September
Friday, September 2, 7PM in the Dome vs. COLGATE TV: ESPN 3
61-7, 34-6, 47-0, 71-0, 46-6, 51-8, 47-24, 49-15, 42-7. Those have been the Syracuse –Colgate scores since Jim Brown’s senior year. We’ve beaten the Red Raiders a total of 14 times in a row, a longer streak than the famous “Hoodoo” from 1925-37 when they never lost to us. They still hold a 31-30-5 lead over SU in the All-time series. They won the first game in 1891, 16-22 and went on to win two more to give them a lead they have never surrendered. We can finally catch up this year! Actually, I think we should open every season in the Dome against Colgate, then play a home –and-home with Army, then play a MAC or C-USA team, then a power 5 team, (or Notre Dame if it’s our turn), then the conference schedule. That would be a nicely balanced schedule for SU and the AD would have to wheel and deal for only 1-2 opponents a year. . Are listening, Mr. Wildhack?
This one might not be the walk-over Colgate games since Jimmy Brown scored those 6TDs have traditionally been. Syracuse is coming off consecutive 3-9 and 4-8 seasons and has a new coaching staff that is trying to install new schemes on both sides of the ball using the old players. We’ve had trouble with FCS teams before. We should have lost to Villanova two years ago and were behind at halftime to Stony Brook two years before that. If you keep the underdog in the game, anything can happen.
And Colgate can make things happen. They lost their first three games a year ago, then won 9 of 11, winning the Patriot League title and then going to the FCS “Elite 8”, beating New Hampshire 27-20 and James Madison 44-38 before falling to Sam Houston State 21-48, all on the road. Are we as good as Sam Houston State? Maybe- looking at the highlights and the stats, I think they run something similar to what Dino Babers wants to do here:
Colgate vs Sam Houston St. - FCS Football
If we do it well, we might get similar results. That could be a big if.
Colgate has some gaudy stats of their own. Quarterback Jake Melville ran for 1,073 yards and passed for 2,552 more, producing 11 touchdowns each way. James Holland was their second leading rusher with 749 yards but scored 16TDs. Wide-out John Maddaluna caught passes for 910 yards. But keep in mind they played 14 games, (all of which counted in the stats: there are no “regular season” stats any more- it’s just like basketball). Their true production is seen in the per-game numbers below and the rankings are in the FCS, not the FBS, (there are 123 teams in FCS, 127 in FBS). The fact that Melville rushed for 1,000 yards stamps hi for us – or anyone- to contain but they will be especially hard for a team with a weakness at defensive end.
The Red Raiders were actually more known for their defense, led by linebacker Kyle Diener and defensive linemen Pat Afriyie. They were a very aggressive unit with 36 sacks and 76 tackles for a loss. Maybe we can take advantage of that. The Red Raiders gave up a lot of yards through the air last year.
This is a game with more intrigue than we want it to have. Colgate gets almost all their top players back on both sides of the ball. They may not be Division 1A athletes but they will have more experience than a lot of their SU counterparts. Really, the divisions overlap. The top FCS teams would make decent FBS teams and the worst FBS teams would not be among the top FCS teams. This game could be a blow-out like the ones above but it might not be. And if things go very wrong, it could be a hugely disappointing opener for SU. Dino Babers opening game at Eastern Illinois was a 49-28 win over Southern Illinois, a team they’d lost to 28-45 the year before. His opening game at Bowling Green was a 31-59 loss to Western Kentucky, whom they had not played the year before. His opener to his second season at BG was almost the same score: 30-59 at Tennessee.
Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive:
Rushing yards per game: 206(23rd) vs. 150 (44th)
Passing yards per game: 182 (82nd) vs. 248 (107th)
Total Yards per game: 389 (54th) vs. 398 (72nd)
Scoring per game: 25 (67th) vs. 29 (76th)
Turnover Margin: +10 (15th)
Total Sacks: 36 (26th) vs. 13 (10th)
Friday, September 9, 8PM in the Dome vs. LOUISVILLE TV: ESPN2
Bug meet windshield: our 17-41 loss to the Cardinals last year put the final nail in the coffin of the Shafer era. Louisville hadn’t been playing well, (four losses in their first 6 games then wins over dreadful Boston College and Wake Forest teams by a total of 4 points), but then a lot of teams have “gotten well” against Syracuse lately. They went on to finish 8-5 with a bowl win over Texas A&M. I think they are the third best program in our division of the ACC and probably the third best in the entire conference. They’ve done a lot winning since the turn of the century, are in SEC country, (but better than the other Power Five program in the state, Kentucky), and have a coach in Bobby Petrino who isn’t going to win any “Man of the Year” contests but could certainly win Coach of the Year, (not unlike their basketball coach). They probably have the best all-around athletic program in the conference and usually generate the most money.
