SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc., down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc.). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 5 (10/1-2)
Georgia beat #8 Arkansas 37-0 Georgia +55 both ranked
Alabama beat #12 Mississippi 42-21 Alabama +35 both ranked
Stanford beat #3 Oregon 31-24 Stanford +30 Oregon -30
Cincinnati beat #9 Notre Dame 24-13 Cincinnati +28 both ranked
Kentucky beat #10 Florida 20-13 Kentucky +23 Florida -23
Arizona State beat #20 UCLA 42-23 Arizona State +25 UCLA -25
Mississippi State beat #15 Texas A&M 26-22 Mississippi State +15 Texas A&M -15
Oklahoma State beat #21 Baylor 24-14 Oklahoma State +15 both ranked
Kansas State lost to #6 Oklahoma 31-37 Kansas State +14 Oklahoma -14
Hawaii beat #18 Fresno State 27-24 Hawaii +11 Fresno State -11
Notre Dame lost to #7 Cincinnati 13-24 Notre Dame +8 both ranked
Mississippi lost to #1 Alabama 21-42 Mississippi +4 both ranked
Louisiana State lost to #22 Auburn 19-24 Louisiana State -1 Auburn +1
Louisville lost to #24 Wake Forest 34-37 Louisville -1 Wake Forest +1
Utah State lost to #13 Brigham Young 20-34 Utah State -1 Brigham Young +1
Indiana lost to #4 Penn State 0-24 Indiana -2 Penn State +2
Baylor lost to #19 Oklahoma State 14-24 Baylor -3 both ranked
Louisiana Tech lost to #23 North Carolina State 27-34 Louisiana Tech -4 North Carolina State +4
Boston College lost to #25 Clemson 13-19 Boston College -5 Clemson +5
Western Kentucky lost to #17 Michigan State 31-48 Western Kentucky -8 Michigan State +8
Wisconsin lost to #14 Michigan 17-38 Wisconsin -9 Michigan +9
Arkansas lost to #2 Georgia 0-37 Arkansas -13 both ranked
Maryland lost to #5 Iowa 14-51 Maryland -16 Iowa +16
Rutgers lost to #11 Ohio State 13-52 Rutgers -24 Ohio State +24
Louisiana-Monroe lost to #16 Coastal Carolina 6-59 Louisiana Monroe -43 Coastal Carolina +43
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Alabama +95
Georgia +85
Stanford +65
Iowa +64
Arkansas +46
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
West Virginia +36
Penn State +34
Brigham Young +31
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +136
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Michigan +61
Ohio State +43
Alabama +33
Cincinnati +33
Florida +31
Arkansas +29
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 5 (10/1-2)
Georgia beat #8 Arkansas 37-0 Georgia +55 both ranked
Alabama beat #12 Mississippi 42-21 Alabama +35 both ranked
Stanford beat #3 Oregon 31-24 Stanford +30 Oregon -30
Cincinnati beat #9 Notre Dame 24-13 Cincinnati +28 both ranked
Kentucky beat #10 Florida 20-13 Kentucky +23 Florida -23
Arizona State beat #20 UCLA 42-23 Arizona State +25 UCLA -25
Mississippi State beat #15 Texas A&M 26-22 Mississippi State +15 Texas A&M -15
Oklahoma State beat #21 Baylor 24-14 Oklahoma State +15 both ranked
Kansas State lost to #6 Oklahoma 31-37 Kansas State +14 Oklahoma -14
Hawaii beat #18 Fresno State 27-24 Hawaii +11 Fresno State -11
Notre Dame lost to #7 Cincinnati 13-24 Notre Dame +8 both ranked
Mississippi lost to #1 Alabama 21-42 Mississippi +4 both ranked
Louisiana State lost to #22 Auburn 19-24 Louisiana State -1 Auburn +1
Louisville lost to #24 Wake Forest 34-37 Louisville -1 Wake Forest +1
Utah State lost to #13 Brigham Young 20-34 Utah State -1 Brigham Young +1
Indiana lost to #4 Penn State 0-24 Indiana -2 Penn State +2
Baylor lost to #19 Oklahoma State 14-24 Baylor -3 both ranked
Louisiana Tech lost to #23 North Carolina State 27-34 Louisiana Tech -4 North Carolina State +4
Boston College lost to #25 Clemson 13-19 Boston College -5 Clemson +5
Western Kentucky lost to #17 Michigan State 31-48 Western Kentucky -8 Michigan State +8
Wisconsin lost to #14 Michigan 17-38 Wisconsin -9 Michigan +9
Arkansas lost to #2 Georgia 0-37 Arkansas -13 both ranked
Maryland lost to #5 Iowa 14-51 Maryland -16 Iowa +16
Rutgers lost to #11 Ohio State 13-52 Rutgers -24 Ohio State +24
Louisiana-Monroe lost to #16 Coastal Carolina 6-59 Louisiana Monroe -43 Coastal Carolina +43
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Alabama +95
Georgia +85
Stanford +65
Iowa +64
Arkansas +46
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
West Virginia +36
Penn State +34
Brigham Young +31
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +136
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Michigan +61
Ohio State +43
Alabama +33
Cincinnati +33
Florida +31
Arkansas +29
