I think I've figured this out a little bit...ACC expansion...

Discussion in 'Syracuse Football Board' started by Jake, Sep 18, 2011.

  1. Jake

    Jake Moderator Staff Member

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    As of this afternoon, I think I've figured out Swofford's #1 motivation in adding Pitt and Syracuse. First you have to go back to last year and all the talk when Nebraska was being lured to the Big 10. When rumors were swirling about a massive change in the landscape, schools were all making secret alliances.

    The one constant that I was hearing about Syracuse, was that we were tied to ND, I think it even leaked publically at one point. The thought was that we were tying ourselves to ND...but I think it was the other way around. ND was tying itself to Syracuse and Pitt - thinking that where ever ND went, they wanted to have at least one other small private school with it and there is also some connection to Pitt that ND has kept sacred over the years.

    So what Swofford did was take away ND's security blankets and has now put ND on an island...and increased his chances of landing them. This completely explains Swarbick's reaction to yesterday's move. ("This was not any of the scenarios that I had predicted"..because he thought that he was tied to Pitt and SU). There is no doubt in my mind that teams #15 and #16 will come from the very small pool of ND, Rutgers and UCONN. UCONN is doing what it can to be #15, because I think everyone realizes that slot #16 will be held out for ND until the very last minute.

    Here's why this gets really dangerous for Rutgers...as much as we or Rutgers like to say we carry the NYC market...well the truth is...ND carries it much better..so Swofford takes UCONN at #15 and then has nothing but a win-win situation left for spot #16. I think he knows that there are no scenarios where ND AND Rutgers go to the big ten...because the big ten knows that if they get ND, they have the NYC market and don't need Rutgers and if the Big Ten can't get ND...i'm not sure they excpand at all and take another mouth to feed without adding any revenue.

    I now think the ND and Texas to the ACC for all sports but football was a Texas bluff in order to get a better deal out of the Pac soon to be 16.

    Once Texas goes to the Pac 16, ND's chances of staying independant go up in smoke. 64 seats will be in the BCS party...and none of them are going to be willing to hold a special spot for ND now that Texas is in the fold.

    Now ND has a choice to make. Go to the Big Ten and really be a fish out of water...or go to the ACC where the fit seems much better.

    As a complete unreleated side note...TCU got by Marinetto. Completely and utterly F*cked. They would have probably been a player to get into the SEC with Texas aTm. Feel awful for them...they were rescued from a sinking ship, but their helicopter just crashed.
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  2. 44cuse

    44cuse Starter

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    +1

    That feels like the landscape to me.

    44cuse
  3. jordoo

    jordoo Hall of Fame

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    At his point I'm hoping we (as in the ACC, how weird is that sheet) lock up UConn and ND follows.
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  4. cuseguy

    cuseguy Hall of Fame

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    Thinking seems spot on.

    Let's see if ND is willing to give up its indepedence in football. That's a big leap for them.

    In the end, I hope it's Rutgers and UConn because it creates a nice group of Northeast schools with SU, Pitt and BC (plus Maryland).

    That's what I envisioned would happen many years ago: an eastern seaboard conference.

    Let ND stay indy in football and remain with the catholic schools (and likely others) in a Big East basketball onlies league.
  5. DomeStranger

    DomeStranger Starter

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    I can agree with this scenario ... I definitely think part of the ACC's motives were to c0ck block the Big 10 from the East Coast.

    However ... I believe TCU will be able to go where it pleases. They can probably get out of it's contract with the BE by arguing that this is not the conference they signed up for.

    I wouldn't even be surprised if the have a certain clause for this scenario. If there isn't then they are probably part responsible for not seeing a situation like this coming.
  6. HtownOrange

    HtownOrange All Conference

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    The Texas to the ACC rumor was "leaked" by Chip Brown and picked up by Andy Katz. CB is a UT lackey. Texas probably never had intentions of going east, west was realistic. Texas knew that the ACC would never accept Tech, like the B1G.

    I agree that Swofford may have in mind tightening the noose around ND's neck, so to speak. But I'm not sure this forces ND's hand. As long as ND has a decent conference in which to dump all sports not called football, they will. Even if Big East football is not salvaged (some conglomeration of the BE and B12 leftovers into an AQ conference), the BE basketball schools are quite a viable conference in basketball and other sports. Add a few more basketball schools and it may still be among the most powerful basketball conferences. As we speak, there are only 4 decent basketball teams in the ACC. The ACC needs to step it up in their traditional strong suit (Yes, Maryland, NCState, Wake, UVA, I'm talking to you!).

