SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER MAY
American League
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 167 in 47 games (3.55) and 206 plate appearances (.811)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 150 in 48 games (3.125) and 201 plate appearances (.746)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 142 in 52 games (2.73) and 230 plate appearances (.617)
Jose Altuve, Astros 132 in 53 games (2.49) and 228 plate appearances (.579)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 130 in 50 games (2.60) and 223 plate appearances (.583)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 129 in 49 games (2.63) and 224 plate appearances (.576)
Logan Morrison, Rays 128 in 53 games (2.42) and 211 plate appearances (.607)
Miguel Sano, Twins 126 in 46 games (2.74) and 192 plate appearances (.656)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 126 in 53 games (2.38) and 227 plate appearances (.555)
Steven Souza, Rays 123 in 50 games (2.46) and 216 plate appearances (.569)
Runs Produced
Miguel Sano, Twins 60 in 46 games (1.30) and 192 plate appearances (.3125)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 60 in 48 games (1.25) and 201 plate appearances (.299)
Carlos Correa, Astros 60 in 48 games (1.25) and 213 plate appearances (.282)
George Springer, Astros 57 in 49 games (1.16) and 221 plate appearances (.258)
Avisall Garcia, White Sox 57 in 50 games (1.14) and 203 plate appearances (.281)
Mike Trout, Angels 56 in 47 games (1.19) and 206 plate appearances (.272)
Jose Altuve, Astros 56 in 53 games (1.06) and 228 plate appearances (.246)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 55 in 49 games (1.12) and 224 plate appearances (.246)
Starlin Castro, Yankees 55 in 50 games (1.10) and 217 plate appearances (.253)
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 54 in 53 games (1.02) and 229 plate appearances (.236)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 161 in 55 games (2.93) and 238 plate appearances (.676)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 147 in 47 games (3.13) and 208 plate appearances (.707)
Joey Votto, Reds 146 in 52 games (2.81) and 229 plate appearances (.638)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 145 in 51 games (2.84) and 226 plate appearances (.642)
Ryan Zimmerman, Wash 143 in 50 games (2.90) and 198 plate appearances (.722)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 139 in 49 games (2.84) and 226 plate appearances (.615)
Eric Thames, Braves 136 in 47 games (2.89) and 199 plate appearances (.683)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 135 in 51 games (2.65) and 219 plate appearances (.616)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 132 in 37 games (3.57) and 165 plate appearances (.800)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 132 in 54 games (2.44) and 233 plate appearances (.567)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 73 in 55 games (1.33) and 238 plate appearances (.307)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 72 in 47 games (1.53) and 208 plate appearances (.346)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 72 in 54 games (1.33) and 243 plate appearances (.296)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 67 in 51 games (1.31) and 226 plate appearances (.296)
Joey Votto, Reds 67 in 52 games (1.29) and 229 plate appearances (.293)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 64 in 50 games (1.28) and 195 plate appearances (.328)
Mark Reynolds, Rockies 62 in 51 games (1.22) and 209 plate appearances (.310)
Adam DuVall, Reds 61 in 51 games (1.20) and 215 plate appearances (.284)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 59 in 48 games (1.23) and 208 plate appearances (.284)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 58 in 54 games (1.07) and 233 plate appearances (.249)
Comment: Mike Trout was having the best year of a stellar career when he jammed his left thumb in a head-first slide and tore a ligament. He will be out for an unknown period of time but is expected back this season.
The race between Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper for MVP should be interesting. Harper will be more press, at least in the east, but Goldschmidt’s numbers could turn out to be just as good.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER MAY
American League
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 167 in 47 games (3.55) and 206 plate appearances (.811)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 150 in 48 games (3.125) and 201 plate appearances (.746)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 142 in 52 games (2.73) and 230 plate appearances (.617)
Jose Altuve, Astros 132 in 53 games (2.49) and 228 plate appearances (.579)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 130 in 50 games (2.60) and 223 plate appearances (.583)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 129 in 49 games (2.63) and 224 plate appearances (.576)
Logan Morrison, Rays 128 in 53 games (2.42) and 211 plate appearances (.607)
Miguel Sano, Twins 126 in 46 games (2.74) and 192 plate appearances (.656)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 126 in 53 games (2.38) and 227 plate appearances (.555)
Steven Souza, Rays 123 in 50 games (2.46) and 216 plate appearances (.569)
Runs Produced
Miguel Sano, Twins 60 in 46 games (1.30) and 192 plate appearances (.3125)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 60 in 48 games (1.25) and 201 plate appearances (.299)
Carlos Correa, Astros 60 in 48 games (1.25) and 213 plate appearances (.282)
George Springer, Astros 57 in 49 games (1.16) and 221 plate appearances (.258)
Avisall Garcia, White Sox 57 in 50 games (1.14) and 203 plate appearances (.281)
Mike Trout, Angels 56 in 47 games (1.19) and 206 plate appearances (.272)
Jose Altuve, Astros 56 in 53 games (1.06) and 228 plate appearances (.246)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 55 in 49 games (1.12) and 224 plate appearances (.246)
Starlin Castro, Yankees 55 in 50 games (1.10) and 217 plate appearances (.253)
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 54 in 53 games (1.02) and 229 plate appearances (.236)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 161 in 55 games (2.93) and 238 plate appearances (.676)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 147 in 47 games (3.13) and 208 plate appearances (.707)
Joey Votto, Reds 146 in 52 games (2.81) and 229 plate appearances (.638)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 145 in 51 games (2.84) and 226 plate appearances (.642)
Ryan Zimmerman, Wash 143 in 50 games (2.90) and 198 plate appearances (.722)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 139 in 49 games (2.84) and 226 plate appearances (.615)
Eric Thames, Braves 136 in 47 games (2.89) and 199 plate appearances (.683)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 135 in 51 games (2.65) and 219 plate appearances (.616)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 132 in 37 games (3.57) and 165 plate appearances (.800)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 132 in 54 games (2.44) and 233 plate appearances (.567)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 73 in 55 games (1.33) and 238 plate appearances (.307)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 72 in 47 games (1.53) and 208 plate appearances (.346)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 72 in 54 games (1.33) and 243 plate appearances (.296)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 67 in 51 games (1.31) and 226 plate appearances (.296)
Joey Votto, Reds 67 in 52 games (1.29) and 229 plate appearances (.293)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 64 in 50 games (1.28) and 195 plate appearances (.328)
Mark Reynolds, Rockies 62 in 51 games (1.22) and 209 plate appearances (.310)
Adam DuVall, Reds 61 in 51 games (1.20) and 215 plate appearances (.284)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 59 in 48 games (1.23) and 208 plate appearances (.284)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 58 in 54 games (1.07) and 233 plate appearances (.249)
Comment: Mike Trout was having the best year of a stellar career when he jammed his left thumb in a head-first slide and tore a ligament. He will be out for an unknown period of time but is expected back this season.
The race between Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper for MVP should be interesting. Harper will be more press, at least in the east, but Goldschmidt’s numbers could turn out to be just as good.
