OT: How do you guys handicap a horse race.

[cliftonparksufan]

I am not a daily follower of horse racing but my interest definitely picks up during the Triple Crown season and the Saratoga racing season. I used to pride myself on being a pretty good handicapper but over the years my success rate has gone down. My two favorite bets are picking who I feel is the best horse in the race and betting it across the board and then also picking who I feel are the three best horses and bet them in an exacta box. I also do pretty good with a huge favorite by wheeling him with the field. I think that's a bet that a lot of people miss. I usually am cashing most races but never really hit the mother lode and I usually stay away for the most part from the tri's , the supers and the pick 3's, pick 4's etc except if they are a huge guarantee.

I have a hard time handicapping a race if there is a lot non comps: Different distances, different surfaces, different tracks, different conditions, different classes of race. I usually defer to the beyer rating but I find that not a true number. Otherwise shouldn't the "fastest" horse win every time. How much do you guys even look at the latest workout numbers. Does anyone take that as gospel and how far back do you go. I'm curious on hearing different methods.

I like to listen to professional handicappers and even though they aren't always right, at least they sound very knowledgeable. But as any one who has bet on a race knows, sometimes you can have everything figured out and someone else will win on a 50-1 shot because of their number or color or name.

 

[Toga]

I like to find a jockey's wife and stand behind her line.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I like to find a jockey's wife and stand behind her line.

That reminds me of a time that I was in the clubhouse at Saratoga right after a $100,000 race where the big favorite lost the race down the stretch. As you probably know the jockeys walk through there after the race and the owner of that big favorite was walking with his jockey cursing him out the entire time. I was pissed I lost like $30 bucks or whatever and this guy lost the $100,000 purse because his jockey ran a poor race. It was pretty funny.

 

[bevosu]

I like to find a jockey's wife and stand behind her line.

A little personal info...A couple of decades ago a friend and I were driving from Syracuse to Boston. About halfway between Utica and Albany, on the Thruway, we noticed a car parked on the right shoulder. We figured it was a mechanical problem.

A couple hundred yards ahead we saw two guys walking on the edge of the road. One of whom couldn't have been much over 5ft tall. We decided to pick them up...figured we'd get them to the next rest area...no cell phones back then.

We strike up a conversation..."Where you from?" .."Where are you going?"

Make a long story short...jockey and his manager on their way from Canandaigua, to Springfield, Ma...the Eastern States Exposition (The Big E) . Fingerlakes Race Track to a meet at the ESE.

We and they decided to take them to the exit on the Mass Pike for Springfield. They were in a hurry.

Had time to talk...didn't detect any BS...after we felt comfortable talking I asked the jockey if races were fixed. He said that he could only talk for the jockeys...then he said "some". I asked him to extrapolate. He said the jockeys "fix" 1 to 3 races a card. Always betting a horse to place or show,
knowing that they make sure that horse places or shows. They have others place the bets...obviously.

He told me that he would be back at Fingerlakes Race Track later that summer..look him up and he'll tip me off. I never took him up on it.

I thought he was sincere...like I said I didn't have any sense that I was being played.

Take it for what it's worth...no verification...I was young, I thought it was plausible.

 

[Toga]

A little personal info...A couple of decades ago a friend and I were driving from Syracuse to Boston. About halfway between Utica and Albany, on the Thruway, we noticed a car parked on the right shoulder. We figured it was a mechanical problem.

A couple hundred yards ahead we saw two guys walking on the edge of the road. One of whom couldn't have been much over 5ft tall. We decided to pick them up...figured we'd get them to the next rest area...no cell phones back then.

We strike up a conversation..."Where you from?" .."Where are you going?"

Make a long story short...jockey and his manager on their way from Canandaigua, to Springfield, Ma...the Eastern States Exposition (The Big E) . Fingerlakes Race Track to a meet at the ESE.

We and they decided to take them to the exit on the Mass Pike for Springfield. They were in a hurry.

