Runs and Bases: 1980's Part 2

[SWC75]

PART 2

A DEAD MARKET AND A LIVE BALL

Having lost their interpretation of the reserve clause to arbitration and failed to break the union with a strike, the owners resorted to an old strategy, a “gentleman’s agreement” not to fully utilize the talent pool by not offering contracts to a certain group of players. In the old days, that was black players: now it was free agents. The legal term for this is collusion.

One of Marvin Miller’s first negotiations with the owners back in 1968 came in the wake of the combined hold out of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. The owners didn’t want players to form “package deals” like that. Miller agreed, providing the owners didn’t do it either. He got the following language written into the collective bargaining agreement: "Players shall not act in concert with other players and clubs shall not act in concert with other clubs." (Wikipedia).

In the 1984 owner’s meetings, the owners agreed among themselves to limit contracts to 3 years for positon players and 2 years for pitchers. It’s OK for a club to decide to do that on their own but all the teams or multiple teams couldn’t do that under the CBA.

That wasn’t immediately noticeable but what happened the next year was. There were 35 free agents in the market and four of them were offered contracts. All four of those were no longer wanted by their old teams. The Union filed a grievance. That went to an arbitrator- two years later- who ruled that the CBA had been violated. By that time two more groups of free agents had found themselves unwanted and two more grievances had been filed. Most signed with their old clubs- for one year contracts so they could try it again. For the first time since Ed Seitz’s 1976 ruling on the reserve clause, the average major league salary declined and the salaries of the free agents declined by 15%.

The punishment devised by the arbitrator in the first case was a flat penalty payment of $10.5 million to be distributed by the union and a “second chance” to be free agents for seven players who ahd signed multi-year contracts. Only 14 of the original 35 free agents were still in baseball when this was announced in January, 1988. The second grievance, (the one for 1986), was decided in October, 1989 had the same result, except the penalty was now $38 million. The third grievance, based on 1987, produced damages of $64.5 million. Finally the three cases were combined on appeal and produced an agreement in November 1990 for the owners to pay a total of $280 million. Would that be enough to get the owners to stop?

Commissioner Fay Vincent called a halt to it, telling the owners: “The single biggest reality you guys have to face up to is collusion. You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.” He alter blamed the 1994-5 strike on “player anger at what he called the owners' theft from the players”. He also claimed that the 1993 and 1998 expansions were designed to get the owners money to pay the penalty from the expansion fees they charged the new owners , (again Wikipedia).

Even this didn’t stop the collusion. The union got another settlement of $12 million after a 2002 allegation and field grievances on behalf of t Alex Rodriguez in 2007 and Barry Bonds in 2008. The union announced “concerns” about collusion in 2010. Of course, one man’s prudence is another man’s collusion. It’s likely to be an ongoing issue.

Marvin Miller considered this to be a worse scandal than the Black Sox, because it involved all the clubs and was an agreement not “to improve your team”, which “fixed the pennant race”:

In 1987, some remarkable things began happening. Balls were flying out of ball parks. I remember seeing a ballgame on TV where a player hit a home run when his bat shattered. Don Mattingly hit home runs in 8 consecutive games. Players were hitting more home runs than they ever had before. George Bell, who had never hit more than 31 homers in a season, hit 47. He would never hit more than 25 again. Wade Boggs hit 24 home runs. His only other season in double figures was 11 seven years later. Dale Sveum hit 25 homers. His only year in double figures was 12 ten years later. Jack Clark hit a career high 35 home runs despite missing 31 games. Will Clark also hit 35 and never hit 30 in any other year. Eric Davis also had a career high with 37, despite missing 33 games. Andre Dawson won the MVP with 49 home runs. He never had more than 32 in any other year. Brook Jacoby, who had never hit more than 20 homers, hit 32 - and then 9 the next year. Howard Johnson went from a career high of 12 to 36. Wally Joyner went from 22 to 34. He never hit more than 21 again. A rookie named Mark McGwire set a record with 49 home runs, a figure it took him 9 years to top. Lloyd Mosby, a center fielder known for his speed, hit 26 homers – and 10 the next year. Devon White, a center fielder noted for his speed, hit 24 homers- and 11 the next year. Dale Murphy went from 29 to 44 and then back to 24 in 1988. Rookie Matt Nokes impressed with 32 homers- then hit 16 the next year. For Mike Pagliarulo it was 32 to 15. For Larry Parrish, it was 32 to 14. Juan Samuel hit 28 ho0mers and everybody, including the Mets, thought he was a slugger. He never hit more than 13 again. Larry Sheets had never hit more than 18, then hit 31, then hit 10 in ’88. Cory Snyder hit 33, then 26 then 18, then 14, then 3. Alan trammel had a career high 28 homers - and never had more than 15 again. So did Andy Van Slyke with 25- and then never more than 17. Ozzie Virgil hit 27 homers- and 10 in the rest of his career. Tim Wallach hit .298 with 26 home runs and 123 RBI- all career highs – in 1987 and then hit .257-12-69 in 1988. Darryl Strawberry was consistent: he hit 39 homers in 1987 and 39 homers in 1988. He was 10 behind Andre Dawson for the 1987 home run crown and won the 1988 home run crown with the same number.

Overall, major league homers went from 3,813 in 1986 to 4,458 in 1987 to 3,180 in 1988. 60 players hit 20+ home runs in 1986 and 13 hit 30+. In 1987, 79 players hit 20+ and 20 hit 30+. In 1988, 45 hit 20+ and 5 hit 30+.