    Still. the loss of two schools which ND has wanted to associate with in all sports does limit ND's choices. Who knows, maybe Swofford gets lucky.
  7. kyleslamb

    kyleslamb Scout Team

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    Notre Dame a fish out of water in the Big Ten?

    With all due respect... Notre Dame has been involved with Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State for many years. The Big East was something of a newer thing for them. The only reason they were hitched to those schools is hoping they could preserve independence, not because of loyalty to the schools themselves.

    They've played their Big Ten rivals (UM, MSU and Purdue) over 190 times combined, with potential, natural rivalries awaiting against Ohio State, Penn State and Northwestern plus being able to participate in the newly formed Big Ten hockey conference. They've played all the Big East football teams combined less than 100 times.

    To say they're a fish out of water in the Big Ten is ridiculously inaccurate. Heck, their faculty dearly wants to join the Big Ten because of the relationship with the CIC and what it would mean to institutional research.

    The only reason they were in the Big East to begin with is simply because they needed a place to park their conference sports so they can share in the Men's Basketball Fund. The Big Ten wouldn't let them be an associate member, so they had to find someone who would.
  8. MiniCuse

    MiniCuse 2nd String

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    Either way it plays out, the ACC wins. The question is how badly does ND want to stay football independent. With their other sports home gone I think they absolutely have no choice but to consider joining a conference. The ACC is a much better fit academically and athletically for the Irish than the Big 10. I was thinking before that UCONN and Rutgers would finish the ACC expansion but now I'm not so sure. UCONN/Rutgers is strong but ND/UCONN would be a great final piece to a fantastic eastern conference.
  9. supp

    supp 2nd String

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    Ideal outcome:

    ACC:
    SU
    Pitt
    UConn
    ND

    B1G (stops at 14):
    KU
    MU

    SEC (stops at 14):
    TAMU
    WVU

    PAC16:
    TT
    UT-A
    OU
    OSU

    Nightmare scenario:

    ACC:
    SU
    Pitt
    L'ville
    KU
    MU
    USF

    B1G:
    UMd
    UVA
    ND
    RU

    SEC:
    FSU
    VT
    TAMU
    WVU

    PAC16:
    TT
    UT-A
    OU
    OSU

    More teams in the clear with the nightmare scenario but ACC is decimated and clearly the weak sister there.

    Hate to say it but ND is the linchpin here. If they come to the ACC, the conference will remain intact. No one would want to leave that lineup. Don't feel so good about it, though, if the SEC and B1G are intent on going to 16 (with or without ND). I think Swofford understands this too, and the annexation of SU and Pitt is more bait to get them to commit.
  10. OrlandoCuse

    OrlandoCuse All Conference

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    While getting ND for all sports would be a major coup for the ACC, I'm not too sure the ND alum base would be thrilled with it.

    They want to protect their annual games with USC, Michigan, Mich State and possibly Purdue. Going to the ACC kills a few of those games each year. Going to the B1G keeps those games going.

    ND is a difficult one to figure out. They clearly bring a lot of clout and lock up NYC for the ACC, but I'm not sure they are the best fit.
  11. jordoo

    jordoo Hall of Fame

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    They cannot stay independent. They have known this for a while and planned on going to the BIG10 eventually, but now with the ACC adding SU/Pitt the timetable has changed and they are now in the same boat as anyone else . . . . . better get one of those 64 seats.
  12. Jake

    Jake Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't think you understand the whole point of the superconferences. The goal is to get to four 16 team conferences and then hold a two weekend National Championship playoff system. The winner of each conference gets in. If you ain't in one of those conferences, you ain't gonna play for a National Championship. If ND is independent, no one is gonna want to play for them.
  13. Toga

    Toga Hall of Fame

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    You may be on to something here. The ND AD said the "seismic thing" last year. Well seismic is happening. Seismic may make the alumni a bit more forgiving as far as conferencing up. And as I've expressed in other posts, on a gut level the ACC seems like a better fit for ND than the gloomy Big 10.

