JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
- Joined
- Aug 15, 2011
- Messages
- 40,081
- Like
- 49,924
Wanted to get a full preview out but time constraints unfortunately squashed that but just wanted to expand on my post from the beginning of the week on the matchup.
As I said in my earlier post Albany is certainly a good team with several excellent players and if they won tonight I don't think anyone would be shocked like they were after the 2010 and 2014 first round upsets. All that said its hard to feel confident that SU would need a complete breakdown ala the Cornell game to lose this game due to the fact that they match up so well.
SU has the advantage at pretty much every position save for Goalie and you could make an argument that the starting attack lines are pretty close. At Faceoff, Defense, midfield, and depth SU has a clear and in some cases large advantage. For Albany they clearly have a wealth of experience playing Syracuse in the Dome so that will play no factor, however, Albany success vs SU isnt great. In the history of Albany including Marr at HC Albany has beaten Syracuse exactly once three years ago in double OT. Since that game Syracuse beat Albany in OT the next year and has blown Albany out the last two years. Not saying those games will play any role tonight but I think the familiarity with SU is a double edged sword for Albany in this instance.
Concerns for SU:
Riordan standing on his head - Albany has to have it and I have already resigned myself to the fact that he will have a good game. The questions is does he have 12-15 saves or does he get into 18-21 territory. SU needs to pepper him early and often. Scott Marr in an interview this week said he thought Riordan needed to be in the upper teens or low 20s in saves for Albany to win, I don't think he was wrong.
Molloy letdown - Evan Molloy outside of the Cornell game has been excellent. Against both UNC and Duke he had several point blank saves and turned in just an unbelievable performance. That said hes going into his first playoff game with only a handful of starts under his belt. Wouldnt be surprising if he struggled early based on the level of the moment. SU needs him to turn in a good game, he doesn't have to be nearly as good as Riordan (most likely) but if he struggles SU will likely be in big trouble.
Depth Scoring - SU needs Evans, Dejoe and the second midline to produce 4+ points between them. Not a tall task at all but in games where SU has ultimately lost they have usually gotten zero out of the second line and minimal output for Dejoe and Evans. Evans needs to play a smart game and avoid multiple turnovers. He seemed to be playing well the last month or so but looked less then stellar against Colgate. Its clear hes not going to turn in a 5 goal game (at least this year) but SU can't afford for him to have three turnovers tonight and a missed layup. Ditto for the second line, would like to see Desko scrap the third line and just mix and match the second. Would look to get Carlin some more PT over Mckinney who seems to really be scuffling at this point.
Despite the points I listed above I still like SU in this game. Ben Williams has a huge edge and the Syracuse midfield has really hurt albany the past few years. Salcido and Mariano are going to get some great looks tonight if their accuracy is on I like them to put up nice numbers. X factor for me is Barber. With Evans and Dejoe being unknowns from game to game Barber needs to be that critical fourth scorer along with Donahue, Salcido and Mariano. I am also interested to see if Piroli makes any sort of impact he looked the best physically against Colgate then he has since his injury. Wonder if he sees some run at Midfield or at attack if Evans struggles.
Huge game for SU here, would be a real tough blow to turn the season around after the ND and Cornell debacle and then lose to an Albany team in the 1st round they have pretty much dominated the last two years. Im looking for the knowns to be big tonight ie Mellen, Mullins, Williams, Grimm, Firman, Salcdio, and Mariano. These guys need to play like they did in the 1st game versus Albany and really flex their muscles.
I think a close game for a while but I like SU to pull away late 13-8 final. Keys are Williams, Riordan, and Syracuse's midfield.
As I said in my earlier post Albany is certainly a good team with several excellent players and if they won tonight I don't think anyone would be shocked like they were after the 2010 and 2014 first round upsets. All that said its hard to feel confident that SU would need a complete breakdown ala the Cornell game to lose this game due to the fact that they match up so well.
SU has the advantage at pretty much every position save for Goalie and you could make an argument that the starting attack lines are pretty close. At Faceoff, Defense, midfield, and depth SU has a clear and in some cases large advantage. For Albany they clearly have a wealth of experience playing Syracuse in the Dome so that will play no factor, however, Albany success vs SU isnt great. In the history of Albany including Marr at HC Albany has beaten Syracuse exactly once three years ago in double OT. Since that game Syracuse beat Albany in OT the next year and has blown Albany out the last two years. Not saying those games will play any role tonight but I think the familiarity with SU is a double edged sword for Albany in this instance.
Concerns for SU:
Riordan standing on his head - Albany has to have it and I have already resigned myself to the fact that he will have a good game. The questions is does he have 12-15 saves or does he get into 18-21 territory. SU needs to pepper him early and often. Scott Marr in an interview this week said he thought Riordan needed to be in the upper teens or low 20s in saves for Albany to win, I don't think he was wrong.
Molloy letdown - Evan Molloy outside of the Cornell game has been excellent. Against both UNC and Duke he had several point blank saves and turned in just an unbelievable performance. That said hes going into his first playoff game with only a handful of starts under his belt. Wouldnt be surprising if he struggled early based on the level of the moment. SU needs him to turn in a good game, he doesn't have to be nearly as good as Riordan (most likely) but if he struggles SU will likely be in big trouble.
Depth Scoring - SU needs Evans, Dejoe and the second midline to produce 4+ points between them. Not a tall task at all but in games where SU has ultimately lost they have usually gotten zero out of the second line and minimal output for Dejoe and Evans. Evans needs to play a smart game and avoid multiple turnovers. He seemed to be playing well the last month or so but looked less then stellar against Colgate. Its clear hes not going to turn in a 5 goal game (at least this year) but SU can't afford for him to have three turnovers tonight and a missed layup. Ditto for the second line, would like to see Desko scrap the third line and just mix and match the second. Would look to get Carlin some more PT over Mckinney who seems to really be scuffling at this point.
Despite the points I listed above I still like SU in this game. Ben Williams has a huge edge and the Syracuse midfield has really hurt albany the past few years. Salcido and Mariano are going to get some great looks tonight if their accuracy is on I like them to put up nice numbers. X factor for me is Barber. With Evans and Dejoe being unknowns from game to game Barber needs to be that critical fourth scorer along with Donahue, Salcido and Mariano. I am also interested to see if Piroli makes any sort of impact he looked the best physically against Colgate then he has since his injury. Wonder if he sees some run at Midfield or at attack if Evans struggles.
Huge game for SU here, would be a real tough blow to turn the season around after the ND and Cornell debacle and then lose to an Albany team in the 1st round they have pretty much dominated the last two years. Im looking for the knowns to be big tonight ie Mellen, Mullins, Williams, Grimm, Firman, Salcdio, and Mariano. These guys need to play like they did in the 1st game versus Albany and really flex their muscles.
I think a close game for a while but I like SU to pull away late 13-8 final. Keys are Williams, Riordan, and Syracuse's midfield.
