Louisville opens -12 over Cuse...

[Townie72]

This is very simplistic thinking. What if SU won at USF? How much does Vegas win in that scenario.

Actually its very complex thinking. It's much more difficult to divine the thinking of thousands of people with varying degrees of expertise versus projecting an outcome of a game based on statistical projections of previous performances.

How much Vegas wins depends on the profile of the betting pool. Vegas isn't trying to pick a winner. They are trying to balance the money between the two teams.

 

[Townie72]

Thanks for the lesson, but Vegas does not pull the opening line out of thin air. It IS based on complex data analytics and logarithms to project what the expected point total will be for each team involved in a game. From that number, they adjust the line up or down based on various factors with the goal of "balancing the books." This number is the opening line. Vegas is in fact betting on getting equal money bet on both sides.

The opening line can also be adjusted up or down as money flows in, again with the goal of balancing the books. They make 10% off of the losing bets (vig), but they absolutely have "downside" on any given game. The risk comes from having unbalanced betting in one direction and that side pays out so the vig will not cover the difference.

Much more often than not, Vegas is right on with the opening line and then makes billions off the betting public who think they know better. This includes the people who think that hard data analysis is not involved.

You are trying to have it both ways.

If they had this sophisticated level of knowledge, they'd be betting. They are not. They are just the bookie trying to balance the action on both sides of the bet.

 

[Willy75]

This is very simplistic thinking. What if SU won at USF? How much does Vegas win in that scenario.

See Townie's comments above. I was wrong on the push part.

 

[690West]

Line is up to -14 at many books. Moneyline is at +450 indicating an 18% chance of Cuse winning outright. Man that +450 looks enticing to this homer. I smell VALUE!!

 

[rrlbees]

Line is up to -14 at many books. Moneyline is at +450 indicating an 18% chance of Cuse winning outright. Man that +450 looks enticing to this homer. I smell VALUE!!

So if I put down $100,000 on SU and they win, I get $450,000?

 

[690West]

So if I put down $100,000 on SU and they win, I get $450,000?

Yes sir!

 

[jekelish]

Wait a second - we have a game this week?

I was assured the season is, in fact, over. Excuse me, I need to go complain to someone about this.

 

[Janner]

Lines up to 17 right now??? Not a good sign, Something's going on here, any thoughts??

 

[cuseguy]

Lines up to 17 right now??? Not a good sign, Something's going on here, any thoughts??

Might change with Ville QB situation.

 

[Chris02M]

reverse of last week