i think I can talk myself into giving Shafer more time

[Millhouse]

it should be obvious that this is total speculation but there's my disclaimer

marrone was a miserable guy who hated recruiting and probably belly ached a lot about how hard it was. shafer might've believed everything marrone said about it, why wouldn't he?

so he hires mcdonald as a hail mary recruiting whiz. obviously a mistake.

so whether or not lester is the right guy at offensive coordinator, shafer can at least tell coyle that he knows the type of offense he wants to run multiple pro-style hybrid blah blah and that his original mistake is not one that will be repeated. you fire a guy for errors that will keep happening

this year might stink because of the defense but you'd have to be stupid if that's the reason you fire shafer. we're going to have down years on defense once in a while, they're the exception

coyle likes multiple offenses, maybe he doesn't need to see that much this year. 5 wins, a competently crappy offense that isn't unusual in its crappiness. shafer can make mcdonald (and marrone) the fall guys and it's somewhat believable

 

[Finwad32]

Whoa whoa whoa, I see you rationalizing this. I'd just like to know, what has occurred in the past 3 months to alter your hardline stance? I know I'm just spit-balling here without any evidence, but, wasn't it if the offense doesn't improve make the change?

And I'm not saying this was your stance on Syracuse specifically, but, for any program any place. That, a coach should be able to come in within 2 years and be able to succeed if he ever will?

 

[Millhouse]

Whoa whoa whoa, I see you rationalizing this. I'd just like to know, what has occurred in the past 3 months to alter your hardline stance? I know I'm just spit-balling here without any evidence, but, wasn't it if the offense doesn't improve make the change?

And I'm not saying this was your stance on Syracuse specifically, but, for any program any place. That, a coach should be able to come in within 2 years and be able to succeed if he ever will?

I don't know when they hired coyle but boise state is a hard to pin down offense that relies on very versatile players. shafer and lester can blame mcdonald for everything that went wrong, credibly appeal to coyle's presumed affinity for that style of offense, and as long as they don't all over themselves, will be show large improvement on offense almost by default.

i think marrone is the most dour soul destroying force in the world and it just seems plausible that shafer thought recruiting would be harder than it actually is as head coach

 

[Alsacs]

If we don't see a college offense that looks like a D-1 offense then I don't care. We need a college football D-1 offense and then I will understand giving more time assuming we win atleast 5 games. I don't care what happens unless we have a top 50 offense if we go 4-8 we need a new coach.
14-23 would not be good enough.

 

[TheCusian]

If we don't see a college offense that looks like a D-1 offense then I don't care. We need a college football D-1 offense and then I will understand giving more time assuming we win atleast 5 games. I don't care what happens unless we have a top 50 offense if we go 4-8 we need a new coach. 14-23 would not be good enough.

Top 50? You need to adjust that a touch. We finished outside of 100. Assuming Mcit and injuries are worth what 30ish%? That gets us into the 80-75 range. Better playmakers another 10-15 spots (let's say 65). Maybe playing less imposing D's and a slightly easier schedule? 60. Maybe.

 

[TheCusian]

it should be obvious that this is total speculation but there's my disclaimer marrone was a miserable guy who hated recruiting and probably belly ached a lot about how hard it was. shafer might've believed everything marrone said about it, why wouldn't he? so he hires mcdonald as a hail mary recruiting whiz. obviously a mistake. so whether or not lester is the right guy at offensive coordinator, shafer can at least tell coyle that he knows the type of offense he wants to run multiple pro-style hybrid blah blah and that his original mistake is not one that will be repeated. you fire a guy for errors that will keep happening this year might stink because of the defense but you'd have to be stupid if that's the reason you fire shafer. we're going to have down years on defense once in a while, they're the exception coyle likes multiple offenses, maybe he doesn't need to see that much this year. 5 wins, a competently crappy offense that isn't unusual in its crappiness. shafer can make mcdonald (and marrone) the fall guys and it's somewhat believable

It still all comes down to Lester being the guy to getting us on track offensively. I've bee. Saying this for awhile - if the offense shows improvement (60's) and it gets steadily better, regardless of the D: Shafer's back with a min of 4-5 wins.