They return 17 starters from last year- tied for most in the conference. Do they have a dynamic, multi-threat quarterback? Of course they do: Lamar Jackson who ran for 960 yards and 11TDs and passed for 1840 and 12 TDs, (but only completed 54.7%, not a good number in a modern passing attack, where short throws set up the long ones). You could ask Texas A&M about Lamar: he ran for 226 yards and threw for 227 against them and accounted for all four touchdowns in an 27-21 win. Jamari Staples missed four games but still led the team with 635 yards on 37 catches and 3 scores and the well-named James Quick led in TD catches with 5 on 37 catches for 624 yards. Jackson is 6-3, Staples 6-4 and Quick 6-1 so these guys can play catch with each other over smaller defenders. They are scrambling a bit at running back, where Brandon Ratcliff led with 689 yards and 7 scores. They have a veteran line in front of these guys, although they did have problems protecting the quarterback last year.
An opposing coach told SI: “Bobby Petrino’s a great offensive coach and, while you may think he’s going to throw it all over the place, he’s got a very physical team, one that’s going to run the ball first….They’ve got tons of athletes defensively. Their team speed is tremendous and they’re very physical up front. Their secondary does a really good job in coverage and in talking away the easy-access throws.” Including bubble-screens?
Petrino inherited a lot of defensive talent from Charley Strong. DC Todd Grantham is “an aggressive guy who likes to blitz. But it’s imperative that you don’t let his high-pressure tactics make you one-dimensional offensively. That’s what he wants.” (SI) They use a three man front and lost DE Sheldon Rankins to the NFL but DeVonte Fields had 11 sacks and 22 ½ tackles for a loss. Fields is a 6-4 242 pound linebacker who runs a 4.62 forty. SI calls him a “freak”. Another freak is 6-5 safety Josh Jarvey Clemsons who “looks like he should be lining up at end.” He had 89 tackles and 3 interceptions. 6-1 308 DeAngelo Brown “returns as a rock in the middle of the line. He is a disruptive bull of a tackle”. (Lindy’s) Remember Nick Fairly in the middle of the Quack Attack in the 2010 championship game? It takes just one bull to wreck the China shop.
They lost both their place kicker and punter, which could be a problem in a close game on the road. If we can keep Jackson in the pocket and run our offense the way Babers wants it run, we have a shot but there’s be no “running start” to this season, the way there was last year. We go right from Colgate to the deep end of the pool.
Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive:
Rushing yards per game: 171 (64th) vs. 120 (14th)
Passing yards per game: 245 (46th) vs. 212.5 (51st)
Total Yards per game: 416 (54th) vs. 333 (18th)
Scoring per game: 29 (65th) vs. 24 (39th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (75th)
Total Sacks: 38 (13th) vs. 44 (124th)
Saturday, September 17, 3PM in the Dome vs. SOUTH FLORIDA TV: ESPN 3
South Florida sure got well against Syracuse last year. They were coming off four straight losing seasons, the last under Coach Willie Taggart, who was 7-21 after they started 1-3. Syracuse was 3-1 with the only loss a competitive effort vs. mighty LSU. SU fans expected a blow-out and we got one. After a frustrating first half which saw the Bills take a 3-10 lead, SU gave up two TDs in the first five minutes of three second half to fall behind 3-24, rallied to make it 17-24 and began trading scores until two SU turnovers left the final at 24-45. We were out-gained 305-540. The Bulls won seven of their last eight before losing a bowl game to Western Kentucky and finishing 8-5 while we went 4-8.
It was particularly bitter to SU fans who remember the decline of the previous decade. There were three opponents that symbolized that decline. One was Rutgers, the former doormat of the Big East, a team we once beat 50-3 and 70-14 in consecutive years, who became a contender and a bowl team while we became the conference’s new doormat. Another was Connecticut, who had been a small college team we would have never deigned to play who rose to major college status and began beating us. The third was South Florida, who didn’t even have a team until 1997 but slapped us around 0-27, 10-27, 10-41, 13-45 and 20-34 the first five times we played them. Beyond that, the Bulls, like the Scarlet Knights and Huskies, were important and mostly new recruiting rivals whose success seemed to be draining the lifeblood from our program. Doug Marrone then got a couple of wins against them and they seemed to have fallen on hard times so a “just like the old days” loss to them was both unexpected and very painful. The fact that our hopes had been soaring after the LSU made it even more difficult to accept.
South Florida has always been a sleeping giant. Both they and Central Florida are large state schools, (36 and 54 thousand undergraduates, respectively) in great recruiting areas, (Tampa and Orlando), and they are both trying to do what Florida State, a girls’ school until 1947 with ‘only’ 32,000 undergrads in a much smaller city in a more remote location, (Tallahassee), did in the 60’s and 70’s- rise from obscurity to a football powerhouse. They may be getting back on schedule.
Guess what- they have a dual threat quarterback! Quinton Flowers rushed for 991 yards and 12TDs and passed for 2296 and 22 touchdowns. They also have 6-0 205 Marlon Mack who ran through us like a Mack truck and wound up the season with 1,381 rushing yards and 8 TDs. And they have a top receiver in Rodney Adams who had 45 catches for 822 yards and 9 scores. His former high school teammate, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, transferred in from NC State after catching 44 for them two years ago. He’s “6-3 210 and can overpower and out-jump defenders.” (Lindys) They are missing three starters from their line.