    SU - Pitt - BC - UConn - ND is a major Northeast cockblock. All the Big 10 would have left in the market is Penn State, and that's only for football. Them adding Rutgers at that point does little for them so they look west to a Missouri and maybe a Kansas.
  14. OrangeXtreme

    OrangeXtreme Living Legend Staff Member

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    If the SEC doesn't stop at 14, wouldn't TCU be on deck for the next round? Maybe TCU and Mizzou?
  15. Cuse2010

    Cuse2010 Scout Team

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    I honestly would associate ND more with the BIG than the ACC. I always remember them playing BIG schools MI, MIState, Purdue, PSU etc. They are located in the MW, I honestly think IF they are forced to choose they would choose the BIG. Just my opinion, but than again I thought the BE was going to stick it out when Big 12 folds and add a few, get new contract to be strong. Shows what I know
  16. supp

    supp 2nd String

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    I think TCU is doomed to the BigXII/Big East leftovers conference. A small private school in TX was only a fit in the Big East. SEC will aim higher and there's nowhere for them to turn but the ACC. The big question is whether they can get their targets (VT? GT? FSU? CU?). ND in the ACC would likely ensure that the conference stays raid-free.
  17. Jake

    Jake Moderator Staff Member

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    Fish out of water may have been an exaggeration...but Swofford has definitely made the ACC a more attractive option for ND...and that was the goal and motivation of adding Pitt and Syracuse first.
  18. OrlandoCuse

    OrlandoCuse All Conference

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    I was looking at ND's schedule this year and found it rather interesting that they are playing 3 games vs ACC teams (in a row) later this year, @ Wake, vs Maryland and Boston College.

    Boston College could have some pull to bring ND to the ACC (along with Pitt and SU).

    There's just a lot of logistics that need to work out with ND. First, they will want to maintain their NBC home game contract. That means the ACC will have to give up rights to at least 4 premier games each year. Second, ND has less flexibility in their scheduling. If they have 3 or 4 open slots outside of ACC play, you know they will always use 2 to schedule USC and Michigan. Will they use the other two for Mich St or Purdue?
  19. Blaster

    Blaster 2nd String

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    I still think Uconn and Penn st are the best options
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  20. Dick_in_MI

    Dick_in_MI 2nd String

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    I don't think they'd remotely be a fish out of water. They routinely play B10 teams and their travel would be easier than in the ACC. Enrollment-wise, they're more like an ACC school but the similarity ends there. Everything else about them is oversized. They have B10-size $$$, B10 sized following, B10 sized traditions, B10 sized stadium and on and on and on. They are more like a B10 school than a number of current B10 members, to be honest.
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  21. mojaveheel

    mojaveheel Walk On

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    Jake:

    you have read Swofford's mind...

    that is exactly why these moves were made, but even if ND does not join up (no school will be admitted to the ACC for limited purposes), we will still be among the winners and we have now locked up that NE corridor and all those TV sets...

    ND and the B1G were caught napping and their public comments show it...

    there will be negative impact upon those in the BE who are ultimately left behind, and no one really wanted that, but there is no perfect answer just smart, timely moves and those that are less smart...

    Swofford got this right...
  22. kyleslamb

    kyleslamb Scout Team

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    If Notre Dame still is going to try to be an associate member, thinking it can still survive as an independent, Swofford's plan might work. But if Notre Dame is forced into a conference, it's still much more feasible for them to go to the Big Ten with their natural rivals for all sports. It's still more money and far less travel. Despite Notre Dame's attraction to the East coast (which is undoubtedly legit), they still have tried on a few occasions to become associate members of the Big Ten. Had Delany and the Big Ten presidents ever agreed to that arrangement, they'd be in the Big Ten long before now.

    I think you're overthinking Swofford's actions on this. He took Syracuse and Pitt because they were the best, most obvious candidates for ACC expansion. Swofford realistically had no other place to look except for the Big East, and Syracuse and Pittsburgh were the two no-brainers for him. He acted because he needed to kill or be killed. This didn't have anything to do with Notre Dame (though I'm sure he'll do what he can to lure them). This was all about ACC survival.
  23. OrlandoCuse

    OrlandoCuse All Conference

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    The absolute best options are Notre Dame AND Penn State to the ACC. But we all know that is a pipe dream at best.

    You push hard to get at least one, with ND being the first target. Maybe pitch them at the same time? Could be appealling to both knowing the other would come.

    Knowing you probably, at best, could only get one, you fill in the remaining slot with UConn.

    If you can't get either, you fill in the last two slots with UConn and either Rutgers or Lville or Kansas.

    Obviously the most likely scenario would be UConn and RU, but I think it will take a while for the ACC to make that move. They have to know 100% that ND and PSU are off the table before they cap out at 16 with UConn and 1 other.

    UConn and RU are going to be "gap fillers" when all is said and done. They will find a place at the table when all the chips fall, but they won't have much leverage to get the seat that they want. It might work out for them in the end, but they won't be the one's controlling their own fate.
  24. mojaveheel

    mojaveheel Walk On

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    kill or be killed was a part of this too...

    but it is for everyone, as all will jockey for position...

