odds of three passing performances this bad 3 games in a row: 1 in 8,000

Discussion in 'Syracuse Football Board' started by Millhouse, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    If you randomly picked three team QB ratings from last year, you would have a 1 in 8,000 chance of getting all three having a QB rating less than 70

    69.56 is the high water mark for SU the last three games.

    Last year, only 5% of offenses were that bad in a game.

    5%^3 = .0125%

    1/.0125% = 8,000.

    PS if you just look at hunt who had a 76.51 rating, the odds of three games that bad in a row are 1 in 2,865. Allen's second half really made an unlikely situation even more unlikely.
     
  2. SUFan44

    SUFan44 All Conference

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    Allen is the better QB, supposedly?
     
  3. northacuse

    northacuse All Conference

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    This is looking as complicated as SU's playbook. Can you dumb it down for us dummies?;)
     
  4. rrlbees

    rrlbees Administrator Staff Member

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    Yes he is.


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  5. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    QB ratings vs BCS teams
    Allen: 88
    Hunt: 54

    This is like choosing between constipation and diarrhea and a QB rating is really a passing game rating (WRs have a lot to do with it) but it's interesting

    Even though Hunt is completely incompetent as a passer and Allen is just merely terrible, are we still better off with Hunt running? 88 isn't going to win you anything.

    How does it get to this point? What were they doing in practice the last few years? Did they even try to develop anyone but Nassib?
     
  6. SUFan44

    SUFan44 All Conference

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    Never going to agree with you - and I don't think many here will either.

    QB is much more than throwing a nice ball.
     
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  7. SUFan44

    SUFan44 All Conference

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    In the NFL, you have QBs for 9-10 years. You don't need to develop more than one.

    It's quite clear Marrone took that approach the last four years. And it's rearing its ugly head now.
     
  8. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    agree but that doesn't mean hunt is good at any of those things. he's a decent runner. but i don't know if it would be worth his passing numbers even if he ran like randall cunningham
     
  9. SUFan44

    SUFan44 All Conference

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    Not saying Hunt is good at all. They're both bad.

    'bees is adamant about Allen's being the choice to start because he's the better QB - which I whole-heartedly disagree with.

    With this team, Hunt is the better option IMO than Allen due to his legs and the lack of WR acumen. Not saying he's a good option at all. But he's the better option.
     
  10. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    i think raking is the better option
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. OttoinGrotto

    OttoinGrotto 2016 Iggy Winner

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    Go's going to jump all over me for this, but it seemed really, really weird to me way back in the Paulus days how Marrone always talked about Nassib in terms of how he wasn't ready, didn't have the whole playbook down, etc. Strange because I thought, ok, so if Paulus goes down, then what? We're just screwed because Nassib isn't ready? How is the backup QB not ready? Especially since even back then it was pretty well discussed that Nassib was a pretty smart guy.

    Then Marrone says at one point we're not really sure how good Hunt is, because he's running the scout team.

    Then end of last season all of a sudden word is Loeb is really good and had been challenging Nassib. Seemed to come out of nowhere.

    Anyway, I don't know.
     
  12. storange

    storange Starter

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    Not sure I agree, Allen couldn't drive us to a score with G Tech in soft coverage mode in second half and then late in the game against Techs seconds. Not defending Hunt just saying Allen is certainly no better.
     
  13. IthacaBarrel

    IthacaBarrel Shaky Potatoes

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    Like Millhouse said, it's like choosing between constipation or diaharea or a kick in the face or the nuts. They are both terrible. One can run OK, one can pass two steps below average and one cant pass. It's really not good either way. It's GROB bad for sure.
     
  14. rosconey

    rosconey All Conference

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    a bad oc can make a serviceable qb look like crap -
     
  15. rrlbees

    rrlbees Administrator Staff Member

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    4 drops killed is there. Not all the WR fault as Allen has to take something off the ball at times. His ball come out quick and on a rope. If the WR's have a hard time adjusting then Allen needs to soften it until they do. Nassib was similar but a guy like Lemon, when he had 2 healthy hands, could catch anything even if not a perfect throw.


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  16. storange

    storange Starter

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    The other x factor is Allen has 5 games left. I have come to peace with the fact that there won't be a bowl,or at least highly unlikely. So let's get ready for 2014
     
  17. anomander

    anomander Living Legend

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    Can we average in Allen's 0 qbr rating vs Wagner for fun?


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  18. Millhouse

    Millhouse Living Legend

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    what are you talking about? he had a 150 against wagner
     
  19. anomander

    anomander Living Legend

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    Well that shows just how flawed this analysis is then because he went 3 and out 3 straight drives before gettig booed off the field


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  20. longislandcuse

    longislandcuse Living Legend

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    Can't really get on Allen when in his first drive against Ga Tech he has .2 seconds before an unblocked pass rusher chases him out of the pocket and then next play he throws a decent ball that goes right through the WR's hands and is tipped for an INT. Outside of Broyld noone can get open and when they do get open, its about a 20% chance Hunt sees them, then out of that 20%, its another 20% chance they are able to catch a pass like a normal functioning football player.
     

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