Bases and Runs after May | Syracusefan.com

Bases and Runs after May

SWC75

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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.

The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the die4a of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total play appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Yoenis Cespedes as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.036. That’s better than Mike Rizzo (.961) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.121). But what does it mean? Cespedes didn’t do something 1,036 times. He didn’t do something 1.036 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.

My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced: 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistics: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find a that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bses the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?

The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs production”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.

Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for May, 2016. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Bases Produced
Jose Altuve, Astros 157 in 53 games = 2.96 per game 243PA = .646 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 152 in 46 games = 3.30 per game 202PA = .752 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 151 in 52 games = 2.90 per game 229PA = .659 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 147 in 50 games = 2.94 per game 226PA = .650 per plate appearance
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 142 in 52 games = 2.73 per game 246PA = .577 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 137 in 51 games = 2.69 per game 237PA = .578 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 137 in 51 games = 2.69 per game 227PA = .604 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 137 in 53 games = 2.58 per game 235PA = .583 per plate appearance
George Springer, Astros 137 in 53 games = 2.58 per game 242PA = .566 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 132 in 53 games = 2.49 per game 233PA = .567 per plate appearance
Jackie Bradley, Red Sox 132 in 50 games = 2.64 per game 203PA = .650 per plate appearance

Dropped from April Top Ten:
Chris Davis, Orioles 110 in 50 games = 2.20 per game 216PA = .509 per plate appearance
Colby Rasmus, Astros 97 in 48 games = 2.02 per game 204PA = .475 per plate appearance
Logan Forsythe, Rays 73 in 29 games = 2.52 per game 123PA = .593 per plate appearance


Runs Produced
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 77 in 52 games = 1.48 per game 246PA = .313 per plate appearance
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 66 in 51 games = 1.29 per game 237PA = .278 per plate appearance
Robinson Cano, Seahawks 66 in 51 games = 1.29 per game 227PA = .291 per plate appearance
Mike Trout, Angels 66 in 52 games = 1.27 per game 229PA = .288 per plate appearance
Jose Altuve, Astros 63 in 53 games = 1.19 per game 243PA = .259 per plate appearance
Ian Desmond, Rangers 63 in 51 games = 1.24 per game 218PA = .289 per plate appearance
Ian Kinsler, Tigers 61 in 48 games = 1.27 per game 220PA = .277 per plate appearance
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 59 in 53 games = 1.11 per game 233PA = .253 per plate appearance
David Ortiz, Red Sox 59 in 46 games = 1.28 per game 202PA = .292 per plate appearance
Travis Shaw, Red Sox 58 in 52 games = 1.12 per game 215PA = .270 per plate appearance

Dropped from April Top Ten:
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 56 in 50 games = 1.12 per game 228PA = .256 per plate appearance
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 56 in 53 games = 1.06 per game 235PA = .238 per plate appearance
Manny Machado, Orioles 54 in 50 games = 1.08 per game 226PA = .239 per plate appearance
Chris Davis, Orioles 52 in 50 games = 1.04 per game 216PA = .241 per plate appearance


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 143 in 53 games = 2.70 per game 237PA = .603 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 139 in 52 games = 2.67 per game 212PA = .656 per plate appearance
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 136 in 50 games = 2.72 per game 216PA = .630 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 136 in 50 games = 2.72 per game 218PA = .624 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 135 in 49 games = 2.76 per game 223PA = .605 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 134 in 51 games = 2.63 per game 208PA = .644 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 134 in 48 games = 2.79 per game 219PA = .612 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 132 in 50 games = 2.64 per game 224PA = .589 per plate appearance
Marcell Ozuna, Marlins 129 in 51 games = 2.53 per game 211PA = .611 per plate appearance
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 128 in 50 games = 2.56 per game 219PA = .584 per plate appearance

Dropped from Aoril Top Ten:
Odubel Herrera, Phillies 123 in 51 games = 2.41 per game 221PA = .557 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 121 in 50 games = 2.42 per game 220PA = .550 per plate appearance
Starling Marte Pirates 113 in 48 games = 2.35 per game 207PA = .546 per plate appearance
Jean Segura, D-backs 113 in 52 games = 2.17 per game 229PA = .493 per plate appearance

Runs Produced
Gregory Polanco, Pirates 66 in 50 games = 1.32 per game 216PA = .306 per plate appearance
Ben Zobrist, Cubs 65 in 48 games = 1.35 per game 212PA = .307 per plate appearance
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 64 in 50 games = 1.28 per game 218PA = .294 per plate appearance
Chris Bryant, Cubs 63 in 49 games = 1.29 per game 223PA = .283 per plate appearance
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 62 in 50 games = 1.24 per game 224PA = .277 per plate appearance
Stephen Piscontty, Cardinals 59 in 50 games = 1.18 per game 220PA = .268 per plate appearance
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 56 in 50 games = 1.12 per game 220PA = .255 per plate appearance
Hunter Pence, Giants 56 in 49 games = 1.14 per game 206PA = .278 per plate appearance
Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals 55 in 50 games = 1.10 per game 190PA = .289 per plate appearance
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 54 in 51 games = 1.06 per game 208PA = .260 per plate appearance

Dropped from April Top Ten:
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets 53 in 47 games = 1.13 per game 192PA = .276 per plate appearance
Bryce Harper, Nationals 53 in 51 games = 1.04 per game 212PA = .250 per plate appearance
Dexter Fowler, Cubs 52 in 48 games = 1.08 per game 219PA = .237 per plate appearance
Trevor Story, Rockies 52 in 49 games = 1.06 per game 223PA = .233 per plate appearance
Michael Conforto, Mets 39 in 45 games = 0.87 per game 177PA = .220 per plate appearance

Comments: One reason I love these stats is that they allow for comparisons of very different players. José Altuve is 5-6, 165 and doesn’t have big home run power or walk much but he hits for high averages, gets a lot of extra base hits and is leading the AL in steals for the third year in a row. David Ortiz is is 6-3 230 and has no speed. He hits for good averages and has tremendous power. They are 1-2 in bases produced in the AL, with Altuve with the most but Ortiz with the best average. The AL standings are full of Red Sox, (4 guys in each top ten. With the season the Cubs are having, you wonder if this season will end in Fenway Park and Wrigley Field. Wouldn’t that be something?
 
Good stuff. One minor point. Altuve is on track for 25+ HRs this year. Pretty amazing when you follow his background and how the Astros signed him.
 
Good stuff. One minor point. Altuve is on track for 25+ HRs this year. Pretty amazing when you follow his background and how the Astros signed him.


That's why I said "big" home run power. Like Popi's.
 

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