    ALL of the other conferences need to make the right moves going forward as mistakes will impact your bottom line...

    but Jake didn't over-analyze anything, this was calculated all the way and on more than one level...

    otherwise, throw all the East Coast BE members who play football into a cup and take out the first 4 and offer them...
  25. All4SU

    All4SU Living Legend

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    Excellent post, Jake. That all makes a lot of sense.
  26. 44USMC

    44USMC Guest

    Excellent analysis Jake. Thank you for the insight.
  27. OrangePA

    OrangePA Hall of Fame

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    I think ND goes to the Big Ten.

    For many reasons.

    It already plays a Big Ten schedule.

    It is in the midwest.

    It sees itself as a true academic institution that would benefit from the research money that the Big Ten generates.

    And, Coach K talked today about preserving the eastern time zone character of the conference.
  28. OrangePA

    OrangePA Hall of Fame

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    I agree with this - I don't think ND drove this decision at all.
  29. Chip

    Chip Hall of Fame

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    ND is in the eastern time zone half the year, if that counts for anything. Unless they changed that, I don't pay much attention to that state. But regardless I can't imagine Coach K wanting to preserve an eastern time zone would have single ounce of weight in the decision.

    I don't think the ACC move was as calculated as Jake's post re: SU, Pitt, ND. But I'm sure Swofford is awared that ND thinks highest of Pitt and SU of all of the all sports teams in the now old Big East.

    ND to the Big 10 makes the most sense. They throw in Mizzou, Kansas and one other (can't imagine they want K State or Iowa State) and they'll have a nice 16 team all sports super conference that generally sits in the same region.
  30. longtimefan

    longtimefan Starter

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    How about their blood brother connection to Navy? Or is that just another casualty in the Brave New World?
  31. longtimefan

    longtimefan Starter

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    Academically, they are quite unlike the B1G land grant behemoths. But, in this environment, that may not mean much.
  32. nralecuse

    nralecuse Walk On

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    agree with you
  33. HtownOrange

    HtownOrange All Conference

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    Actually, I understand it very well.. I also understand that the 4X16 model everyone keeps dreaming of is more dangerous than you may wish to believe. Once the non AQs outnumber the AQs, they will out-vote the AQs. Simple mathematics. Additionally, having such a slim majority is not very convincing to rogue politicians that need face time for their constituents. It is immaterial to a politician whether it goes anywhere, only that they get face time and embarrass a few people (conference commissioners).

    Further, the playoff has already been approved by the schools of the two major holdouts, the B1G and PAC 12, so conference approval was near before any alignment.

    Finally, the super-conferences may not attain 16 teams in this immediate go-round. It still likely that a 5th AQ conference, or even a 6th (they may allow a current non-AQ to step up) remains in play.

    All of that brings us to the fact that Notre Dame will have to cut ties with several of its long-standing opponents if it joins a conference. They will also have to limit their freedom to play any school they wish. Notre Dame is built on their national following and really wishes to avoid a regional conference affiliation. Regionally, no one disputes the B1G is the place for Notre Dame. Academically/institutionally, most agree that Notre Dame is a better fit for the ACC, then the B1G. Playing 8 or 9 games in conference limits their ability to maintain their national following. Personally, I think they would be OK, but I have no input in their decision. I have spoken to and read many ND fans and alumni and this is the general consensus. The above poster that stated the faculty would prefer to the B1G seems to be generally correct, too. The big donors still wish for ND independence.
  34. PeteCalvin

    PeteCalvin Hall of Fame

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    Well stated, Jake. I had the same thoughts regarding ND. I just don't see them sitting well in the Big 10+. I figured that the ACC was a better match for them, regardless of the distance. The ACC has a high population of strong academic private schools. Plus, they have a perfect landing zone for their up and coming lacrosse program (although I'm sure that Lax has very little to do with any of this...but I'm sure it's a consideration). I thought the ND AD's comments were more of a smoke screen. I think they know more than they a letting on. Personally, I don't think ND wants to get played by the Big 10+. They want to go somewhere where it appears like THEY are making the call. If they go to the Big 10+, there will always be rumblings that they were manipulated or had to kneel before the Big 10+ brass. No, I think ND is going to throw a curve ball here and stick it to the Big 10. They will hold out to the end and join the ACC with all the pomp and circumstance they want. The Big Whatever will end up with Missouri and Kansas, which make better sense there than anyplace else. It'll be ND's proverbial knife to the heart of the conference that has always wanted them.
  35. Dick_in_MI

    Dick_in_MI 2nd String

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    Not sure exactly what you mean. There are several B10 schools that are among the finest academic institutions in the country.

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