During the season, the difference was noticed immediately. Bobby Bonds took batting practice and said
"I've taken batting practice and I've hit those balls... I've hit the ball as far as I did when I was 25 years old. I'm not that strong. I hit balls really terrible and they go over the fence. When I was playing, I'd hit balls and say, 'Oh my God,' and it didn't go out. Now I hit balls and I say, 'Oh my God,' and they clear the fence by 30 feet.” Sparky Anderson: "Can you imagine the Big Red Machine with that nitroglycerin ball? … Souped? These balls just fly." Jack Morris: "Yes, I think the balls are different." Mike Scott: "I really think that the balls are going farther." Jay Howell joked, "I think it might be something in the trees, maybe it's acid rain causing a hardening of the wood." Bert Blyleven suspected a rabbit ball too. "There's a whole family in there." Garth Iorg, after hitting two home runs: "I'd been hearing about it, but I felt left out. Now I've finally gotten in on the jackrabbit ball." Pitching coach Herm Starette: "The ball is juiced." And Pete Rose: "I definitely think there's a livelier ball." (SB Nation).

Other theories came out of the woodwork:
- Random statistical fluctuation.
- Aluminum bats used in high school and college, which either connived pitchers not to throw fastballs or not throw inside.
- Rushing pitchers to the big leagues.
- Ray Miller offered off-season training and "top-notch athletes" leaving the pitching ranks as other excuses. "Ten years ago, the great athletes were pitchers," Miller said. "Jack Morris, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer -- guys like that. Now the top-notch athletes aren't pitchers. The quality athletes go into other sports or they become hitters."
- Lively bats. Ozzie Virgil, who would hit a career-best 27 home runs in 1987, talked about his more balanced bat. "It's not bottom-heavy the way it was and I'm able to get on top of the pitch a little bit more."
- Corked bats, especially when Billy Hatcher broke his and it was found to be full of the stuff.
- The Umps were calling a smaller strike zone because they stopped using external chest protectors and could see the pitches better.
- Expansion, although 1987 was not an expansion year.
- The weather.
- Steroids were not mentioned at the time but we now know players were already taking them.
- The retropark era had not begun so nobody talked about ballparks, as they would in the 90’s.

What is needed to explain 1987 is an explanation that describes how home run hitting could so sharply increase in one year and then deflate at an even greater rate the next year. It can’t be explained by long-term trends or cheating by the players: why would they suddenly stop? It’s not about new ballparks or expansion. Is it the weather? It’s unlikely the weather would change that markedly or make that much difference. The most likely explanation is that something was different about the ball. MLB insisted there was no difference and offered tests to prove it. But people were not convinced that those tests were conclusive:

Down the Rabbit Hole: Maybe MLB Knows Why Balls Are Hopping Off Bats

Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years

http://deadspin.com/5937432/was-mlbs-juiced-era-actually-a-juiced-ball-era

I remember at the time, reading an article, (which I cannot find now), alleging that the author had talked to someone, then retired, who had worked for decades in the ball manufacture industry and who told him that they had periodically been asked to tighten or loosen the laces on the ball. He said they’d tighten the laces a little each year, which would make it more resilient and thus travel farther when hit, then suddenly loosen them. The author of the article speculated that the idea was to put fannies in the seats by gradually increasing offense each year, making the batters more productive and thus more impressive and putting them in a positon to threaten records, then, when the batters began demanding more money due to their increased productivity, the laces would suddenly be loosened. Suddenly those home runs would become fly-outs and both home runs and batting averages would decrease. The owners could then say no to the player demands or even lower salaries and save money. Then the process would start all over again. The writer said he had examined baseball numbers over the years and concluded that there were 7-8 year cycles of increased offense followed by a precipitous decline in one year, then the beginning of a new cycle. He concluded that 1987 was the end of such a cycle, one which began with the 1981 strike and was enhanced due to the need to try to recover the game’s popularity after that strike, but that it was still part of a decades long trend.

When I look at hitting trends in baseball, I don’t look at home runs because the desire to hit home runs has changed over the years. In the dead ball era, people didn’t try for home runs because it was hard to hit the ball that far. The game was viewed as a cat and mouse game between the batter and the fielders and trying to bludgeon the ball over the fielder’s heads was considered crude and inefficient. Then Babe Ruth came along and he not lonely liked to hit the ball over everybody’s head but he could do with a consistency that had never been seen. Aided by the fact that the owners were urged to replace soiled balls during games in the wake of the influenza epidemic, which meant that the Babe was hitting ‘new’ balls each time up, Ruth transformed the game. But it was a gradual transformation. The immediate impact of the ‘new’ balls was an increase in batting averages because players were still playing the same game they had always played: hit the ball between fielders and run the bases aggressively. Ruth’s popularity caused baseball owners to look for their own version of Ruth and Gehrig caused them to look for a second one. Eventually every team had at least one home run hitter in middle of their order. But they guys in front of them were told to get on base and stay there until the big hit and the guys behind them were in there for their defense. In the TV era, the home run was the route to glory, glory being defined as getting in the highlight reel and more and more players tried to hit home runs, especially when the steroid/juiced ball era began. So overall home run rates have been a product of desire as well as capability. It’s not as if all players have always been trying to hit home runs and the live ball era allowed them to do it.

