NBA Scout: "I'm hearing Malachi will be a top 10 pick."

[OttoinGrotto]

Anyway, I think the general consternation with this stuff is that when guys used to leave early, they were lock stock and barrel ready and awesome where college would seem silly to stay.

And yet, guys have always washed out of the NBA.

 

[br801]

That's what a bust is, esp when Steph Curry goes after.

Anyway, I think the general consternation with this stuff is that when guys used to leave early, they were lock stock and barrel ready and awesome where college would seem silly to stay.

This case seems like a big wildcard, therefore...

As a fan, I just can't bring myself to label someone a bust if his career is ended by injury. Is that pick a bust in the eyes of the team selecting the player? Sure, but that's something else entirely.

 

[OttoMets]

As a fan, I just can't bring myself to label someone a bust if his career is ended by injury. Is that pick a bust in the eyes of the team selecting the player? Sure, but that's something else entirely.

His tenure in Minnesota ended because of injury. His NBA career ended because no one from that organization had positive things to say about him. 'Insubordinate' and 'uncoachable' were the terms quoted by the press. And that didn't surprise anyone at SU.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Past 10 drafts, half the #1 picks were All Stars, only a couple of #2 picks, but there is a pretty solid amount of All Stars after the top two picks. I was actually shocked when I made the list of the amount of guys after the 15th pick that ended up making an All Star team.

Yeah, I looked at this a month or so ago ... maybe I had different numbers:

I'd imagine it is very similar to the NBA. Here's my hypothesis that I'll test: The number of all star games played by the top -5 outweigh the rest of the draft combined. Data collected from here. Let's limit it to the 1989 and after since that's when the drafted was limited to two rounds. It could additionally be limited when they removed high school players from the draft, but we'll stick with 1989.

Results. Since 1989, 1,620 players have been drafted. Just 138 players have been drafted and were selected to at least one all star game (8.5%), 47 were selected outside of the lottery picks (34.5%). There have been 471 total all-stars selections. 26 Top 2 draft picks (54 picks total) have played in a combined 130 of those 471 all-star games (27%). Of the 3, 4, and 5 picks, 40 have played in a combined 141 games (30%). 300 Players have been drafted in the top five and 66 have played an AS game (22%). In total 66 players drafted in the top-5 have played 57% of the all-star games. The remainder of the draft is 3,300 players and just 81 made an all-star game (2.5%). Where they played in the remaining 46% of games. Outside of the top-5, just six players really stand out and, by themselves, have played in more than half of those all-star games: Kobe (HS), Garnett (HS), Dirk (foreign), Dwayne Wade, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce.

 

[Bayside44]

And yet, guys have always washed out of the NBA.

That's not the point. There are enough people here old enough to remember that you better be a stone cold lock to be an early pick to leave early. Now it's a crapshoot for a lot of kids and a lot of kids who did it made a massive mistake. No more or less.

 

[Bayside44]

As a fan, I just can't bring myself to label someone a bust if his career is ended by injury. Is that pick a bust in the eyes of the team selecting the player? Sure, but that's something else entirely.

The waste of a pick is the bust.

 

[Fly Rodder]

That's not the point. There are enough people here old enough to remember that you better be a stone cold lock to be an early pick to leave early. Now it's a crapshoot for a lot of kids and a lot of kids who did it made a massive mistake. No more or less.

Based on what exactly? There is zero evidence that staying in college improves draft position or NBA success (as defined by something). The only thing is not getting a degree, but A) some folks are just not cut out for college and B) there may quite a few that have gone back and finished degrees after playing basketball for pay for a few years.

 

[Bayside44]

Based on what exactly? There is zero evidence that staying in college improves draft position or NBA success (as defined by something). The only thing is not getting a degree, but A) some folks are just not cut out for college and B) there may quite a few that have gone back and finished degrees after playing basketball for pay for a few years.

It improves life success. Guys Korleone Young don't even make it to college and it's over. Guys get untethered, no degree, no sports structure, not mature enough for life etc.

