SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bses the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for June, 2016. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Jose Altuve, Astros 238 in 79 games = 3.01 per game 362PA = .657 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 228 in 79 games = 2.89 per game 344PA = .663 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 228 in 79 games = 2.89 per game 354PA = .644 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 219 in 72 games = 3.04 per game 304PA = .720 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 211 in 74 games = 2.85 per game 332PA = .636 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 206 in 78 games = 2.64 per game 370PA = .557 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 205 in 80 games = 2.56 per game 350PA = .586 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 202 in 79 games = 2.56 per game 354PA = .571 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 201 in 79 games = 2.54 per game 341PA = .589 per plate appearance
George Springer, Astros 199 in 79 games = 2.52 per game 370PA = .538 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 195 in 76 games = 2.57 per game 341PA = .572 per plate appearance
Jackie Bradley, Red Sox 188 in 74 games = 2.54 per game 305PA = .616 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 156 in 65 games = 2.40 per game 286PA = .545 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 125 in 78 games = 1.60 per game 370PA = .338 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 101 in 80 games = 1.26 per game 350PA = .289 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 100 in 76 games = 1.32 per game 341PA = .293 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 100 in 79 games = 1.27 per game 354PA = .282 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 99 in 76 games = 1.30 per game 350PA = .283 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 96 in 79 games = 1.22 per game 341PA = .282 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 93 in 79 games = 1.18 per game 362PA = .257 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 92 in 79 games = 1.16 per game 354PA = .260 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 92 in 74 games = 1.24 per game 332PA = .277 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 92 in 79 games = 1.16 per game 344PA = .267 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
David Ortiz, Red Sox 81 in 72 games = 1.125 per game 304PA = .266 per plate appearance
Travis Shaw, Red Sox 75 in 78 games = 0.96 per game 309PA = .243 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 70 in 65 games = 1.08 per game 286PA = .245 per plate appearance
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 219 in 79 games = 2.77 per game 356PA = .615 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 211 in 77 games = 2.74 per game 341PA = .619 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 210 in 73 games = 2.88 per game 330PA = .636 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 208 in 76 games = 2.74 per game 344PA = .605 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 202 in 75 games = 2.69 per game 327PA = .618 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 201 in 77 games = 2.61 per game 334PA = .602 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 198 in 75 games = 2.64 per game 320PA = .619 per plate appearance
Corey Seager, Dodgers 198 in 80 games = 2.48 per game 343PA = .577 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 197 in 76 games = 2.59 per game 322PA = .612 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 193 in 73 games = 2.64 per game 324PA = .596 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 193 in 77 games = 2.51 per game 320PA = .603 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 186 in 75 games = 2.48 per game 329PA = .565 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 184 in 74 games = 2.49 per game 311PA = .592 per plate appearance
Marcell Ozuna, Marlins 183 in 76 games = 2.41 per game 314PA = .583 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 156 in 64 games = 2.44 per game 284PA = .549 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 101 in 77 games = 1.31 per game 341PA = .296 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 100 in 76 games = 1.32 per game 344PA = .291 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 89 in 73 games = 1.12 per game 330PA = .270 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 89 in 77 games = 1.16 per game 334PA = .266 per plate appearance
Jay Bruce, Reds 87 in 74 games = 1.18 per game 305PA = .285 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 87 in 75 games = 1.16 per game 320PA = .272 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 86 in 77 games = 1.12 per game 320PA = .269 per plate appearance
Ben Zobrist, Cubs 86 in 74 games = 1.16 per game 324PA = .265 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 85 in 75 games = 1.13 per game 327PA = .260 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 83 in 79 games = 1.05 per game 356PA = .233 per plate appearance
Dropped from April Top Ten:
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 82 in 74 games = 1.11 per game 311PA = .264 per plate appearance
Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals 80 in 71 games = 1.13 per game 287PA = .279 per plate appearance
Stephen Piscontty, Cardinals 76 in 73 games = 1.04 per game 317PA = .240 per plate appearance
Hunter Pence, Giants 56 in 50 games = 1.12 per game 208PA = .269 per plate appearance
Comments:
The injuries are starting to pile up: Jose Bautista is out for a while due to “turf toe”, (yes they still have that). Dexter Fowler is on the DL with a hamstring injury. So is Hunter Pence, who had to undergo surgery and will be out at least until August.
Jose Altuve was an interesting player but he’s becoming a star this year, with Joe Morgan-type numbers. But David Ortiz is by far the biggest base producer per plate appearance at .720 and he’s just ahead of Altuve per game at 3.04. . Is he really retiring? Mookie Betts is easily the best run producer at 1.60 per game and .338 per plate appearance. Is it because he’s batting ahead of Oritz or is Ortiz putting up bit numbers because of Betts? Whatever, they make a great team. Mike Trout is near the top of the standings, as he always is.