But players have always been trying to hit the ball hard. It gets between the fielders faster that way. So if you look at all kinds of hits, singles, doubles, triples and home runs, you get a better picture of the liveliness of the ball. That’s what slugging percentage does and here are the major league slugging percentages since the beginning of the “live ball era”, (really the “new ball era”) in 1920:

1920’s

1920 .373 1921 .404 1922 .402 1923 .392 1924 .395 1925 .412
1926 .389 1927 .394 1928 .397 1929 .417 Average: .398

1930’s

1930 .435 1931 .392 1932 .401 1933 .377 1934 .398 1935 .397
1936 .405 1937 .399 1938 .396 1939 .397 Average: .400

1940’s

1940 .392 1941 .376 1942 .351 1943 .345 1944 .359 1945 .355
1946 .361 1947 .378 1948 .383 1949 .385 Average: .369

1950’s

1950 .403 1951 .386 1952 .370 1953 .398 1954 .391 1955 .395
1956 .398 1957 .392 1958 .395 1959: .393 Average: .392

1960’s

1960 .388 1961 .401 1962 .394 1963 .372 1964 .379 1965 .373
1966 .377 1967 .358 1968 .341 1969 .370 Average: .375

1970’s

1970 .386 1971 .366 1972 .355 1973 .379 1974 .370 1975 .375
1976 .362 1977 .402 1978 .379 1979 .397 Average: .377

1980’s

1980 .388 1981 .369 1982 .388 1983 .389 1984 .384 1985 .390
1986 .394 1987 .415 1988 .377 1989 .375 Average: .387

1990’s

1990 .386 1991 .384 1992 .378 1993 .404 1994 .425 1995 .418
1996 .427 1997 .420 1998 .422 1999 .435 Average: .410

2000’s

2000 .438 2001 .427 2002 .417 2003 .423 2004 .428 2005 .419
2006 .422 2007 .423 2008 .417 2009 .419 Average: .423

2010’s

2010: .403 2011: .400 2012:: .406 2013: .402 2014: .387 2015: .405

I don’t see any pattern there in the ball getting livelier for a number of years in a row and then suddenly dropping. There was an increase from 1984-87 and then a big drop. It may be that the owners decided to gradually juice the ball in those four years and then loosen the laces. It would make more sense to have a 4-5 offensive run rather than wait 7-8 years to “correct” things. You sign a lot of contracts in 7-8 years and you wouldn’t want to be stuck with them when the players stopped producing. It may have been just an isolated example of the owners trying to get the fans back after the ’81 strike by spiking the offensive numbers and then normalizing things once attendance was up.

It’s interesting that in this decade, slugging has gone down compared to the 1994-2009 era but it hasn’t gone down to the pre-1994 levels. That could reflect a reduction in steroid use but not a reduction in resiliency of the ball. They do show that 1987 belongs with the 1994-2009 era. Whatever happened then may well have been what happened in the next decade, a hint of things to come.

 

[SWC75]

RUNS AND BASES
Runs produced = runs scored + runs batted in +- home runs so you don’t count them twice.
Bases produced = total batting bases, (one for a single, two for a double, three for a triple and four for a home run) + walks + steals

1985 National League

Runs Produced
Tommy Herr STL 199
Dale Murphy ATL 192
Willie McGee STL 186
Dave Parker CIN 179
Ryne Sandberg CHI 170
Keith Hernandez NY 168
Keith Moreland CHI 166
Glenn Wilson PHI 161
Juan Samuel PHI 156
Hubie Brooks MON 154

Bases Produced
Dale Murphy ATL 432
Tim Raines MTL 424
Ryne Sandberg CHI 418
Dave Parker CIN 407
Willie McGee STL 398
Mike Schmidt PHI 380
Pedro Guerrero LA 376
Juan Samuel PHI 375
Vince Coleman, STL 373
Tommy Herr STL 359

1985 American League

Runs Produced
Don Mattingly NY 217
Eddie Murray BAL 204
Cal Ripken BAL 200
Rickey Henderson NY 194
Dave Winfield NY 193
George Brett KC 190
Bill Buckner BOS 183
Julio Franco CLE 181
Wade Boggs BOS 178
Harold Baines CHI 177

Bases Produced
Rickey Henderson NY 461
George Brett KC 434
Don Mattingly NY 428
Wade Boggs BOS 410
Kirk Gibson DET 402
Dwight Evans BOS 401
Phil Bradley SEA 396
Eddie Murray BAL 394
Jesse Barfield TOR 377
Cal Ripken BAL 370

1986 National League

Runs Produced
Von Hayes PHI 186
Mike Schmidt PHI 179
Dave Parker CIN 174
Keith Hernandez NY 164
Gary Carter NY 162
Glenn Davis HOU 161
Kevin McReynolds NY 159
Juan Samuel PHI 152
Tony Gywnn SD 152
Tim Raines MON 144

Bases Produced
Tim Raines MON 424
Mike Schmidt PHI 392
Von Hayes PHI 391
Tony Gwynn SD 389
Steve Sax LA 378
Dale Murphy ATL 368
Eric Davis CIN 365
Dave Parker CIN 361
Kevin McReynolds NY 356
Glenn Davis HOU 350

1986 American League

Runs Produced
Joe Carter CLE 200
Don Mattingly NY 199
Jim Rice BOS 188
Kirby Puckett MIN 184
George Bell TOR 178
Ricky Henderson NY 176
Jesse Barfield TOR 175
Wade Boggs BOS 170
Dave Winfield NY 170
Jose Canseco OAK 169

Bases Produced
Rickey Henderson NY 461
Don Mattingly NY 441
Kirby Puckett MIN 419
Jesse Barfield TOR 406
Joe Carter CLE 402
George Bell TOR 389
Wade Boggs BOS 387
Gary Gaetti MIN 375
Jim Rice BOS 365
Cal Ripken BAL 363

1987 National League

Runs Produced
Tim Wallach MON 186
Juan Samuel, PHI 185
Eric Davis CIN 183
Ozzie Smith STL 179
Andre Dawson CHI 178
Dale Murphy ATL 176
Tim Raines MON 173
Darryl Strawberry NY 173
Willie McGee STL 170
Mike Schmidt PHI 166