 

[Alsacs]

Top 50? You need to adjust that a touch. We finished outside of 100. Assuming Mc. . . . it and injuries are worth what 30ish%? That gets us into the 80-75 range. Better playmakers another 10-15 spots (let's say 65). Maybe playing less imposing D's and a slightly easier schedule? 60. Maybe.

If we go 5-7 I can live with 60s but if we go 4-8 it has to be top 50 or sorry 14-23.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

If Lester cannot put a functional O out there it should be a huge indictment of Shafer's ability to make hires/decisions.

Shafer was an internal hire. He knew the O players on the roster intimately. Yet he chose to go in a different direction.

He had McDonald as OC for an entire year. If he was that bad why have him back for year 2? Then he fires the OC mid season which never happens.

Lester becomes OC and produces arguably the worst stretch of O in SU's history. You cannot blame the system as it works elsewhere. As QB coach it was Lester's job to know the O, so even if it was not his preferred system, he should have been able to make it functional. In addition Lester has zero experience outside of DIII. The only higher level O he has been exposed to is Cubit, who is a mediocre OC at best. I cannot think of another P5 OC who has been hired with similar experience as Lester.

On top of that Shafer didn't even check the market for available OCs. It is irresponsible to not even take a look.

IMO Shafer's fate should be tied to Lester. He doesn't deserve another chance at picking an OC. Especially when both of his previous choices were big risks. Plus Shafer only seems interested in hiring his buddies. So who is left Cubit?

I hope that Lester is the next O guru. But IMO taking a gamble on him after already gambling and losing on McDonald is too risky.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think the decision will be pretty easy. It will be seen on the field. If they stay relatively healthy and the offense is average and the defense is too, he will probably win enough games to save his job. The D will get torched at times but they figure out enough ways to raise hell and get some stops/ turnovers. It's the offense that will save his job and as many have indicated Lester, who I really like, hope they get it done. To me Lester was always in position A to replace GMC if he imploded

 

[Orangello]

The question I keep asking myself is do I believe that SS is the guy who will make us a perenial top 25 program year in and year out. I believe that the offense should be significantly better just becuase last year's was so rotten but recognize that it could be poor again. Facilities were surely an issue but that has been addressed in spades now. The university will also likely be committing a big bunch of $$$ to a major renovation of the Dome in the near term. We are in the big boy club and are getting the ACC $$$. From where I sit, there are very few serious excuses anymore as to why we can't at least be in the top 25 every year (or damn close to it). Coyles job #1 is going to be righting the FB ship and ensuring that we get back to where we should be IMHO. I love this staff as people but I don't believe they are that long term solution. Having said that, I'm OK giving them one more year if we manage at least 5 wins and look competitive in most of our games (I think LSU and FSU cream us). I believe there are going to be a lot HC firings at P5 programs at the end of this season (i.e. seller's market). We may need/want to wait one more year anyway to get the right person rather than settling for the wrong guy.

 

[upperdeck]

i think the D will be fine. probably make a few more mistakes but will keep us in most games.

really its about the offense not stinking

last year Vill, Lou, Wake -- were bad under 350
clemson, bc, pitt, duke -- god awful under 200
ND, cent mich, FSU, , nc st - OK . in that we had 300-400- ish

maryland was great over 600

how did we have over 400 against FSU/ND and then nothing else after the maryland game, shows you just how injured we were.

can we get 50 yds more a game? that moves us up close to 40 spots and thats only 380 a game.. getting to 400 moves us up 60 spots.. 75 yds thats only 10 yds more a possession, 4-5 more first downs.

does hunt alone mean we get 1-2 FS more on his legs. if healthy i think he has shown that

does one WR drop 1 less ball, lets hope so

does RB make one guy miss once a game again lets hope so

will we get 1 more FD a game because of scheme/play calling

will a healthy Oline mean once a game we convert 3rd and 2..

lets hope we see 3 over 500 games
5 over 400 games
and none in the I cant believe we suck like this under 300 games..

