odds of three passing performances this bad 3 games in a row: 1 in 8,000

Discussion in 'Syracuse Football Board' started by Millhouse, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    If you randomly picked three team QB ratings from last year, you would have a 1 in 8,000 chance of getting all three having a QB rating less than 70

    69.56 is the high water mark for SU the last three games.

    Last year, only 5% of offenses were that bad in a game.

    5%^3 = .0125%

    1/.0125% = 8,000.

    PS if you just look at hunt who had a 76.51 rating, the odds of three games that bad in a row are 1 in 2,865. Allen's second half really made an unlikely situation even more unlikely.
  2. SUFan44

    SUFan44 Starter

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    Allen is the better QB, supposedly?
  3. northacuse

    northacuse Starter

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    This is looking as complicated as SU's playbook. Can you dumb it down for us dummies?;)
  4. rrlbees

    rrlbees Administrator Staff Member

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    Yes he is.


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  5. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    QB ratings vs BCS teams
    Allen: 88
    Hunt: 54

    This is like choosing between constipation and diarrhea and a QB rating is really a passing game rating (WRs have a lot to do with it) but it's interesting

    Even though Hunt is completely incompetent as a passer and Allen is just merely terrible, are we still better off with Hunt running? 88 isn't going to win you anything.

    How does it get to this point? What were they doing in practice the last few years? Did they even try to develop anyone but Nassib?
  6. SUFan44

    SUFan44 Starter

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    Never going to agree with you - and I don't think many here will either.

    QB is much more than throwing a nice ball.
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  7. SUFan44

    SUFan44 Starter

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    In the NFL, you have QBs for 9-10 years. You don't need to develop more than one.

    It's quite clear Marrone took that approach the last four years. And it's rearing its ugly head now.
  8. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    agree but that doesn't mean hunt is good at any of those things. he's a decent runner. but i don't know if it would be worth his passing numbers even if he ran like randall cunningham
  9. SUFan44

    SUFan44 Starter

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    Not saying Hunt is good at all. They're both bad.

    'bees is adamant about Allen's being the choice to start because he's the better QB - which I whole-heartedly disagree with.

    With this team, Hunt is the better option IMO than Allen due to his legs and the lack of WR acumen. Not saying he's a good option at all. But he's the better option.
  10. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    i think raking is the better option
    [​IMG]
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  11. OttoinGrotto

    OttoinGrotto Living Legend

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    Go's going to jump all over me for this, but it seemed really, really weird to me way back in the Paulus days how Marrone always talked about Nassib in terms of how he wasn't ready, didn't have the whole playbook down, etc. Strange because I thought, ok, so if Paulus goes down, then what? We're just screwed because Nassib isn't ready? How is the backup QB not ready? Especially since even back then it was pretty well discussed that Nassib was a pretty smart guy.

    Then Marrone says at one point we're not really sure how good Hunt is, because he's running the scout team.

    Then end of last season all of a sudden word is Loeb is really good and had been challenging Nassib. Seemed to come out of nowhere.

    Anyway, I don't know.
  12. storange

    storange Starter

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    Not sure I agree, Allen couldn't drive us to a score with G Tech in soft coverage mode in second half and then late in the game against Techs seconds. Not defending Hunt just saying Allen is certainly no better.
  13. IthacaBarrel

    IthacaBarrel Shaky Potatoes

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    Like Millhouse said, it's like choosing between constipation or diaharea or a kick in the face or the nuts. They are both terrible. One can run OK, one can pass two steps below average and one cant pass. It's really not good either way. It's GROB bad for sure.
  14. rosconey

    rosconey All Conference

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    a bad oc can make a serviceable qb look like crap -
  15. rrlbees

    rrlbees Administrator Staff Member

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    4 drops killed is there. Not all the WR fault as Allen has to take something off the ball at times. His ball come out quick and on a rope. If the WR's have a hard time adjusting then Allen needs to soften it until they do. Nassib was similar but a guy like Lemon, when he had 2 healthy hands, could catch anything even if not a perfect throw.


