SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bses the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for April, 2016. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and theper plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Jose Altuve, Astros 79 in 24 games = 3.29 per game 110PA = .718 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 76 in 25 games = 3.04 per game 111PA = .685 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 71 in 23 games = 3.09 per game 104PA = .682 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 66 in 25 games = 2.64 per game 107PA = .617 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 65 in 22 games = 2.95 per game 91PA = .714 per plate appearance
Logan Forsythe, Rays 64 in 22 games = 2.91 per game 94PA = .681 per plate appearance
Colby Rasmus, Astros 63 in 24 games = 2.63 per game 95PA = .663 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 114PA = .535 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 60 in 24 games = 2.50 per game 101PA = .594 per plate appearance
Chris Davis, Orioles 59 in 23 games = 2.57 per game 101PA = .584 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 36 in 25 games = 1.44 per game 111PA = .324 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 32 in 24 games = 1.33 per game 114PA = .280 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 30 in 22 games = 1.36 per game 102PA = .294 per plate appearance
Chris Davis, Orioles 29 in 23 games = 1.26 per game 101PA = .287 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 29 in 23 games = 1.26 per game 104PA = .279 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 29 in 25 games = 1.16 per game 107PA = .271 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 28 in 23 games = 1.22 per game 103PA = .272 per plate appearance
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 28 in 23 games = 1.22 per game 111PA = .252 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 27 in 23 games = 1.17 per game 104PA = .260 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 27 in 24 games = 1.13 per game 110PA = .245 per plate appearance
NAITONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 77 in 23 games = 3.35 per game 96PA = .802 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 74 in 22 games = 3.36 per game 102PA = .725 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 71 in 23 games = 3.09 per game 101PA = .703 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 69 in 25 games = 2.76 per game 113PA = .611 per plate appearance
Jean Segura, D-backs 65 in 25 games = 2.60 per game 116PA = .560 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 65 in 21 games = 2.60 per game 95PA = .684 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 64 in 22 games = 2.91 per game 99PA = .646 per plate appearance
Odubel Herrera, Phillies 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 104PA = .587 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 105PA = .581 per plate appearance
Starling Marte Pirates 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 107PA = .570 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 33 in 23 games = 1.43 per game 101PA = .327 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 32 in 22 games = 1.45 per game 99PA = .323 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 31 in 21 games = 1.48 per game 95PA = .326 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 31 in 23 games = 1.35 per game 96PA = .323 per plate appearance
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets 30 in 18 games = 1.67 per game 75PA = .400 per plate appearance
Michael Conforto, Mets 29 in 21 games = 1.38 per game 86PA = .337 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 29 in 22 games = 1.32 per game 102PA = .284 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 29 in 24 games = 1.21 per game 105PA = .276 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 29 in 24 games = 1.21 per game 109PA = .266 per plate appearance
Hunter Pence, Giants 29 in 25 games = 1.16 per game 109PA = .266 per plate appearance
Comment: For years the American League was producing the best and most hitters. It’s interesting that so far the National League numbers have been better. Joe Altuve leads the major in bases produced but his averages are worse than Harper or Story and Josh Donaldson would be fourth. Donaldson would be 4th or 5th in the rate of producing runs, depending on whether you are using games or plate appearances. Mookie Betts would be 6th or 7th. Bryce Harper is off to a much better star than his American league counter-part, Mike Trout. Baseball is cyclical. But it’s also a long season.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bses the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for April, 2016. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and theper plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Jose Altuve, Astros 79 in 24 games = 3.29 per game 110PA = .718 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 76 in 25 games = 3.04 per game 111PA = .685 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 71 in 23 games = 3.09 per game 104PA = .682 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 66 in 25 games = 2.64 per game 107PA = .617 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 65 in 22 games = 2.95 per game 91PA = .714 per plate appearance
Logan Forsythe, Rays 64 in 22 games = 2.91 per game 94PA = .681 per plate appearance
Colby Rasmus, Astros 63 in 24 games = 2.63 per game 95PA = .663 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 114PA = .535 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 60 in 24 games = 2.50 per game 101PA = .594 per plate appearance
Chris Davis, Orioles 59 in 23 games = 2.57 per game 101PA = .584 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 36 in 25 games = 1.44 per game 111PA = .324 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 32 in 24 games = 1.33 per game 114PA = .280 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 30 in 22 games = 1.36 per game 102PA = .294 per plate appearance
Chris Davis, Orioles 29 in 23 games = 1.26 per game 101PA = .287 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 29 in 23 games = 1.26 per game 104PA = .279 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 29 in 25 games = 1.16 per game 107PA = .271 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 28 in 23 games = 1.22 per game 103PA = .272 per plate appearance
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 28 in 23 games = 1.22 per game 111PA = .252 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 27 in 23 games = 1.17 per game 104PA = .260 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 27 in 24 games = 1.13 per game 110PA = .245 per plate appearance
NAITONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 77 in 23 games = 3.35 per game 96PA = .802 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 74 in 22 games = 3.36 per game 102PA = .725 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 71 in 23 games = 3.09 per game 101PA = .703 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 69 in 25 games = 2.76 per game 113PA = .611 per plate appearance
Jean Segura, D-backs 65 in 25 games = 2.60 per game 116PA = .560 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 65 in 21 games = 2.60 per game 95PA = .684 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 64 in 22 games = 2.91 per game 99PA = .646 per plate appearance
Odubel Herrera, Phillies 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 104PA = .587 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 105PA = .581 per plate appearance
Starling Marte Pirates 61 in 24 games = 2.54 per game 107PA = .570 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 33 in 23 games = 1.43 per game 101PA = .327 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 32 in 22 games = 1.45 per game 99PA = .323 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 31 in 21 games = 1.48 per game 95PA = .326 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 31 in 23 games = 1.35 per game 96PA = .323 per plate appearance
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets 30 in 18 games = 1.67 per game 75PA = .400 per plate appearance
Michael Conforto, Mets 29 in 21 games = 1.38 per game 86PA = .337 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 29 in 22 games = 1.32 per game 102PA = .284 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 29 in 24 games = 1.21 per game 105PA = .276 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 29 in 24 games = 1.21 per game 109PA = .266 per plate appearance
Hunter Pence, Giants 29 in 25 games = 1.16 per game 109PA = .266 per plate appearance
Comment: For years the American League was producing the best and most hitters. It’s interesting that so far the National League numbers have been better. Joe Altuve leads the major in bases produced but his averages are worse than Harper or Story and Josh Donaldson would be fourth. Donaldson would be 4th or 5th in the rate of producing runs, depending on whether you are using games or plate appearances. Mookie Betts would be 6th or 7th. Bryce Harper is off to a much better star than his American league counter-part, Mike Trout. Baseball is cyclical. But it’s also a long season.