Bases Produced
Dale Murphy ATL 459
Darryl Strawberry NY 443
Tony Gwynn SD 439
Juan Samuel PHI 424
Tim Raines MON 419
Eric Davis CIN 415
Vince Coleman STL 402
Von Hayes PHI 400
Andre Dawson CHI 396
Howard Johnson NY 394

1987 American League

Runs Produced
Dwight Evans BOS 198
George Bell TOR 198
Alan Trammell DET 186
Wally Joyner CAL 183
Robin Yount MIL 181
Don Mattingly NY 178
Lloyd Moseby TOR 176
Ruben Sierra TEX 176
Paul Molitor MIL 173
Gary Gaetti MIN 173

Bases Produced
Dwight Evans BOS 418
Mark McGwire OAK 416
George Bell TOR 413
Alan Trammell DET 410
Danny Tartabull KC 403
Phil Bradley SEA 403
Robin Yount MIL 399
Lloyd Moseby TOR 389
Brian Downing CAL 387
Wally Joyner CAL 378

1988 National League

Runs Produced
Will Clark SF 182
Andy Van Slyke PIT 176
Darryl Strawberry NY 163
Bobby Bonilla PIT 163
Andres Galarraga MON 162
Kirk Gibson DET 157
Kevin McReynolds NY 154
Eric Davis CIN 148
Glenn Davis HOU 147
Brett Butler SF 146

Bases Produced
Darryl Strawberry NY 410
Will Clark SF 401
Andy Van Slyke PIT 384
Andres Galarraga MON 381
Kirk Gibson LA 366
Brett Butler SF 366
Bobby Bonilla PIT 366
Barry Bonds SF 353
Andre Dawson CHI 347
Kal Daniels CIN 346


1988 American League

Runs Produced
Kirby Puckett MIN 206
Jose Canseco OAK 202
Dwight Evans BOS 186
Mike Greenwell BOS 183
Wade Boggs BOS 181
Dave Winfield NY 178
Dave Henderson BOS 170
Robin Yount, MIL 170
George Brett KC 169
Ellis Burks BOS 167

Bases Produced
Jose Canseco OAK 465
Mike Greenwell BOS 416
Wade Boggs BOS 413
George Brett KC 396
Rickey Henderson NY 396
Paul Molitor Mil 387
Kirby Puckett MIN 387
Fred McGriff TOR 381
Dave Winfield NY 374
Robin Yount MIL 374

1989 National League

Runs Produced
Will Clark SF 192
Kevin Mitchell SF 178
Howard Johnson NY 169
Pedro Guerrero STL 160
Bobby Bonilla PIT 158
Ryne Sandberg CHI 150
Lonnie Smith ATL 147
Von Hayes PHI 145
Jack Clark SD 144
Terry Pendleton STL 144

Bases Produced
Howard Johnson NY 437
Kevin Mitchell SF 435
Will Clark SF 403
Bobby Bonilla PIT 386
Von Hayes PHI 379
Ryne Sandberg CHI 375
Barry Bonds PIT 372
Glenn Davis HOU 359
Lonnie Smith ATL 358
Pedro Guerrero STL 353

1989 American League

Runs Produced
Ruben Sierra TEX 191
Robin Yount MIL 183
George Bell TOR 174
Don Mattingly NY 169
Mike Greenwell BOS 168
Wade Boggs BOS 164
Dwight Evans BOS 162
Bo Jackson KC 159
Julio Franco TEX 159
Alvin Davis SEA 158

Bases Produced
Ricky Henderson OAK 419
Fred McGriff TOR 415
Robin Yount MIL 396
Ruben Sierra TEX 395
Wade Boggs BOS 388
Paul Molitor MIL 361
Don Mattingly NY 355
Joe Carter CLE 355
Nick Esasky BOS 349
Alvin Davis SEA 348


Cumulative Run Production rankings, (10 points for 1st, 9 for 2nd, etc. )

Honus Wagner (1897-1917) 137
Ty Cobb (1905-28) 126
Cap Anson (1871-97) 119
Stan Musial (1941-63) 119
Lou Gehrig (1923-39) 111

Babe Ruth (1914-35) 109
Hank Aaron (1954-76) 105
Willie Mays (1951-73) 100
Sam Crawford (1899-1917) 96
Rogers Hornsby (1915-37) 89

Ted Williams (1939-60) 89
Mel Ott (1926-47) 85
Mickey Mantle (1951-68) 82
Tris Speaker (1907-28) 81
Joe Medwick (1932-48) 79

Mike Schmidt (1972-89) 79
Frank Robinson (1956-76) 78
Joe DiMaggio (1936-51) 77
Nap Lajoie (1896-1916) 77
King Kelly (1878-93) 76

Hugh Duffy (1888-1906) 75
Eddie Collins (1906-30) 74
Dan Brouthers (1879-1904) 73
Jimmie Foxx (1925-45) 72
Sherry Magee (1904-19) 68

Comment: The only change was that Mike Schmidt, whose career is now over, made it to 79 points and 16th overall. I think the increased number of players and teams in the big leagues makes it harder to make the top ten or get to the top of it and accumulate points. Of course in the next decade, there will be an offensive expolosion in baseball but I don’t believe it will change that essential fact.


