SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Chris McCullough.. 23NP in 39 minutes season: 70NP in 133 minutes per 40: 20.0
Michael Gbinije….. 3NP in 31 minutes season: 19NP in 84 minutes per 40: 12.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 4NP in 37 minutes season: 23NP in 125 minutes per 40: 8.6
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 33 minutes season: 60NP in 113 minutes per 40: 22.5
Tyler Roberson……. 6NP in 17 minutes season: 26NP in 83 minutes per 40: 12.1
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 40 minutes season: 36NP in 141 minutes per 40: 10.3
Ron Patterson…….. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 3NP in 40 minutes per 40: 4.3
DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 12 minutes per 40: 6.7
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 33NP in 65 minutes per 40: 20.3
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I had wondered if Chris McCullough would be an immediate star, as some had projected. Maybe “star” exaggerates it a bit but the word may underestimate his importance to the team. He and Christmas have become its twin pillars. BJ Johnson’s big numbers are the residue of his game vs. Kenesaw State when he had 19 points and 8 rebounds. His net point average will remain sky high until he gets more playing time, as he likely will in the next couple of games. But after that he could be the classic reserve with a high average who remains there because he isn’t playing much, (as such he might be up for the Eric Williams award if there was one). Johnson, Christmas and McCullough have all led the team in net points once each. Trevor Cooney had a pretty good game against Iowa. Keep in mind that when he’s not in there that guy who is always chasing him around is available to defend other players or areas. Observers also saw that he was trying to exert more aggressive leadership on the court.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 13 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 39 times, (35.9%). When they missed, they got the ball 13 of 36 times (36.1%). We’ve averaged getting 39.1% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 25.4% of theirs.
Of our 14 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. We are averaging 11.5 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 17.5/8.
If you add our 37 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 38 + 14= 52, so we were +3We haven’t lost that battle this season. For the season we’ve averaged 60 to 45 (+15).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 22 for 45, (.489) inside the arc, 3 for 15, (.200) outside it and 9 for 16 (.684) from the line. They were 16 for 34 (.471), 6/21 (.286) and 13/20 (.650). For the season we are .481/.246/.654. Our opposition is .456/.288/.627..
We had 38 points in the paint, 20 off turnovers, 13 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 2 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 14 off turnovers, 15 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 8 from the bench. For the season we are averaging 33.5-23.5 points in the paint, 19.5-9 off turnovers, 15-7.5 “second chance” points, 9-7.5 fast break points and 14.5-11 from the bench. It’s interesting that we had 13 bench points against California and lost and then had 2 bench points against Iowa and won.
We had 66 points, 38 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 13 from the line so we had 15”POP”, (points outside the paint: 66-38-13) and scored 6 points, (15 POP- 9 from treys), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 63/28/18/13= 22 POP and 4 points in the Twilight Zone. For the year we are averaging 23.5 POP and 11.5TZ, our opposition 25/7.5. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
17 of our 25 baskets were assisted (.680) and 16 of their 22 (.727). For the year we are assisting on 58.1% of our baskets to 67.1% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in all 4 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 13 OREBs + 14 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 70.0 possessions. They were 55 -13+ 18+ (.475 x 20) = 69.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 70 possessions in which we scored 66 points, (0.943) and 70 possessions in which they scored 63 points, (0.913). We had 140 combined possession in this game. We’ve averaged 137.5 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last eyar. We’ll see if that holds up as the season goes along and the opposition gets tougher. .
