #24 Virginia Tech 39-30 = +11 points
Alabama lost to #15 Auburn 45-48 = +8 points
Nebraska lost to #17 Iowa 24-27 = +6 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
Colorado State lost to #20 Boise State 24-31 = -1 points
Cincinnati lost to #18 Memphis 24-34 = -2 points
Oregon State lost to #14 Oregon 10-24 = -2 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
Rutgers lost to #10 Penn State 6-27 = -5 points
Minnesota lost to #12 Wisconsin 17-38 = -7 points
Florida State lost to #11 Florida 17-40 = -8 points
Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points
Stanford lost to #16 Notre Dame 24-45 = -11 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points
Troy lost to #25 Appalachian State 13-48 = -34 points
Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points
TOP 25
Ohio State +140 points
Louisiana State +105 points
Auburn +103 points
Wisconsin +77 points
Georgia +71 points
Michigan +68 points
Oklahoma +63 points
Southern California +52 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Alabama +48 points
Florida +48 points
Arizona State +47 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Washington +41 points
Texas +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa +34 points
Memphis +34 points
Penn State +34 points
Iowa State +31 points
Clemson +28 points
U of Miami +28 points
Utah +27 points
North Carolina +24 points
Oklahoma State +24 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +28, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points.
Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have bene crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 7-0, (353-61) , an average of 50-9. +28ART seems to me to under-rate them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M, (yes, they were not good teams but it’s what Clemson and Ohio State would have done to those teams.
What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here si Clemson’s record this year:
Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points
Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points
Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points
Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points
Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points
North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points
Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
TOTAL: -139 points
Now let’s look at Ohio State:
Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points
Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points
Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points
Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points
Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points
Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points
Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points
Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
TOTAL: -189 points
So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU:
Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points
Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points
Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points
Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points
Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points
Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points
Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points
Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
TOTAL: -51 points
Georgia:
Vanderbilt lost to #3 Georgia 6-30 = -1 point
Murray State lost to #3 Georgia 17-63 = -23 points
Arkansas State lost to #3 Georgia 0-55 = -32 points
Notre Dame lost to #3 Georgia 17-23 = +17 points
Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia 14-43 = -6 points
South Carolina beat #3 Georgia 20-17 = +26 points
Kentucky lost to #10 Georgia 0-21 = -5 points
Florida lost to #8 Georgia 17-24 = +11 points
Missouri lost to #6 Georgia 0-27 = -7 points
Texas A&M lost to #4 Georgia 13-19 = +16 points
Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points
TOTAL: -27 points
Oklahoma:
Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points
Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points
Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points
West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points
Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points
Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points
Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
TOTAL: 0
Baylor:
(The Bears weren’t ranked until game 6)
Texas Tech lost to #22 Baylor 30-33 = +1 point
Oklahoma State lost to #18 Baylor 27-45 = -10 points
West Virginia lost to #12 Baylor 14-17 = +11 points
Texas Christian lost to #12 Baylor 23-29 = +8 points
Oklahoma beat #13 Baylor 34-31 = +16 points
Texas lost to #14 Baylor 10-24 = -2 points
Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points
TOTAL: -14 points
And, finally Utah:
Brigham Young lost to #14 Utah 12-30 = -6 points
Northern Illinois lost to #13 Utah 17-35 = -5 points
Idaho State lost to #11 Utah 0-31 = -16 points
Southern California beat #10 Utah 30-23= +23 points
Washington State lost to #19 Utah 13-38 = -18 points
Oregon State lost to #15 Utah 7-52 = -34 points
Arizona State lost to #13 Utah 3-21 = -5 points
California lost to #12 Utah 0-35 = -21 points
Washington lost to #9 Utah 28-33 = +12 points
UCLA lost to #7 Utah 3-49 = -27 points
Arizona lost to #7 Utah 7-35 = -9 yards
Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points
TOTAL: -116 points
As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +139 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +189, LSU +51, Georgia +27, Oklahoma 0, Baylor +14 and Utah +116. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result:
Ohio State +329 points
Clemson +167 points
LSU +156 points
Utah +143 points
Georgia +98 points
Oklahoma +63 points
Baylor +27 points
From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin can do any better against them. If form holds in the other games, Utah should be in over the Oklahoma-Baylor winner. If Georgia beats LSU both the Big 12 and Pac 12 could be shut out of the championship playoff. As that sort of thing adds up over the years, we will get closer and closer to an 8 team playoff, which I think we badly need.
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