Cumulative Base Production rankings (same system)

Ty Cobb (1905-28) 129
Hank Aaron (1954-76) 127
Babe Ruth(1914-35) 125
Stan Musial (1941-63) 121
Lou Gehrig (1923-39) 120

Willie Mays(1951-73) 118
Ted Williams(1939-60) 115
Honus Wagner (1897-1917) 112
Tris Speaker(1907-28) 110
Mel Ott (1926-47) 107

Rogers Hornsby (1915-37) 98
Jimmie Foxx (1925-45) 96
Mickey Mantle(1951-68) 96
Mike Schmidt(1972-89) 94
Cap Anson (1871-97) 91

Billy Hamilton (1888-1901) 89
Eddie Collins (1906-30) 89
Harry Stovey1880-93) 88
Sam Crawford (1899-1917) 86
Dan Brouthers (1879-1904) 83

Ricky Henderson (1979-2003) 81
Ed Delahanty (1888-1903) 79
Frank Robinson (1956-76) 79
Carl Yastremski (1961-83) 76
Jim O’Rourke (1872-1904) 73
Max Carey (1910-29) 73
Harmon Killebrew (1954-75) 73

Comment: Here Mike made it to 94 points and #14 all-time. But Rickey Henderson also vaulted into the top 25 with 81 points, based on his combination of hitting, walking and stealing bases- the greatest lead-off man ever. And he’s going to play another 14 years!

 

[SWC75]

THE PLAYERS

RICKY HENDERSON was baseball’s greatest lead-off hitter, greatest base stealer and greatest run-scorer and boy, did he know it. He had already been making headlines since he arrived in the big leagues in 1979. In his second season, (and first full one), he hit .303, walked 117 times and stole 100 bases. In 1982 he broke Lou Brock’s single season stolen base record with 130. Later he would break Bock’s career record for steals with Brock present, at which time he said “Lou Brock was the symbol of great base stealing. But today, I'm the greatest of all time.” He was right, but….

Henderson batted from a crouch, causing Jim Murray to say that Henderson’s strike zone was "smaller than Hitler's heart". That didn’t prevent him from hitting for power. He hit, 510 doubles 66 triples and 297 home runs for a total of 873 extra base hits. And, of course, most of his incredi8ble 1,406 steals turned singles into doubles so he had the equivalent of over 2,000 extra base hits. Mickey Mantle had 952 homers and 153 steals, so he had about half as many. Using my “base production” stat, Henderson produced 8,184 bases to Mickey’s 6,397 and produced 3,113 runs to Mantle’s 2,649. Of course Ricky played in an incredible 25 years to Mickey’s 18. But that longevity is to his credit.

Rickey had a flashy style, using Willie Mays’ “basket catch but adding a Zorro-like flourish by whipping his hand behind his back after the catch. He honored Mays by wearing his #24 while he played in Oakland and even later with the Mets, even though Willie’s number had supposedly been retired there. Bill James once said of Henderson, "If you could split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers." Maybe that’s why Rickey always referred to himself in the third person.

I remember he once signed a $3 million a year contract, the richest in baseball at the time. Then somebody else signed a contract for more than that. He sourly said something about “wanting to be respected” and demanded a contract that would make him the highest paid player in baseball, no matter what someone else got: he wanted his contract increased to put him back in the lead, so he would be appropriately ‘respected’. What if two players had such a contract?


Henderson’s greatest years came when he was leading off for the Yankees and DON MATTINGLY was batting third. Those were also Mattingly’s greatest years. They made a great pair. But Henderson’s peregrinations and Mattingly’s back made their partnership too brief. In 1985, Henderson scored a career and decade high 146 runs while Mattingly had a career high and decade high 145 RBIs. One must conclude that a large percentage of those RBIs were runs Henderson cored and a large percentage of Henderson’s runs were driven in by Mattingly.

Don was a native of Indiana and great admirer of Larry Bird. So much so he got a bad back just like Bird and it curtailed his career, just like Bird. Like Bird, he got a reputation as the best player in the game in his brief period of excellence. Unlike Bird, Don, despite being a Yankee, never played on a championship team and isn’t in the Hall of Fame, both of which are a shame. (Actually, the bad back was involuntary, supposedly the result of some clubhouse horseplay with pitcher Bob Shirley.)

Don was the All-American guy who made good in the big town. Bill James says this about Gil Hodges but bring Mattingly into the discussion: “A genuinely beloved player. How many players from each generation are genuinely beloved, all around the country? Three or four I would say; the public always wants to embrace players but the embrace is stifling and uncomfortable and most players break free of it as quickly as they can. Only a few players are comfortable accepting the public’s adoration, and trying to meet the standard of conduct that goes along with the expectations of being the Nation’s Son. Ken Griffey, Cal Ripken, Sammy Sosa, (he was writing in 2000), Kirby Puckett and Don Mattingly in this generation. In the last, Yogi, Musial.”

Don had a quiet start to his career. He was a 19th round draft pick of average size, (6-0 175), and was a .300+ hitter throughout a 4+ year minor league career but with single-digit home run power. He had a 7 game cup of coffee in 1982 and hit .283 with 4 home runs in 91 games in ’83. Then came his great battle with teammate Dave Winfield for the 1984 batting title, which the much lesser-known Mattingly won .343 to .340. Don also hit 23 home runs, (while striking out only 33 times) and drove in 110 runs, scoring 91. Then came Henderson and the huge year for both of them in 1985. Don hit .324 and upped his home run total to 35, a career high, (with 41 strikeouts). I remember Mattingly launching a bunch of powerful drives into those right field seats, several of them into the upper deck. It was like each one was a replay of the last one.