Now if you're saying there's zero evidence that finishing college is a waste of time...

 

[djcon57]

It improves life success. Guys Korleone Young don't even make it to college and it's over. Guys get untethered, no degree, no sports structure, not mature enough for life etc.

You are ignoring that if you stay 4 years, it hurts your status in the NBA.

We can count on like 1 hand the number of 4 year superstars.

 

[Bayside44]

You are ignoring that if you stay 4 years, it hurts your status in the NBA.

We can count on like 1 hand the number of 4 year superstars.

The first part of what I said dates myself and a lot of others here - we remember when people only left (minus an exception here or there) when they were a stone cold lock for a high pick and it was pretty much in stone.

Now guys leave to be second round picks and undrafted. Of course a lot of studs leave early but plenty leave that aren't.

 

[djcon57]

The first part of what I said dates myself and a lot of others here - we remember when people only left (minus an exception here or there) when they were a stone cold lock for a high pick and it was pretty much in stone.

Now guys leave to be second round picks and undrafted. Of course a lot of studs leave early but plenty leave that aren't.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying the situation is what it is. The longer they stay, the more they are picked apart.

I watch Ennis a good 10 times in the NBA and I'm still convinced if he stays 1-2 more years, NO WAY is he a 1st rounder.

 

[Bayside44]

Oh, I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying the situation is what it is. The longer they stay, the more they are picked apart.

I watch Ennis a good 10 times in the NBA and I'm still convinced if he stays 1-2 more years, NO WAY is he a 1st rounder.

Agree on Ennis. Which is nutty, he would likely just get stronger and smarter the longer he stayed.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

The first part of what I said dates myself and a lot of others here - we remember when people only left (minus an exception here or there) when they were a stone cold lock for a high pick and it was pretty much in stone.

Now guys leave to be second round picks and undrafted. Of course a lot of studs leave early but plenty leave that aren't.

The NBA salary cap keeps going higher and higher. Everyone wants a piece of the gold ring.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Agree on Ennis. Which is nutty, he would likely just get stronger and smarter the longer he stayed.

He would not have gotten better.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

It improves life success. Guys Korleone Young don't even make it to college and it's over. Guys get untethered, no degree, no sports structure, not mature enough for life etc.

Now if you're saying there's zero evidence that finishing college is a waste of time...

Those guys at Stanford and Vanderbilt would not agree that attending college improves success.

 

[Bayside44]

He would not have gotten better.

No one gets better at stuff from ages 18-22.

 

[Whitey23]

 

[Whitey23]

 

[NineOneSeven]

Would make a ton of sense. Solid wing to compliment aging Korver and Bazemore.

 

[Whitey23]

 

[CusefanATL]

You are ignoring that if you stay 4 years, it hurts your status in the NBA.

We can count on like 1 hand the number of 4 year superstars.

Kind of... kind of not.

If Lebron stayed all 4 years, he would have been the #1 pick.

The part you aren't taking into consideration is that players are 99% leaving the second they are close to lottery pick.

Very few payers come out of nowhere their junior year like Buddy Heild did.

 

[djcon57]

If Lebron stayed all 4 years, he would have been the #1 pick.

The part you aren't taking into consideration is that players are 99% leaving the second they are close to lottery pick.

Actually it's the only part I'm taking into consideration.

If you are ready to go, you leave. If you don't leave, you aren't good enough (again, based on the percentages, yes, there's players like G that prove the opposite)

 

[Toga]

Nice to see positive comment prior to the draft.

 

[djcon57]

Some more age based facts to chew on:

DraftExpress: The Anatomy of a Successful Second Round Pick

While most 2nd round picks that find success in the NBA were seniors, four years of collegiate experience may be overvalued. Seniors account for nearly 50% of the players drafted in the 2nd round but make up less than 40% of successful players. This suggests that teams may favor prospects with four years of collegiate experience when drafting in the 2nd round, in lieu of a player with less collegiate experience.

 

[RF2044]

Looks like the scout heard wrong.