Big Kentucky Derby preview today

[IthacaBarrel]

best two horses as of right now and the two favorites to win the derby go head to head in the Florida Derby, both are undefeated. This is actually very rare and hasn't happened in 40 years. Nyquist trained by Doug O'Neil is shipping in from California. Mohaymen ( beautiful gray horse btw) trained by Kieran McLaughlin is the Florida local this winter via NY in the spring/ summer/ fall. Glad that the two trainers and owners aren't ducking anything this close to the Derby. Also the two horses are from the two hottest stallions/ sires in horse racing right now as well. Big race today, probably be a better race than the actual derby really

Anyone interested race should be on NBC sports channel around 6:30.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Wow, nyquist just blew it out. Won easily, and there you have your 2016 derby favorite. Might start talking triple crown if he gets the derby...

 

[upperdeck]

Mohaymen had no shot and it showed.. now you really have to wonder about the derby for that horse. the florida race was all about guessing which horse was going to come in 2nd. Nyquist is the favorite right now but there are a couple I like that may not get enough points to run until the preakness

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think Mohaymen threw a dud by far the worst race he has ever run, he looked liked he was full of run at the turn and then just had nothing. He was 6-0 until that point, I wouldn't worry at all about the derby for him, he will run better races. I still think there are some horses coming on that will run in the bluegrass and wood next weekend. I do think you are underestimating Mohaymen, he threw a clunker yesterday, maybe he bled, don't know but he still has a shot for the derby.

Some nice lightly raced horses in the wood next weekend, with big trainers will be interesting if any make a big statement. mo tom in lousiansa trained by Tom Amoss is a horse to keep an eye on as well. ( owned by Tim benson owner of the saints and Pelicans)

One thing is for sure Uncle Mo has to be the hottest stallion out there right now, his first year 3 year olds are every where on the derby trail. Amazing

 

[upperdeck]

I was in florida talking with some racing guys since we didnt feel like fighting the FL derby crowd.. Mohaymen had a great record but they all felt vastly overrated and his Speed numbers are cray low. Cherry Wine is my horse. just outside the top 20 to get in.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I was in florida talking with some racing guys since we didnt feel like fighting the FL derby crowd.. Mohaymen had a great record but they all felt vastly overrated and his Speed numbers are cray low. Cherry Wine is my horse. just outside the top 20 to get in.

Mohaymen has won 4 grade 2 stake races already, his numbers going two turns are all 95 speed figure and he was probably eased coming in with a couple of those. Nyquist only had one better than that but going 7F not two turns at Santa Anita ( 101 beyer). That said nyquist certainly proved to be the best and the 1-1/4 mile shouldn't be an issue, don't know why people were so hung up on this, must be his Mom was a sprinter because Uncle Mo was classic distance all day. Nyquist definitely the favorite but still some preps left prior. ( bluegrass, wood, and Ark derby)

Cherry Wine looks like they will enter in the Arkansas Derby? Sired by paddy o Prado who was probably a better grass horse than dirt but Dale Romans is a great horseman, certainly can't rule them out. I took a shot with his horse takeittothedge in the FL derby but he came up flat. Baffert has another nice horse going the AK derby route in Cupid who is still green but fast for sure. I am interested to see the Wood field. Some nice horses in there as well. Linda Rice has a real nice horse ( Matt King Coal) and Chad Brown has a couple as well. I like his horse My Man Sam that likes to come from way off the pace.

Next couple weeks should be interesting but can't get married to a KY derby favorite 4-5 weeks before the race, although the favorite has won the last 3 and 4 out of 5 I think.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Cherry Wine going to need some help to get in to the derby, I bet he gets in but will be close. Think he is 23rd right now, ran a decent 3rd at Bluegrass.

If Cupid runs a big race in AK derby, he will be 2nd favorite I have to believe behind Nyquist

 

[upperdeck]

yeah.. ran a good race but needs a bit more to challenge. one top 20 horse isnt nominated so it needs 2 more to sit out and pretty good chance that happens. lots of horses with spotty records who may not actually run. wine had to wait for brody's to clear and then try to catch up and couldnt do it. my man sam got a running start as well. all 3 ran the same race though i think Wine comes in 2nd but he was just ridden out and not fully pushed.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

yeah.. ran a good race but needs a bit more to challenge. one top 20 horse isnt nominated so it needs 2 more to sit out and pretty good chance that happens. lots of horses with spotty records who may not actually run. wine had to wait for brody's to clear and then try to catch up and couldnt do it. my man sam got a running start as well. all 3 ran the same race though i think Wine comes in 2nd but he was just ridden out and not fully pushed.

My man Sam is a deep deep closer, not surprised the race he ran. I think Wine gets in. AK Derby this weekend. Cupid will got to lead and try to wire the field. Going to be interesting because there will be some early speed to test Nyquist in the Derby which will set up for somebody from way back... I never bet favorites so I will be looking but Cherry Wine, Sam, and Mo Tom will be horses to look at. Horses at 3 progress ay such different rates.

I thought Outwork looked formidable in the Wood as well. Off track though

 

[SUintheVille]

Anyone going to be in town for the Derby or Oaks? Fun time.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Anyone going to be in town for the Derby or Oaks? Fun time.