The next year he blasted 238 hits 53 of them doubles and 31 of them home runs, (35 skos). He hit a career high .352 and drove in 113 runs, (Henderson scored 130). The next year he had that 8 home runs in 8 games streak that tied a record set by Dale Long back in the 50’s. But he also missed 21 games. But he still hit .327 with 30 homers, (38 skos) and 115 RBIs.( Henderson scored 78 in 95 games). In 1988 Don’s power output dropped to 18 homers, (29 skos), and 88 RBIs but he still hit .311. (Henderson scored 118 in 140 games). Don ended the decade with his last big year, hitting .303 with 23 home runs, (30skos), and 113 RBI’s. Henderson was traded in mid-season and Don’s back was beginning to become a problem. The great years were over.

Don played for 6 more years but only hit .300 once, (.304 in 2004). He hit a total of 58 home runs in those years, with a high of 17. He never drove in more than 86 runs. He continue to field his positon, (1st base), excellently, winning a total of 9 gold gloves. The Yankees had the best record in the American league in 1994- but there was no post season. The next year the Yankees made the playoffs for the first time in Don’s career. They lost in 5 games to the Mariners. The Yankees obtained Tino Martinez from the Mariners to replace him. Don sat out the 1986 season without a contract and then decided to formalize his retirement. He watched Martinez and the Yankees win 4 World Series in five years. Many Yankee fans felt that that would have been a wonderful way for Don to have finished his career. Instead Martinez, who had similar home run and RBI numbers but who never hit .300 or won a Gold Glove and struck out 2-3 times as much as Mattingly, got the glory.

I remember reading an extensive Bill James article comparing Mattingly to his exact contemporary and rival, Wade Boggs. Both hit for high averages. Boggs walked more but both scored lot of runs. Mattingly had more power and far more RBIs. Mattingly had 9 Gold Gloves to 2. But James concluded that Boggs was the greater player because he was better than the typical third baseman by more than Mattingly was the typical first baseman. I didn’t understand that then and don’t now. When a player is at the plate, he’s not a first baseman or a third baseman. He’s a hitter and Mattingly was clearly a more productive hitter than Boggs. Third base may be the more difficult positon but 9 Gold Gloves is more than 9. Don was clearly the finest baseball player of the 1980’s. He was the best Yankee first baseman since Lou Gehrig and probably the best in all of baseball since Gehrig. And that should put him in the Hall of Fame.


I might have sounded like a Yankee fan in describing Don Mattingly, but I’m actually a Mets fan. And we had a first baseman of our own, KEITH HERNANDEZ. Keith was never quite the hitter Mattingly was but he was a very good hitter, hitting .300 seven times including .344 when he won the batting title for the Cardinals back in 1979, (when he should have been the sole MVP as his numbers were clearly better than Willie Stargell). He also hit .299, .297, .292 and .291 in different seasons and finished with a lifetime batting average of .296. He had decent home run power, hitting between 10 and 18 ten times and 162 for his career. I’ve always said a double was more than half a home run, (it clears the bases and puts the batter in scoring positon) and Keith hit a ton them, as many as 48 in one season. He didn’t have much speed but hit as many as 11 triples in a season. He walked a lot, 100 times in his best season. He had only one 100 RBI season but was 90+ five other times.

But his hitting, as good as it was, wasn’t what made Keith special. He was the greatest defensive first baseman in history, winning 11 gold gloves, the most of any first baseman in history. But even that statistic doesn’t measure his impact on the game. Before Keith came along. first basemen tended to be big, lumbering power hitters who lacked the speed to play in the outfield or the quickness and dexterity to play the other infield positions. His job was to provide a big target for throws and hit home runs. But Keith proved that the position could be a defensive plus if an athletic player played it aggressively. He was the Brooks Robinson of the right side of the infield, gobbling up bunts, catching line drives, diving to keep balls in the infield and he was the master of the 3-6-3 double play.” Pete Rose, when he managed the Cincinnati Reds, compared bunting against Hernandez to "driving the lane against Bill Russell." (Wikipedia) Since Keith came along, managers and general managers have sought out players who could not just hit to play first base, but players who really knew how to play the position.

Keith won rings with two great teams: the 1982 Cardinals and the 1986 Mets. He’s remembered as an on-the-field leader, almost a second manager, getting everyone organized, joining in conferences on the mound. When the Met lost leaders like Keith, Ray Knight and Gary Carter, their slump from the great years they had in the 80’s, (they averaged 95 wins a year from 1984-90: the second place major league team over that time was the Tigers, who averaged 87) to the dismal performances of the early 90’s (59-103).

But Keith isn’t in the Hall of Fame either, although his current prominence as a broadcaster with the Mets may give him a shot with the veteran’s committee as it keeps him in the public eye. But Keith had a downside, too. In high school he sat out a year over a dispute with his manger. He had trouble getting along with White Herzog in St. Louis, who “considered him a bad influence on younger players”. One of the reasons was that Keith’s name came up in the drug trials in Pittsburgh where it was suggested that not only used but distributed cocaine. “The players received season-long suspensions, that were commuted on condition that they donated ten percent of their base salaries to drug-abuse programs, submitted to random drug testing, and contributed 100 hours of drug-related community service.” (Wikipedia).

He was traded from the championship-level Cardinals to the moribund Mets, a development that so disturbed him that he considered quitting the game, (at age 29). He was persuaded that the Mets were bringing up some good young players and would be contenders. He later called the trade “a refreshing change and said it "reenergized" him because of the "young talent, young guys that were hungry". Hernandez became the poster-boy for the "party hard; play harder" Mets of the '80s.” (Wikipedia). But he was named team captain, the first in franchise history.