Defensively 5 of their top 6 tacklers are back. And they were +10 in turnovers, having forced 25 of them. They run a 4-2-5 scheme and the “2” are both excellent: Augie Sanchez and Nigel Harris. They have only one returning lineman, but he’s a big one: 6-1 305 Deadrain Senat. (Deadrin?) Four of the five D-backs return, with cornerback Deatrick Nichols being the best. (Deatrick?) ESPN interviewed an opposing coach who said “They attack the football and play with a lot of speed, effort and aggression.”
Emilio Nadelman missed 8 field goals last year and they are looking for a new punter. They have good kick returners, although they didn’t score last year.
A repeat of last year’s results against Louisville or South Florida would not be surprising. If Dino Babers can reverse either result, that will be a very good sign.
Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive:
Rushing yards per game: 246.5 (10th) vs. 141 (31st)
Passing yards per game: 195 (95th) vs. 239 (84th)
Total Yards per game: 442 (35th) vs.381 (52nd)
Scoring per game: 34 (41st) vs. 23 (35th)
Turnover Margin: +10 (13th)
Total Sacks: 34 (26th) vs. 21 (13th)
Saturday, September 24, TBA at CONNECTICUT TV: TBA
Like South Florida, Connecticut is one of those schools whose rise corresponded to SU’s decline and thus our losses to them symbolized that decline- and accelerated it because they became important recruiting rivals. G-Rob lost to them 7-26, beat them 20-14 but then lost 7-30 and 14-39, then Doug Marrone lost to them 31-56, 6-23 and 21-28 before finally righting the ship with a 40-10 win in the Dome, (using a high-powered passing attack). Like South Florida, they hit a down period as they stagnated under Randy Edsall and declined under Coach P. Like South Florida, they are coming back under a new coach, Bob Diaco, who had a rough (2-10) start but rallied to 6-7 last year, including a bowl game. And they will be Dino Baber’s first road opponent as Syracuse coach, just as South Florida was our first road opponent last year.
Connecticut’s problem last year was scoring: they were 121st in the country and scored only 17 points per game, including four games where they didn’t get past 10 points. Yes, they have a dual threat quarterback, although he’s not quite as productive as the ones we will have seen by now. Bryant Shirretts passed for 2,078 yards and 9TDs while running for 503 yards and 3 scores. Their best offensive player is 5-7 180 Arkeel Newsome, the kind of back who can hide behind lineman and pick his opening to suddenly accelerate, which he did for 792 yards, (4.3 average), and 6 scores. He also has good hands bad caught 45 passes for 465 yards and 2 scores. Their leading receiver was Noel Thomas who had 54 catches for 719 yards and 3 scores. He was held without a catch in the 12/16/15 St. Petersburg Bowl loss to Marshall. Was it a hangover from Christmas? Their real problem last year was the offensive line which “has to sort itself out and work in unison”. (Lindy’s) If we get our offense in gear, the Huskies may be hard-pressed to keep up.
This team was all about defense a year ago, ranking 15th in the country in scoring defense and 20th in pass defense. One coach said “They are assignment-sound and often drop all four of their linebackers into coverage. It’s very hard to find windows to throw into when eight guys drop.” (ESPN)
This will be quite a challenge for our new offensive scheme. They use a 3-4 scheme and have 3 of the four linebackers back and the fourth spot will probably be taken from a Florida State transfer, E.J. Levenberry. But their best defender is likely cornerback Jamar Summers who had 8 interceptions last year, second in the country. “Safety Obi Melifonwu was third on the team with 88 tackles, bringing an ability to impact the running game.” (Lindy’s)
Kicker Bobby Puyol was 16 of 18 last year. They are looking for a new punter . They didn’t score on a kick return last year and gained a net of 2 yards all season returning punts. It’s not exactly a dynamic team. But, per Lindys “The Huskies are taking on the personality of their head coach: rugged and tough” They don’t turn the ball over and force you to do so, (+9). They were the only team to beat Houston Last year, 20-17. And Houston already was the sort of high-powered offensive team we aspire to be. SI: “UCONN dealt Houston it’s only loss last year by playing smashmouth football. That’s the game plan to beat the Cougars. They didn’t have quarterback Greg Ward Jr. for most of the game, which didn’t help, but UCONN still limited their possessions and pushed them around.” If they could do that to Houston, they could do it to SU.
If we are coming into this game 1-2, SU’s confidence level may not be high and Connecticut could prove to be a formidable opponent. A loss here would not only bring back bad memories but put us in quite a hole to start the season and the Babers era.
Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive:
Rushing yards per game: 124 (114th) vs. 166 (60th)
Passing yards per game: 166 (103rd) vs. 189 (20th)
Total Yards per game: 310 (123rd) vs. 355 (33rd)
Scoring per game: 17 (121st) vs. 19.5 (15th)
Turnover Margin: +9 (15th)
Total Sacks: 21 (97th) vs. 37 (107th)