 

[Millhouse]

I think the decision will be pretty easy. It will be seen on the field. If they stay relatively healthy and the offense is average and the defense is too, he will probably win enough games to save his job. The D will get torched at times but they figure out enough ways to raise hell and get some stops/ turnovers. It's the offense that will save his job and as many have indicated Lester, who I really like, hope they get it done. To me Lester was always in position A to replace GMC if he imploded

the biggest strike against Shafer is that he didn't unload mcdonald earlier. if you have to think about having plan b's on your staff, you don't have a plan a. but maybe that goes back to him being terrified of recruiting - felt like he needed to give mcdonald a full recruiting class?

 

[Ozcuse]

A quarterback! A quarterback! My kingdom for a competent quarterback!

 

[OrangeAl]

If we go 5-7 I can live with 60s but if we go 4-8 it has to be top 50 or sorry 14-23.

A top 50 offense with only a 4-8 record? That would mean a really weak defense. I don't think the D will be that bad.

 

[PhatOrange]

can we get 50 yds more a game? that moves us up close to 40 spots and thats only 380 a game.. getting to 400 moves us up 60 spots.. 75 yds thats only 10 yds more a possession, 4-5 more first downs.

when you look at it like this, it's a play here or there. To me then, it more boils down to redzone scoring. If we convert the averages for TD's in the redzone we'll be that much better off even without the yards.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The thing is, he brings the right defensive philosophy and scheme. Can he learn from past mistakes (I'm looking at you, punts on the opponent's side of the field) and get a Dome appropriate offense?

The ceiling is really high if he can. If we keep sucking on offense and willingly give the ball away punting the ceiling is pretty low.

 

[SUFan44]

the biggest strike against Shafer is that he didn't unload mcdonald earlier. if you have to think about having plan b's on your staff, you don't have a plan a. but maybe that goes back to him being terrified of recruiting - felt like he needed to give mcdonald a full recruiting class?

Plausibly true. I agree with you about the Plan A/B thing - but coming off a bowl win it's tough to fire your OC, especially given he had allegedly produced Ishmael and a few others from FL.

Given all we know now, he should have done it ASAP. But hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Alsacs]

A top 50 offense with only a 4-8 record? That would mean a really weak defense. I don't think the D will be that bad.

I can give SS a mulligan if our young D struggles while our offense does well. If we 4-8 the offense better be really good or swe need a new HC.

 

[chakka3421]

it should be obvious that this is total speculation but there's my disclaimer

marrone was a miserable guy who hated recruiting and probably belly ached a lot about how hard it was. shafer might've believed everything marrone said about it, why wouldn't he?

so he hires mcdonald as a hail mary recruiting whiz. obviously a mistake.

so whether or not lester is the right guy at offensive coordinator, shafer can at least tell coyle that he knows the type of offense he wants to run multiple pro-style hybrid blah blah and that his original mistake is not one that will be repeated. you fire a guy for errors that will keep happening

this year might stink because of the defense but you'd have to be stupid if that's the reason you fire shafer. we're going to have down years on defense once in a while, they're the exception

coyle likes multiple offenses, maybe he doesn't need to see that much this year. 5 wins, a competently crappy offense that isn't unusual in its crappiness. shafer can make mcdonald (and marrone) the fall guys and it's somewhat believable

What's you talkin about Willis?

True Marrone did not like recruiting (told me that directly) but he could take baloney and make it work thru game planning. Shafer is betting the farm on Lester...McD could not game plan - he had thousands of plays but could never put together a plan.

If Lester can game plan - while institutiting fewer plays - we will do better by definition. Marrone said once that when he reduced the playbook down to below 50 plays, team simply executed better because they could do more reps on fewer plays and fewer assignments got missed in a game setting. Not like what he was used to in pros when you get to practice all day long.