“In 2006 Hernandez became bogged down by a controversy when he complained about the presence of a female trainer being allowed in the San Diego Padres dugout. He apologized after a barrage of criticism; other women involved in baseball remarked that Hernandez had been known for sexist comments since his days as a player.” (BaseballRefernce.com) it may be that Keith has simply rubbed a few too many people the wrong way during the course of his career and that has come home to roost in his Hall of Fame voting. But he was certainly a great baseball player.

The Mets have had eras, defined by their roller-coaster success rates over their history. In the early 60’s they were the lovable, losers, a tragi-comedy of baseball. Then they because our all-time Cinderella Story, followed by several years of contention and another World Series appearance. Then came a long stretch of being unloveably bad. The team began to pull out of that when Fred Wilpon and Nelson Doubleday bought the team in 1980 and began to use their humble position in the standings to accumulate talent in the draft. This produced many good players but two supreme talents: DARRYL STRAWBERRY and DWIGHT GOODEN. They seemed equivalents of each other on the field. Strawberry hit more long home runs than any player I have ever seen, (of course I was watching the Mets regularly, but, still, it was impressive to watch):

Meanwhile Gooden was putting on his own power display from the mound. He was the greatest young pitcher since Bob Feller and was named “Dr. K” the way Julius Erving, then the most admired basketball player, was “Dr. J”.:
Dwight Gooden 1985 Cy Young Season Highlights!

When the Mets added quality veterans like Hernandez, Carter and Knight, “gamers” like Wally Backman, Jesse Orosco and Mookie Wilson and other young talent like Lenny Dykstra, Kevin Mitchell, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez, the Mets became a dominant team and with the top young hitter and top pitcher in the game, the potential to dominate for years.

Darryl and Dwight were different off the field: Strawberry was moody and confrontational, with a clique of people he trusted around him. Dwight was quiet and reserved but friendly but with a hit of the insecurity that would be his downfall.

Darryl never quite became the player he could have been. People were comparing his swing to Ted Williams and the admiring the power he could generate with those long, muscular arms. But Ted Williams hit .344 lifetime with and on-base percentage of .482 and a slugging percentage of .634. 19.6% of his hits were home runs and he averaged 1.36 strike outs per home run. Darryl hit .259 lifetime with a .357 OBP and .505 SP. 23.9% of his hits were home runs but he averaged 4.04 strike outs per home run. You might say that comparing anyone to Ted Williams is unfair but Darryl was supposed to be a “generational player”, meaning that you had to compare him to players from other generations to be fair. In the field there was a patch of dirt in right field where Strawberry insisted on standing for every batter. He’d catch the balls hit to that spot but was otherwise more of a “retriever” than a fielder. He had the physical capabilities to be a great hitter and a great all-around player, but not the desire. He figured hitting an occasional long home run was enough. It wasn’t.

Dwight, on the other hand, did become everything he could be as pitcher- briefly. His 1985 year was one of the great in baseball history: 24-4, 268-59 strikeouts to walks and a 1.53 ERA. I remember people were saying that it was Michael Jordan in basketball and Dwight Gooden in baseball. “Doc” was poised to be the face of the game for the team or the era.

But, while the Mets had an all-conquering regular season in 1986, something seemed wrong with their star pitcher. He went 17-6, 200-80 and 2.80. People said that you can’t expect a season like ’85 to be repeated. But if a hitter has a big year, people expect him to do it again. In his post season debut, against the Astros and Red Sox, he went 0-3, (in fact, his career post season record is 0-4). He missed the team’s victory parade because nobody could find him. He was arrested in December for fighting with Tampa police and tested positive for cocaine in spring training 1987. He entered drug rehab to avoid a suspension. From then on drugs and baseball would vie control of Gooden’s life and that’s never a fair contest. He remained a Met through 1994 but after his great 1985 season he averaged 13 wins a year for the Mets, including a 25-32 record his last three years. Then he began his journey around baseball, trying to extend his career through a series of comebacks with the Yankees, the Indians, the Astros, the Rays, etc. There were highlights, such as a 1996 no-hitter, but his overall record in those last five seasons was 49-37.

He was accused to rape in 1991, tested positive for cocaine again 1994 and was accused of having the clubhouse attendant supply ‘his’ urine samples, After his career ended in 2000, he was arrested for DUI in 2002, for driving without a license in 2003, DUI and resisting in 2005 and violating probation in 2006, which got him 7 months in prison. “He then accepted a position as a spring training instructor with the Mets, but backed down without offering an explanation; one of his tasks would have been to counsel young players about the dangers and temptations of playing in New York. On March 24, 2010, he was charged with driving under the influence of drugs, child endangerment and leaving the scene of an accident after an automobile accident at 9:00 a.m. in Franklin Lakes, NJ.” (Baseball reference.com.)

Injuries also played a role in Gooden’s decline and they certainly did in Strawberry’s. The Mets let him go after a highly productive 1990 season, (37 home runs, 108 RBIs), because they viewed him as a malcontent. He had a good 1991 for the Dodgers, hitting 28HR and driving in 99 runs. He played in 100 games only once the rest of his career: 101 for the 1998 Yankees. From 1992 through his last year, 1999, he played in a total of only 335 games of a possible 1,231 in those years. He tested positive for cocaine in 1995 and was suspended. At one point in his rehabilitation he was playing for the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League. To add to his problems he was diagnosed with colon cancer in 1998. In 2007, he was convicted of tax evasion. Since then, he’s become a born-again Christian and has turned his life around.

Gooden wound up with 194 wins and Strawberry with 335 home runs but both seemed destined for much better things than that. Neither will ever be in the Hall of Fame, yet they were among the greatest talents in this history of their positions.