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Chris McCullough scored 20 points and had 2 assists for 22 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game Rakeem Christmas, BJ Johnson and Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough each have been the O-Dog once. Four guys in four games is portably a good sign.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 16-15, 18-14, 20-13, 12-21. The average for the season is: 15-12.5, 17-11, 16-14, 20.5-15.5. We’ve won 12 of 16 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 11 quarters and held the opposition under that 10 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas got us started with a dunk at 19:33 of the first half and Chris McCullough opened the second half with a lay-up at 19:22. Rakeem Christmas has sat us 4 times, Chris McCullough 3 times, and Kaleb Joseph once. The longest period we have waited is 17:54 of the second half vs. Hampton.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 45 two point shots to 34, scored 38 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 16 times to 16, attempting 19 foul shots to 20. Fairly even, even if we had more two point attempts and points in the paint. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 187 two point shots and scored 134 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 72 times and taken 78 free throws. Our opposition has taken 138 two point shots and scored 94 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 59 times and taken only 51 free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter idd look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, it was, Trevor Cooney with 40 minutes. Chris McCullough and Trevor Cooney have been the “Man” twice each. Cooney had played the most minutes (141) for the season.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Chris McCullough.. 23NP in 39 minutes season: 70NP in 133 minutes per 40: 20.0
Michael Gbinije….. 3NP in 31 minutes season: 19NP in 84 minutes per 40: 12.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 4NP in 37 minutes season: 23NP in 125 minutes per 40: 8.6
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 33 minutes season: 60NP in 113 minutes per 40: 22.5
Tyler Roberson……. 6NP in 17 minutes season: 26NP in 83 minutes per 40: 12.1
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 40 minutes season: 36NP in 141 minutes per 40: 10.3
Ron Patterson…….. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 3NP in 40 minutes per 40: 4.3
DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 12 minutes per 40: 6.7
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 33NP in 65 minutes per 40: 20.3
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I had wondered if Chris McCullough would be an immediate star, as some had projected. Maybe “star” exaggerates it a bit but the word may underestimate his importance to the team. He and Christmas have become its twin pillars. BJ Johnson’s big numbers are the residue of his game vs. Kenesaw State when he had 19 points and 8 rebounds. His net point average will remain sky high until he gets more playing time, as he likely will in the next couple of games. But after that he could be the classic reserve with a high average who remains there because he isn’t playing much, (as such he might be up for the Eric Williams award if there was one). Johnson, Christmas and McCullough have all led the team in net points once each. Trevor Cooney had a pretty good game against Iowa. Keep in mind that when he’s not in there that guy who is always chasing him around is available to defend other players or areas. Observers also saw that he was trying to exert more aggressive leadership on the court.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 13 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 39 times, (35.9%). When they missed, they got the ball 13 of 36 times (36.1%). We’ve averaged getting 39.1% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 25.4% of theirs.
Of our 14 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. We are averaging 11.5 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 17.5/8.
If you add our 37 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 38 + 14= 52, so we were +3We haven’t lost that battle this season. For the season we’ve averaged 60 to 45 (+15).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 22 for 45, (.489) inside the arc, 3 for 15, (.200) outside it and 9 for 16 (.684) from the line. They were 16 for 34 (.471), 6/21 (.286) and 13/20 (.650). For the season we are .481/.246/.654. Our opposition is .456/.288/.627..
We had 38 points in the paint, 20 off turnovers, 13 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 2 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 14 off turnovers, 15 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 8 from the bench. For the season we are averaging 33.5-23.5 points in the paint, 19.5-9 off turnovers, 15-7.5 “second chance” points, 9-7.5 fast break points and 14.5-11 from the bench. It’s interesting that we had 13 bench points against California and lost and then had 2 bench points against Iowa and won.
We had 66 points, 38 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 13 from the line so we had 15”POP”, (points outside the paint: 66-38-13) and scored 6 points, (15 POP- 9 from treys), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 63/28/18/13= 22 POP and 4 points in the Twilight Zone. For the year we are averaging 23.5 POP and 11.5TZ, our opposition 25/7.5. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
17 of our 25 baskets were assisted (.680) and 16 of their 22 (.727). For the year we are assisting on 58.1% of our baskets to 67.1% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in all 4 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 13 OREBs + 14 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 70.0 possessions. They were 55 -13+ 18+ (.475 x 20) = 69.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 70 possessions in which we scored 66 points, (0.943) and 70 possessions in which they scored 63 points, (0.913). We had 140 combined possession in this game. We’ve averaged 137.5 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last eyar. We’ll see if that holds up as the season goes along and the opposition gets tougher. .
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Chris McCullough scored 20 points and had 2 assists for 22 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game Rakeem Christmas, BJ Johnson and Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough each have been the O-Dog once. Four guys in four games is portably a good sign.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 16-15, 18-14, 20-13, 12-21. The average for the season is: 15-12.5, 17-11, 16-14, 20.5-15.5. We’ve won 12 of 16 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 11 quarters and held the opposition under that 10 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas got us started with a dunk at 19:33 of the first half and Chris McCullough opened the second half with a lay-up at 19:22. Rakeem Christmas has sat us 4 times, Chris McCullough 3 times, and Kaleb Joseph once. The longest period we have waited is 17:54 of the second half vs. Hampton.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 45 two point shots to 34, scored 38 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 16 times to 16, attempting 19 foul shots to 20. Fairly even, even if we had more two point attempts and points in the paint. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 187 two point shots and scored 134 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 72 times and taken 78 free throws. Our opposition has taken 138 two point shots and scored 94 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 59 times and taken only 51 free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter idd look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, it was, Trevor Cooney with 40 minutes. Chris McCullough and Trevor Cooney have been the “Man” twice each. Cooney had played the most minutes (141) for the season.