Paul Goldschmidt, after a slow start, has not only pushed his way into the NL lead in bases production, he made it to #1 in a month! But Matt Carpenter, playing at sea level, is producing bases at a slightly higher rate. Wil Myers of the Padres, whom I’d never heard of, also made a big move. Bryce Harper isn’t having the year he did last year, (he’s only batting .256) but he’s kind of lurking. I expect a big second half.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bses the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for June, 2016. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Jose Altuve, Astros 238 in 79 games = 3.01 per game 362PA = .657 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 228 in 79 games = 2.89 per game 344PA = .663 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 228 in 79 games = 2.89 per game 354PA = .644 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 219 in 72 games = 3.04 per game 304PA = .720 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 211 in 74 games = 2.85 per game 332PA = .636 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 206 in 78 games = 2.64 per game 370PA = .557 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 205 in 80 games = 2.56 per game 350PA = .586 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 202 in 79 games = 2.56 per game 354PA = .571 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 201 in 79 games = 2.54 per game 341PA = .589 per plate appearance
George Springer, Astros 199 in 79 games = 2.52 per game 370PA = .538 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 195 in 76 games = 2.57 per game 341PA = .572 per plate appearance
Jackie Bradley, Red Sox 188 in 74 games = 2.54 per game 305PA = .616 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 156 in 65 games = 2.40 per game 286PA = .545 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 125 in 78 games = 1.60 per game 370PA = .338 per plate appearance
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 101 in 80 games = 1.26 per game 350PA = .289 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 100 in 76 games = 1.32 per game 341PA = .293 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 100 in 79 games = 1.27 per game 354PA = .282 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 99 in 76 games = 1.30 per game 350PA = .283 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 96 in 79 games = 1.22 per game 341PA = .282 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 93 in 79 games = 1.18 per game 362PA = .257 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 92 in 79 games = 1.16 per game 354PA = .260 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 92 in 74 games = 1.24 per game 332PA = .277 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 92 in 79 games = 1.16 per game 344PA = .267 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
David Ortiz, Red Sox 81 in 72 games = 1.125 per game 304PA = .266 per plate appearance
Travis Shaw, Red Sox 75 in 78 games = 0.96 per game 309PA = .243 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 70 in 65 games = 1.08 per game 286PA = .245 per plate appearance
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 219 in 79 games = 2.77 per game 356PA = .615 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 211 in 77 games = 2.74 per game 341PA = .619 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 210 in 73 games = 2.88 per game 330PA = .636 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 208 in 76 games = 2.74 per game 344PA = .605 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 202 in 75 games = 2.69 per game 327PA = .618 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 201 in 77 games = 2.61 per game 334PA = .602 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 198 in 75 games = 2.64 per game 320PA = .619 per plate appearance
Corey Seager, Dodgers 198 in 80 games = 2.48 per game 343PA = .577 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 197 in 76 games = 2.59 per game 322PA = .612 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 193 in 73 games = 2.64 per game 324PA = .596 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 193 in 77 games = 2.51 per game 320PA = .603 per plate appearance
Dropped from May Top Ten:
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 186 in 75 games = 2.48 per game 329PA = .565 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 184 in 74 games = 2.49 per game 311PA = .592 per plate appearance
Marcell Ozuna, Marlins 183 in 76 games = 2.41 per game 314PA = .583 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 156 in 64 games = 2.44 per game 284PA = .549 per plate appearance
Runs Produced
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 101 in 77 games = 1.31 per game 341PA = .296 per plate appearance
Kris Bryant, Cubs 100 in 76 games = 1.32 per game 344PA = .291 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 89 in 73 games = 1.12 per game 330PA = .270 per plate appearance
Wil Myers, Padres 89 in 77 games = 1.16 per game 334PA = .266 per plate appearance
Jay Bruce, Reds 87 in 74 games = 1.18 per game 305PA = .285 per plate appearance
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 87 in 75 games = 1.16 per game 320PA = .272 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 86 in 77 games = 1.12 per game 320PA = .269 per plate appearance
Ben Zobrist, Cubs 86 in 74 games = 1.16 per game 324PA = .265 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 85 in 75 games = 1.13 per game 327PA = .260 per plate appearance
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 83 in 79 games = 1.05 per game 356PA = .233 per plate appearance
Dropped from April Top Ten:
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 82 in 74 games = 1.11 per game 311PA = .264 per plate appearance
Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals 80 in 71 games = 1.13 per game 287PA = .279 per plate appearance
Stephen Piscontty, Cardinals 76 in 73 games = 1.04 per game 317PA = .240 per plate appearance
Hunter Pence, Giants 56 in 50 games = 1.12 per game 208PA = .269 per plate appearance
Comments:
The injuries are starting to pile up: Jose Bautista is out for a while due to “turf toe”, (yes they still have that). Dexter Fowler is on the DL with a hamstring injury. So is Hunter Pence, who had to undergo surgery and will be out at least until August.
Jose Altuve was an interesting player but he’s becoming a star this year, with Joe Morgan-type numbers. But David Ortiz is by far the biggest base producer per plate appearance at .720 and he’s just ahead of Altuve per game at 3.04. . Is he really retiring? Mookie Betts is easily the best run producer at 1.60 per game and .338 per plate appearance. Is it because he’s batting ahead of Oritz or is Ortiz putting up bit numbers because of Betts? Whatever, they make a great team. Mike Trout is near the top of the standings, as he always is.
Paul Goldschmidt, after a slow start, has not only pushed his way into the NL lead in bases production, he made it to #1 in a month! But Matt Carpenter, playing at sea level, is producing bases at a slightly higher rate. Wil Myers of the Padres, whom I’d never heard of, also made a big move. Bryce Harper isn’t having the year he did last year, (he’s only batting .256) but he’s kind of lurking. I expect a big second half.