Before
Darryl:

Dwight:

After
Darryl:

Dwight:

(He looks painfully thin every time I see him these days.)


Just as you can’t talk about Darryl Strawberry without talking about Dwight Gooden, you also can discuss Strawberry without talking about his childhood friend, ERIC DAVIS, who became a big star with the Cincinnati Reds. Bill James listed the similarities:
- They were both born in the spring of 1962
- They were both born and raised in Los Angeles.
- They were both childhood friends.
- They were both drafted in 1980.
- Both struck out a great deal.
- They did not hit for a good average but are 8th and 9th, (as of 2000, when he wrote this), among all listed outfielders in secondary average because of their walks, stolen bases and power. (Secondary average is “sum of extra bases gained on hits, walks, and stolen bases, less times caught stealing, depicted per at bat.” Wikipedia)
- They have both been injured and out of the lineup for long periods of time in many seasons but…
- …are both among the 50 best players at their positon, despite the career interruptions.
- They are both cancer survivors.

Pete Rose: Having Eric is like having an atomic bomb sitting next to you in the dugout. Ray Miller: “When he goes into the game, something is going to happen.” Washington Post: “…and then there is Eric Davis, who may be a better baseball player than any of them, when he is healthy.”

Davis exploded onto the scene in 1986 when he hit 27 homers and stole 80 bases for the reds. The next year he got off to a huge start and seemed like he might become the first ever 50-50 man, (home runs-steals), but tailed off in the second half of the season. Still, he .293 with 37 homers, 50 steals, 100RBIs and 120 runs scored. Unlike he pal Strawberry, he was a dynamic center fielder as well and was recognized as the best player in the National League and maybe in the game. That was his best season but he continued to be one of the most productive players in baseball through 1990, when his Reds shocked the baseball world with a sweep of the defending champion Oakland A’s.

But in the fourth game, he dove for a ball and lacerated a kidney. That and a knee injury required an operation in the off season. He only played 85 games in 1991 and all he could do is bat .235 with 11 homers. He was traded to the Dodgers, by now viewed as ‘damaged goods’. His reunion with Strawberry couldn’t overcome further injuries and he played in only 76 games, batting .228 with 5 home runs in 1992. The Dodgers traded him to the Tigers, for whom he could play in only 60 games in two years.

Eric was totally out of baseball in 1995. But he made a successful comeback back in his old stomping grounds in Cincinnati in 1996, playing 129 games and hitting .287 with 26 home runs and 23 steals. It was as if he’d never left. But he left again for the Baltimore Orioles in 1987. Amazingly, like his friend Strawberry, he was diagnosed with colon cancer after batting .304 with 8 homers in only 42 games. He beat the cancer and came back in 1998, having one of his best seasons, hitting .327 with 28 homers . But the injuries made a comeback and in his final three seasons he played for the Cardinals and Giants but only in 224 of a possible 486 games. He wound up with a .269 career average, 282 home runs and 349 steals. Paul O’Neill, a teammate on the Reds said of Eric Davis: "the best hitter, best runner, best outfielder, best everything" he ever saw.


Those Athletics teams were really something, winning 486 games and losing 324 in the regular season from 1988-1992, an even .600 winning percentage. They won four AL West titles, three pennants and the 1989 World Series. Their most famous players were the “bash brothers”, JOSE CANSECO and MARK MCGWIRE. Canseco came up late in the 1985 season and hit .302 with 5 home runs in in 29 games. In his first full season, 1986, he hit only .240 with 175 strike-outs but he did hit 33 home runs and drive in 117 runs. People were amazed at his physique. He was 6-4 and weighed 240 well-sculpted pounds. I remember Mickey Mantle saying he stood next to Canseco and felt small.

The next year even the mighty Canseco go put in the shadows as 6-5 250 Mark McGwire set a rookie record with 49 home runs He only struck out 131 times, managed to bat.289 and drive in 118 RBIs. I remember being impressed with his swing, which seems powerful but so easy and smooth. Jose basically duplicated his rookie year: .257-31-113 with 157 skos. He took the attention back from McGwire in 12988 by becoming baseball’s first 40-40 man with 42 home runs and 42 steals as the A’s won 104 games but got upset by the Dodgers in the World Series. Jose hit a career high .307, drove in 122 runs and scored 120. He was injured in 1989 and played only 65 games but the next two years he clobbered 37 and then 44 home runs. In 1992 he had 22 home runs in 97 games when he was suddenly traded to the Texas Rangers, (the trade came through while he was in the on-deck circle).

Off the field incidents may have contributed: two 1989 arrests for “reckless driving after allegedly leading an officer on a 15-mile chase” and “carrying a loaded semi-automatic pistol in his car” and a 1992 arrest for “for allegedly ramming his then-wife Esther's BMW with his Porsche”. (Wikipedia) Canseco: “"I guess the club figured it needed pitching or maybe the fans tired of Jose Canseco," he said. "Maybe I wore out my welcome, but I hope they miss me as a player and person.” (Los Angeles Times)

McGwire had hit 31, 33 and 39 home runs from 1988-90 but had an awful year in 1991, hitting only .201 with 22 home runs. ”Manager Tony La Russa sat him out the final game of the season to avoid allowing his batting average to dip below .200…. McGwire stated in an interview with Sports Illustrated that 1991 was the "worst year" of his life, with his on-field performance and marriage difficulties, and that he "didn't lift a weight" that entire season.” He came back strong the next year with 42 home runs and 104 RBIs. Then he started to have problems with his feet and only played 178 games the next three seasons. But he hit 57 home runs in those games, a sign of things to come.

We now know how Canseco and McGwire got so big and strong, but that’s a story for another decade.