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  16. storange

    storange Starter

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    The other x factor is Allen has 5 games left. I have come to peace with the fact that there won't be a bowl,or at least highly unlikely. So let's get ready for 2014
  17. anomander

    anomander Hall of Fame

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    Can we average in Allen's 0 qbr rating vs Wagner for fun?


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  18. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    what are you talking about? he had a 150 against wagner
  19. anomander

    anomander Hall of Fame

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    Well that shows just how flawed this analysis is then because he went 3 and out 3 straight drives before gettig booed off the field


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  20. longislandcuse

    longislandcuse Living Legend

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    Can't really get on Allen when in his first drive against Ga Tech he has .2 seconds before an unblocked pass rusher chases him out of the pocket and then next play he throws a decent ball that goes right through the WR's hands and is tipped for an INT. Outside of Broyld noone can get open and when they do get open, its about a 20% chance Hunt sees them, then out of that 20%, its another 20% chance they are able to catch a pass like a normal functioning football player.
  21. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    the only justification for hunt is what he did against wagner and it's essential for you to ignore that allen did just fine when he came back in

    you are really going to bat for a guy who is playing horribly.
  22. anomander

    anomander Hall of Fame

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    And I'll be the first to admit he is playing horribly, but Allen was worse and gives you less


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  23. ImperialOrange

    ImperialOrange Living Legend

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    That's a bit tricky. What was his rating the first 3 series vs coming in late when the game was put away?
  24. ImperialOrange

    ImperialOrange Living Legend

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    Can we teach Allen to run? If we can't teach Hunt to pass, wouldn't that be or other option since Loeb apperently isn't a consideration?
  25. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    i'm for throwing out the wagner and tulane entirely

    they suck, those games don't mean sh!t. hunt was great against wagner starters, allen was really good against wagner backups maybe? who cares, it's f*cking wagner.
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  26. ImperialOrange

    ImperialOrange Living Legend

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    Don't disagree but that's the one game where we saw the 2 QB's vs opposition starters and 1 obviously was more effective. That's all we've really got to go off of at this point.

    We may really need to alternate series from here out.
  27. TBCuse11

    TBCuse11 Starter

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    we cant get ready for 2014, because our best two QB for next year are not even on the roster yet.

    This argument needs to die. I have fallen victim to talking about it over and over as well, but it doesnt really matter. We all know that Drew Allen throws a much better ball. We all know that Hunt is the better runner. We also know that both are TERRIBLE at making reads. In short, both are bad.
  28. anomander

    anomander Hall of Fame

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    This is depressing. I thought we were past this sh!t. The diarrhea and constipation analogy was unfortunately dead on. This is awful. Sad thing it's not even our biggest problem. The ineptness of our DC amazingly dwarfs this issue. Fluck


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  29. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    i'm always going with diarrhea by the way. which one of these guys is diarrhea?
  30. storange

    storange Starter

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    wow from some video and the always perfect star system you know the two recruited QBS are better then the true freshmen, outstanding work on your part.
  31. anomander

    anomander Hall of Fame

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    Allen ... He's quicker to leave


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  32. Entropic

    Entropic Scout Team

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    I think you need to play both to have some semblance of a passing game. Maybe Hunt needs that continual pressure of competition. Allen is clearly a better passer and I believe with a better WR corp he would be doing fine, not great but adequate. The game is too fast for Hunt in terms of the passing game. He throws late and makes slow decisions. Hunts big thing the first couple of games was looking off defenders and he is no longer doing that. He will not be remotely successful unless he and go through his progressions quicker and not telegraph his throws. Allen telegraphs his throws and and has a low release but he has the velocity to make up for it, on occasion. Neither are the answer, maybe both can work?
  33. xc84

    xc84 Hall of Fame

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    Kind like choosing between which of two threads you have started we should first click on.
  34. BlackKnight76

    BlackKnight76 All Conference

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    Didn't realize QBR weighed in crowd reaction in its calculation.
  35. Rocco

    Rocco Hall of Fame

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    When QB ratings start taking into account everything else a QB does, I'll be interested. With a dual-threat, QBR aren't the end-all.

    We don't beat NC St with Allen at QB IMO. Hunt was big in that game with his feet... Even though his "QBR was low". That's all I'm saying.
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