projecting offense yards per game and yards per play (not good)

[Millhouse]

if you plot yards per play per game and put a trendline through it, the line is sloped down.

If you plug that line equation in for games 9, 10, 11, and 12 and calculate yards per play and yards per game for the season, you end up at 5.10 yards per play and 318 yards per game.

Right now 5.1 yards per game is 106th in the country. Almost as bad as last year (111th)

Right now 318 yards per game is 121st in the country. Worse than last year

i'm not saying this is a sure thing, it's not a really obvious pattern in the game data that gives you that trendline. (low r squared)

But the lowest ranked defense in yards per game remaining is Louisville at 17th

We can't pin this all on cupcakes. Louisville, Clemson, and BC have legitimately good defenses. NC state is just average i think

Even if your AD is not inclined to make a move now, these kind of projected results for the year would make someone change their mind if the projection turns out to be right

 

[TheCusian]

if you plot yards per play per game and put a trendline through it, the line is sloped down. If you plug that line equation in for games 9, 10, 11, and 12 and calculate yards per play and yards per game for the season, you end up at 5.10 yards per play and 318 yards per game. Right now 5.1 yards per game is 106th in the country. Almost as bad as last year (111th) Right now 318 yards per game is 121st in the country. Worse than last year i'm not saying this is a sure thing, it's not a really obvious pattern in the game data that gives you that trendline. (low r squared) But the lowest ranked defense in yards per game remaining is Louisville at 17th We can't pin this all on cupcakes. Louisville, Clemson, and BC have legitimately good defenses. NC state is just average i think Even if your AD is not inclined to make a move now, these kind of projected results for the year would make someone change their mind if the projection turns out to be right

Yep. That's exactly why my opinion changed after FSU. I saw the same thing.

If we bust out vs Louisville and reverse the trend, I'd revisit my opinion. But it's not looking good.

 

[qdawgg]

I'd love to put up some points these next few games. It would make the defense look better too.

 

[Millhouse]

if you plot yards per play per game and put a trendline through it, the line is sloped down.

If you plug that line equation in for games 9, 10, 11, and 12 and calculate yards per play and yards per game for the season, you end up at 5.10 yards per play and 318 yards per game.

Right now 5.1 yards per game is 106th in the country. Almost as bad as last year (111th)

Right now 318 yards per game is 121st in the country. Worse than last year

i'm not saying this is a sure thing, it's not a really obvious pattern in the game data that gives you that trendline. (low r squared)

But the lowest ranked defense in yards per game remaining is Louisville at 17th

We can't pin this all on cupcakes. Louisville, Clemson, and BC have legitimately good defenses. NC state is just average i think

Even if your AD is not inclined to make a move now, these kind of projected results for the year would make someone change their mind if the projection turns out to be right

We ended up at 5.11 yards per play and 320 yards per game. Matched the trend almost perfectly