Had time to talk...didn't detect any BS...after we felt comfortable talking I asked the jockey if races were fixed. He said that he could only talk for the jockeys...then he said "some". I asked him to extrapolate. He said the jockeys "fix" 1 to 3 races a card. Always betting a horse to place or show,
knowing that they make sure that horse places or shows. They have others place the bets...obviously.

He told me that he would be back at Fingerlakes Race Track later that summer..look him up and he'll tip me off. I never took him up on it.

I thought he was sincere...like I said I didn't have any sense that I was being played.

Take it for what it's worth...no verification...I was young, I thought it was plausible.

For the life of me I can't remember where I heard or read it - but the 1-2 races per card to place is exactly what I recall. I did once - to good effect - make sure I stood behind the wife of a jai lai player down in Florida.

 

[AZOrange]

I am not a daily follower of horse racing but my interest definitely picks up during the Triple Crown season and the Saratoga racing season. I used to pride myself on being a pretty good handicapper but over the years my success rate has gone down. My two favorite bets are picking who I feel is the best horse in the race and betting it across the board and then also picking who I feel are the three best horses and bet them in an exacta box. I also do pretty good with a huge favorite by wheeling him with the field. I think that's a bet that a lot of people miss. I usually am cashing most races but never really hit the mother lode and I usually stay away for the most part from the tri's , the supers and the pick 3's, pick 4's etc except if they are a huge guarantee.

I have a hard time handicapping a race if there is a lot non comps: Different distances, different surfaces, different tracks, different conditions, different classes of race. I usually defer to the beyer rating but I find that not a true number. Otherwise shouldn't the "fastest" horse win every time. How much do you guys even look at the latest workout numbers. Does anyone take that as gospel and how far back do you go. I'm curious on hearing different methods.

I like to listen to professional handicappers and even though they aren't always right, at least they sound very knowledgeable. But as any one who has bet on a race knows, sometimes you can have everything figured out and someone else will win on a 50-1 shot because of their number or color or name.

Some of the best advice I've heard is that if you can't walk the paddock, don't bet the race. I miss betting the ponies...

 

[bevosu]

For the life of me I can't remember where I heard or read it - but the 1-2 races per card to place is exactly what I recall. I did once - to good effect - make sure I stood behind the wife of a jai lai player down in Florida.

I remember he said that whether the jockeys played a place or show bet was dependent on where the odds were likely to be.

Sometimes a longshot show will pay better than a place bet.

He said rarely if ever is a winner fixed (by the jockeys). I guess a cut of the purse is a factor?

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Good question, I am a slave to the racing forum and in addition I really like a package that is put together by betmix.com. You can buy for $8 per day for that specific day. I ignore Beyer figures, don't really care about them as I think there is a track bias and at this time of year they can be very deceiving especially when you have horses coming from all over to say Belmont. Horses are coming from all different places in the winter. Saratoga is by far the hardest meet of the year to handicap. I love Santa Anita, I really like a few jocks at SA. Keeneland is another great spot to bet as well. I find Aqueduct unbettable as the claiming horses go from one barn to the next and don't trust what horses are sound and what ones aren't. Certain trainers are just brutal. Won't name names but you can figure it out, the gamesmanship there is just ridiculous. Even many of the more reputable trainers are wolves in sheeps clothing.