No not going to make it..going to the Belmont though

 

[upperdeck]

I see Cupid looked awful and is now out of the Derby having surgery monday.

 

[upperdeck]

good chance Oscar nominated doesnt run since it will cost the owner $200K, cherry wine would then need 4 more to drop.. That entire wood field is now in and that was a slow race too.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I see Cupid looked awful and is now out of the Derby having surgery monday.

Throat surgery for Cupid, probably the reason why he ran 10th

 

[upperdeck]

you ever try the betmix software?

 

[djcon57]

I was at Santa Anita Derby. It was a mud pit so I don't take anything except Exaggerator will be the money bet if it's raining on Derby day and I have no faith in Mor Spirit outside of a perfect run.

Nyquist will be my pick in the Derby and the Preakness.
Shame Songbird won't run, but I get it. She should mop the floor with the fillies.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

you ever try the betmix software?

I have but not enough to really form an opinion on it. I got into thorograph for a while to but at the end of the day I always come back to the DRF...ragozin sheets every so often as well.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I was at Santa Anita Derby. It was a mud pit so I don't take anything except Exaggerator will be the money bet if it's raining on Derby day and I have no faith in Mor Spirit outside of a perfect run.

Nyquist will be my pick in the Derby and the Preakness.
Shame Songbird won't run, but I get it. She should mop the floor with the fillies.

Songbird is owned by the same people that ran the filly Eight Belles in the derby 8-9 years ago. That did not end well, no way we're they going to enter her in the derby. I do think she would win the derby, she was the best 2 year old horse in the country and I still think the best 3 year old, but she needs to be challenged before we crown her. What really sucks is she is out of the oaks with a minor sickness as she has to stop training for a a bit.

I never really bet favorites but derby has gone that way last 3 of 4. Have to see what the final field looks like before I go all in. I think there could be quite a few horses that struggle with the distance

 

[djcon57]

Hope everyone read this all along. Still expect Nyquist to win Preakness and have trouble with the Belmont, but you never know!

The bets were easy, but hell the $5 Tri paid 400 bucks. I'll take it!

 

[kirbivore]

I was at Santa Anita Derby. It was a mud pit so I don't take anything except Exaggerator will be the money bet if it's raining on Derby day and I have no faith in Mor Spirit outside of a perfect run.

Nyquist will be my pick in the Derby and the Preakness.
Shame Songbird won't run, but I get it. She should mop the floor with the fillies.

 

[kirbivore]

Hope everyone read this all along. Still expect Nyquist to win Preakness and have trouble with the Belmont, but you never know!

The bets were easy, but hell the $5 Tri paid 400 bucks. I'll take it!

had the 11 and 13 for the exacta, but chose 15 instead of 5 to miss out on the trifecta.

 

[upperdeck]

Hope everyone read this all along. Still expect Nyquist to win Preakness and have trouble with the Belmont, but you never know!

The bets were easy, but hell the $5 Tri paid 400 bucks. I'll take it!

gun runner was the only horse I really didnt see out of the top 5-6, but then after the top 2 everything else was a guess. Monyman looked better. strange to me the exacta paid so well and such a low triple. the whole field was 20-30 range it seemed. that would mean many keyed the 2 fav in the triple but bet against it in the exacta.

the way it finished i think 6-7 of these horses might come back now for the preakness and will more speed types show up to change the pace

 

[upperdeck]

well strike that, it now looks like almost no one is coming back to challenge.. mohaymen is skipping everything. exaggerator may be the only horse left. I wonder how big the field will even me and if many of the better ones will wait for the belmont especially with so many late closers being in this group of horses.

 

[djcon57]

gun runner was the only horse I really didnt see out of the top 5-6, but then after the top 2 everything else was a guess. Monyman looked better. strange to me the exacta paid so well and such a low triple. the whole field was 20-30 range it seemed. that would mean many keyed the 2 fav in the triple but bet against it in the exacta.

the way it finished i think 6-7 of these horses might come back now for the preakness and will more speed types show up to change the pace

Yep...probably a lot of Nyq/Exag/ALL types

Mine were strictly Nyq/Exag/Mon-Gun-Destin.

I would expect the money in the preakness will be to find the 2nd place horse like last year.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

IF AP didn't win Triple Crown last year people would be much higher and enthused on Nyquist. He's undefeated, answered the 10F distance and will probably win the Preakness barring any unforeseen circumstances. The 1-1/2 mile distance with a bunch and I mean a bunch of closers for the Belmont will be the only question left to answer. It will be a very very tough race to win for him because of the field that is setting up. That said, from the look of his gallop out Saturday I don't think he is going to let anyone past him very easily nor do I think he will be distance challenged. I can see a few horses going after him early though...

Nyquist has won 5 G1 stake races at this point, incredible. His resume is perfect. Uncle Lino from California might have a shot in Preakness. He just keeps answering the questions. It's really too bad Songbird got sick because what a race that would have been in the Preakness.

I am more interested in seeing Cal Chrome and Beholder lock up in the Pacific Classic later in the summer. Beholder was fantastic yesterday at SA.