I actually think, as long as Hunt remains healthy, we go 6-6 just because of his ability to run. Hunt did it 2 years ago with fewer weapons, no reason to think he won't do it again this year.

 

[Millhouse]

I can give SS a mulligan if our young D struggles while our offense does well. If we 4-8 the offense better be really good or swe need a new HC.

if the offense is bad again, they're going to at least need a couple outbursts to show what's possible. preferably (from the coaches' perspective) late in the season. something like the end of 2009

 

[Alsacs]

If Lester cannot put a functional O out there it should be a huge indictment of Shafer's ability to make hires/decisions.

Shafer was an internal hire. He knew the O players on the roster intimately. Yet he chose to go in a different direction.

He had McDonald as OC for an entire year. If he was that bad why have him back for year 2? Then he fires the OC mid season which never happens.

Lester becomes OC and produces arguably the worst stretch of O in SU's history. You cannot blame the system as it works elsewhere. As QB coach it was Lester's job to know the O, so even if it was not his preferred system, he should have been able to make it functional. In addition Lester has zero experience outside of DIII. The only higher level O he has been exposed to is Cubit, who is a mediocre OC at best. I cannot think of another P5 OC who has been hired with similar experience as Lester.

On top of that Shafer didn't even check the market for available OCs. It is irresponsible to not even take a look.

IMO Shafer's fate should be tied to Lester. He doesn't deserve another chance at picking an OC. Especially when both of his previous choices were big risks. Plus Shafer only seems interested in hiring his buddies. So who is left Cubit?

I hope that Lester is the next O guru. But IMO taking a gamble on him after already gambling and losing on McDonald is too risky.

Welcome back.

 

[Millhouse]

i reserve the right to take this back when they punt it into the end zone from the opponents 24 yard line

 

[Alsacs]

if the offense is bad again, they're going to at least need a couple outbursts to show what's possible. preferably (from the coaches' perspective) late in the season. something like the end of 2009

That would be too little too late for me. If we are going 4-8 like in 2009 and offense clicks like it did against UConn that last game that wouldn't be enough.
We need to score in the 20s against ACC competition. We have only scored in the 30s 2 times in 21 games against P5 competition in SS's 2 years. 1 game vs Wake last year had 2 Def TDs and 1 game in 2013 against BC where scored in the last 20 seconds.

 

[skytop44]

We'll have a good idea once we see the product all the coaches put out there for the first 6 games IMO.

 

[TheCusian]

If Lester cannot put a functional O out there it should be a huge indictment of Shafer's ability to make hires/decisions. Shafer was an internal hire. He knew the O players on the roster intimately. Yet he chose to go in a different direction. He had McDonald as OC for an entire year. If he was that bad why have him back for year 2? Then he fires the OC mid season which never happens. Lester becomes OC and produces arguably the worst stretch of O in SU's history. You cannot blame the system as it works elsewhere. As QB coach it was Lester's job to know the O, so even if it was not his preferred system, he should have been able to make it functional. In addition Lester has zero experience outside of DIII. The only higher level O he has been exposed to is Cubit, who is a mediocre OC at best. I cannot think of another P5 OC who has been hired with similar experience as Lester. On top of that Shafer didn't even check the market for available OCs. It is irresponsible to not even take a look. IMO Shafer's fate should be tied to Lester. He doesn't deserve another chance at picking an OC. Especially when both of his previous choices were big risks. Plus Shafer only seems interested in hiring his buddies. So who is left Cubit? I hope that Lester is the next O guru. But IMO taking a gamble on him after already gambling and losing on McDonald is too risky.

Mostly agree.

I don't think Mcit's version of the "n-zone" or whatever was run like it was supposed to. I think he tinkered with it without understanding it and then ran it with poor personnel. I don't think Lester thought much of it and since it didn't make sense he had a hard time trying to run it. And installing something new with no bye weeks till the end wasn't going to work. Throw in injuries and freshman QB's? Yuck.

You're right that it comes down to Lester. Shafer went all in. We'll see if it works.