That being said, I am huge double, pick 3 and pick 4 player. I don't typically bet a ton of favorites unless I just think the data is overwhelming and I like to single horses along the way to keep the cost down. The payoffs can be huge and at that point, you need to gather your winnings, knowing that you may lose your next 8-9 bets before you get another pay out. case in point this weekend, races 8-11 on Derby day , I played a $4 pick 4 on Saturday at Churchill, hit races 8 and 9, one was a 10-1, one a 3-1 I believe. The 10th was a race that I was going to take a huge shot at I singled the 10, ( 10-1 on the morning line went off probably 4 04 5-1 because of a couple scratches) a horse named Chocolate Ride, horse has been running HUGE lately, horse that likes to go to the lead and had a front running jockey out of California named Joe Talamo. Who won at Fairgrounds on LA Derby Day with a huge race. Horse didn't break well, definitely bounced off the big run last time out, never got the lead, never really factored into the race. Bet loses. I had Pharoah and Dortmund in the 11th but it didn't matter because I lost the 1oth. That said I had 3 horses in the 8th, 3 in the 9th, 1 in the 10th ( Loser) and 2 in the 11th. $18 x 4 equals a $72. Losing bet. The pick 4 paid about $1,000 on a 1$ pick 4, if chocolate ride came in, I would imagine it would have paid close to $2,500- $3000 on a $1 pick 4. Thus, my $4 pick 4 would have probably paid no less that $10,000. Huge payouts on Derby day because of the huge amount of money bet in that day.

My overall point is, you have to take shots when you play doubles, pick 3's and pick 4's. When your shots come in they pay huge as you are betting horses that many others aren't. I don't think you make money long term taking an abundance of favorites. You have to trust your analysis. I have played in quite a few tournaments over the years and the only way to finish well is to catch a few prices, favorites won't do it. I think certain races lend themselves to longer odds, maidens, turf sprints.

Just my thoughts. It's not easy but if you like to wager nothing is better to me than the ponies, sports betting doesn't even compare

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Good question, I am a slave to the racing forum and in addition I really like a package that is put together by betmix.com. You can buy for $8 per day for that specific day. I ignore Beyer figures, don't really care about them as I think there is a track bias and at this time of year they can be very deceiving especially when you have horses coming from all over to say Belmont. Horses are coming from all different places in the winter. Saratoga is by far the hardest meet of the year to handicap. I love Santa Anita, I really like a few jocks at SA. Keeneland is another great spot to bet as well. I find Aqueduct unbettable as the claiming horses go from one barn to the next and don't trust what horses are sound and what ones aren't. Certain trainers are just brutal. Won't name names but you can figure it out, the gamesmanship there is just ridiculous. Even many of the more reputable trainers are wolves in sheeps clothing.

I've attached a copy of a good example of a race from the DRF. It's a $100K stakes race. I haven't really studied it but you have horses entering this race coming off other stakes races of different levels, some coming off an allowance race and one coming off a maiden race. I don't know who won the race but I would have a somewhat difficult time deciding who to bet on. I know this sounds crazy but you could almost make a case for most of the horses in the race.
http://www1.drf.com/misc/samples/gp8.pdf

 

[retro44]

I stuff sponges up the noses to the horses I want to lose.
Pretty easy formula

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I've attached a copy of a good example of a race from the DRF. It's a $100K stakes race. I haven't really studied it but you have horses entering this race coming off other stakes races of different levels, some coming off an allowance race and one coming off a maiden race. I don't know who won the race but I would have a somewhat difficult time deciding who to bet on. I know this sounds crazy but you could almost make a case for most of the horses in the race.
http://www1.drf.com/misc/samples/gp8.pdf

Great example, I typically don't like horses off long lay offs, don't like younger horses that don't show a steady work pattern/ breezes. Thus I would eliminate the 1 and the 8 pretty quickly. The 4 looks decent but again off a bit of a layoff .The maiden winner looks like the speed and will be bet heavily as the favorite, freak almost out of the gate, Won by 11 first time out, to win a maiden special like that at gulfstream winter meet is no joke. I would ask who can beat the 7 if anyone. I would run through the other horses and see if you like of the others, 4 5, 6 and or 9 and see if they would beat the favorite. 6 looks like it's more of a two turn horse. The 7 and 93 beyer will make him the favorite and he will get killed at the betting window. If speed figures were all that matter Bayern would have won in a landslide Saturday. Just a way to get started, easier to start eliminating that picking winners. The 7 wins the race and the form holds. Madcap escapade ( 7 horse) was a freak of nature by the way, injured way too early but I think sold as a broodmare for several million.

 

[PeteCalvin]

Club to the knee. It works in ice skating too.