Our RPI

Discussion in 'Syracuse Basketball Board' started by orangemass, Jan 9, 2017.

  1. orangemass

    orangemass 2nd String

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2011
    Messages:
    683
    Likes Received:
    242
    Is 161... Lots of work to do...
     
    Dave85 likes this.
  2. 81South

    81South 2016 Iggy Winner

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2011
    Messages:
    340
    Likes Received:
    497
    Yes sir and lots of great opportunities lie ahead for this team to get that number down
     
  3. Eric15

    Eric15 Living Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2011
    Messages:
    10,121
    Likes Received:
    18,956
    That's why talk of 9-9 getting us in is absolutely cray cray. Has to be 11-7 with a win in the ACCT for insurance.
     
  4. Cuse'91

    Cuse'91 Starter

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,444
    Likes Received:
    1,338
    Sad to say but;
    Finish top 3 in ACC reg season
    Or
    Win ACC's automatic bid
     
    l'orange likes this.
  5. Dave85

    Dave85 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2013
    Messages:
    8,664
    Likes Received:
    12,500
    How are you coming up with 9-9 or 11-7. We have 15 games left. Are you counting 3 additional games in the ACCT?
     
  6. Brooky03

    Brooky03 https://teespring.com/new-lets-go-orange

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    3,714
    Likes Received:
    5,284
    Let's just win the ACCT and be done with it.
     
    two3zone, orangecuse and SUfaninAZ like this.
  7. Digger

    Digger Scout Team

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2013
    Messages:
    301
    Likes Received:
    832
    Overall ACC regular season record. Including the 3 we've already played.
     
    NineOneSeven and MSOrange like this.
  8. TexanMark

    TexanMark Tailgating Guru

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2011
    Messages:
    12,716
    Likes Received:
    15,360
    RPI wasn't a factor last year...9-9 and 2 wins in the ACC Tourney I think we are in. Gotta beat a Top 10 team in there too.
     
    two3zone likes this.
  9. Briancuse

    Briancuse Living Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2014
    Messages:
    11,122
    Likes Received:
    12,150
    9-9 and we aren't close to the bubble.
     
    NKR1978 and MSOrange like this.
  10. Cuse_1999

    Cuse_1999 2nd String

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2011
    Messages:
    832
    Likes Received:
    574
    We have a stretch coming up with 9 straight games against RPI top 36 teams. As of yesterdays rankings. Go 5-4 during that stretch and i bet our RPI gets into the 60s. Maybe the 50s.
     
  11. Alsacs

    Alsacs Living Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2011
    Messages:
    20,015
    Likes Received:
    17,518
    12-6 or we aren't making the NCAAT.
    We literally have nothing from the OOC schedule.
    Bad losses to UConn/St.Johns/BC.
    We need 12 ACC wins and win a ACCT game.
    We need 20 wins to make the NCAAT.
     
    SU94 and MSOrange like this.
  12. shandeezy7

    shandeezy7 All Conference

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2011
    Messages:
    3,941
    Likes Received:
    4,620
    Yeah 9-9 would require us to reach the ACC championship game, at a minimum, IMO. I guess it's all relative to how strong/weak the bubble is, however.
     
    Briancuse likes this.
  13. sugrad68

    sugrad68 Walk On

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    161
    Likes Received:
    159
    Playing 5 - 6 players in a tournament it will be tough to win 2 games, let alone 3.
     
    two3zone likes this.
  14. AZcuse77

    AZcuse77 Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    103
    This sounds right... I'm not sure even the title game would do it but maybe. We'd be 17-14 going in so losing in the title game would make us 20-15. That probably still requires a very weak bubble I think we'd have to win the whole tourney. Even at 10-8 we'd probably still need to make the title game (21-14). We really need to go 11-7.
     
  15. AZcuse77

    AZcuse77 Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    103
    The RPI is so awful... I guess the committee still looks at it but maybe no longer more than KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.

    At 10-6 we have played some truly awful RPI teams (which overrated SOS) leading to us being #164 as of this post. Yet we are #46 on Sagarin and #52 on KenPom. Huh? That's a 112-118 spot difference! And somehow Wake Forest is RPI #22 at 10-6. What an awful system. RPI has been proven to be the worst tournament predictor of the indexes. Here's an article on CSU being left out at #32 RPI.

    RPI no longer important, NCAA tournament makes example of CSU
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 9, 2017
    LetMeIn likes this.
  16. Cusefannotindc

    Cusefannotindc Scout Team

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2011
    Messages:
    491
    Likes Received:
    479
    Every time you make an early RPI post an angel is beaned in the face with a basketball
     
    LetMeIn, SyracuseTD, br801 and 8 others like this.
  17. jncuse

    jncuse All American

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2012
    Messages:
    6,080
    Likes Received:
    5,775
    upload_2017-1-9_23-23-59.png

    The numbers can move slightly if we get a disproportionate amount of road wins moving forward, or if teams that we played in general play much better then they have shown.

    But those are good estimates in my experience from tracking RPIForecast the past few years.

    Just predicting what the committee would think in each scenario about the RPI, even if it has been diminished.

    While the RPI has been diminished, they will never ignore the expected #98 that comes from being 9-9. A number like #98, says go look for crap and emphasize that. At 9-9 in the ACC we could have 5 top 50 wins which will be about as many as anybody on the bubble, but the committee would emphasize the bad.

    10-8 in the ACC creates an RPI of 82 that is at least close to the highest they have given an at large too. I believe the high is around 75. But still it's a number that will force the committee in my mind to look at the bad losses rather than the top 50 we will inevitably have.

    11-7 in the ACC creates an RPI of 68, which is in range of the lowest RPI each year that gets an at large each year. And given that at 11-7 we will have likely have as many or more top 50 wins than anybody else with a good bubble resume, I think we would get in. Once that RPI is around 70 at least it's around what sometimes gets in, so subconsciously the committee can focus more on the good rather than the bad.

    12-6 would give us an RPI of 55 that is not out of the ordinary at all for a P5 team on the bubble. You can't win 12 ACC games without loading up on top 50 wins and we would have more top 50 wins than likely anybody else on the bubble.

    So in my view 12-6 is the clear lock
    11-7 is the same feeling as we had last year entering the ACC tourney. which means it could very well work.
     
  18. STEVEHOLT

    STEVEHOLT There are FIVE letter in the name BLAIN.

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2011
    Messages:
    4,268
    Likes Received:
    4,452
    Its not the ACC record that matters most. It's who have you beaten on the path to achieving that record. Go near 500 but beat Duke, UNC, virginia, etc, and its a totally different ballgame than a slightly better record with less impressive wins.
     
  19. obliterata

    obliterata All Conference

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,185
    Likes Received:
    3,473
    I think it also depends on how many bids the ACC gets. It'd be hard to keep SU out at 11-7 if the conference gets 10 or 11 bids, even 9 bids should be good enough if 11-7 means 6th place all alone or a tie for 6th with one other team. A tie for 6th with no bid would mean 3 teams with worse conference records got bids and 6th all alone would mean 4 got bids.
     
    two3zone likes this.
  20. Brooky03

    Brooky03 https://teespring.com/new-lets-go-orange

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    3,714
    Likes Received:
    5,284
    We'd be on the bubble's bubble
     
    Briancuse, two3zone and MSOrange like this.

Share This Page