Syracuse Football Recruiting - Lost the Core

[JimBoston]

I did an analysis of Syracuse football recruiting that I wanted to share. Historically, Syracuse heavily recruited New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. These were the Core recruiting states for Syracuse and the vast majority of Syracuse football greats have come from these states including:

CT: Floyd Little, Dwight Freeney, Craig Bingham, Terrence Wooden, Kyle McIntosh, Tebucky Jones

MA: Joe Morris, Rob Konrad, Diamond Ferri, Ryan LaCasse

PA: Marvin Harrison, Jim Nance, Justin Pugh, Gary Anderson, Curtis Brinkley, Kevin Mitchell, Dan Conley, John Flannery, Ryan Nassib

NJ: Jim Ringo, Billy Hunter, Donovan Darius, Kevin Johnson

NY: Will Allen, Daryl Johnston, Tim Green, Rob Burnett, Art Monk, John Mackey, Jim Brown, Don McPherson, Chandler Jones, Arthur Jones, Ernie Davis, Keith Bullock, Ted Gregory, Chris Gedney, Paul Frase

Unfortunately, Syracuse has not been a strong recruiter in these Core states over the past 15 years. They have lost the Core. According to 24/7 Sports player ratings, Syracuse has signed the following number of top players from the core states:

CT Top 10 since 2002: 4/150 (note: not every year had 10 recruits)
MA Top 6 since 2002: 2/90
PA Top 30 since 2002: 13/450
NJ Top 25 since 2002: 6/375
NY Top 15 since 2002: 40/225

In the past 15 recruiting classes, Syracuse has brought in 65 players that were among the top in the Core states! Or, Syracuse brought in 65/top 1,290 recruits in the Core recruiting states or 5% of the recruits! The 2016 recruiting class only contained 2 recruits from the Core, both from Pennsylvania.

Before people say the level of high school football has declined over the past 15+ years and Syracuse needs to look elsewhere for players, the top players from the Core states are going to top football programs. There are a large number of good football players in the Core states which are all within driving distance of Syracuse.

In my opinion, the key to turning around Syracuse football is to reconnect to the Core recruiting states, especially NY, NJ, and PA. This has to be Babers' key recruiting focus.

 

[Dcuse]

"In my opinion, the key to turning around Syracuse football is to reconnect to the Core recruiting states, especially NY, NJ, and PA. This has to be Babers' key recruiting focus."

I truly think it is going forward.

 

[Timonen]

The population shifts make the core that produced those players very different than today. Ease of travel has also changed recruiting dramatically. Replicating the past isn't gonna get anything done. Do what works now.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

As a professional statistician and amateur historian allow me to say:

Past performance is not an indicator of future success.

 

[Roger N]

As a professional statistician and amateur historian allow me to say:

Past performance is not an indicator of future success.

That is especially true in dating

 

[FAL]

PA: Marvin Harrison, Jim Nance, Justin Pugh, Gary Anderson, Curtis Brinkley, Kevin Mitchell, Dan Conley, John Flannery, Ryan Nassib

Please edit your post and add Qadry Ismail to your list. Thank you.

 

[TheCusian]

I did an analysis of Syracuse football recruiting that I wanted to share. Historically, Syracuse heavily recruited New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. These were the Core recruiting states for Syracuse and the vast majority of Syracuse football greats have come from these states including: CT: Floyd Little, Dwight Freeney, Craig Bingham, Terrence Wooden, Kyle McIntosh, Tebucky Jones MA: Joe Morris, Rob Konrad, Diamond Ferri, Ryan LaCasse PA: Marvin Harrison, Jim Nance, Justin Pugh, Gary Anderson, Curtis Brinkley, Kevin Mitchell, Dan Conley, John Flannery, Ryan Nassib NJ: Jim Ringo, Billy Hunter, Donovan Darius, Kevin Johnson NY: Will Allen, Daryl Johnston, Tim Green, Rob Burnett, Art Monk, John Mackey, Jim Brown, Don McPherson, Chandler Jones, Arthur Jones, Ernie Davis, Keith Bullock, Ted Gregory, Chris Gedney, Paul Frase Unfortunately, Syracuse has not been a strong recruiter in these Core states over the past 15 years. They have lost the Core. According to 24/7 Sports player ratings, Syracuse has signed the following number of top players from the core states: CT Top 10 since 2002: 4/150 (note: not every year had 10 recruits) MA Top 6 since 2002: 2/90 PA Top 30 since 2002: 13/450 NJ Top 25 since 2002: 6/375 NY Top 15 since 2002: 40/225 In the past 15 recruiting classes, Syracuse has brought in 65 players that were among the top in the Core states! Or, Syracuse brought in 65/top 1,290 recruits in the Core recruiting states or 5% of the recruits! The 2016 recruiting class only contained 2 recruits from the Core, both from Pennsylvania. Before people say the level of high school football has declined over the past 15+ years and Syracuse needs to look elsewhere for players, the top players from the Core states are going to top football programs. There are a large number of good football players in the Core states which are all within driving distance of Syracuse. In my opinion, the key to turning around Syracuse football is to reconnect to the Core recruiting states, especially NY, NJ, and PA. This has to be Babers' key recruiting focus.

Don't disagree totally. But I'm not sure you're being fair to Babers on 2016. He did recruit the Core (for Bowling Green). He went with kids he knew from programs he knew.

Given time, I think you'll see him recruit NY, NJ, PA harder and unlike some of his predecessors - more success.

The Jones brothers were in the last 15 years too.

 

[FAL]

Don't disagree totally. But I'm not sure you're being fair to Babers on 2016. He did recruit the Core (for Bowling Green). He went with kids he knew from programs he knew.

Given time, I think you'll see him recruit NY, NJ, PA harder and unlike some of his predecessors - more success.

The Jones brothers were in the last 15 years too.

Bromley as well.

 

[JimBoston]

End of the day, do you think it is a good sign that Syracuse is not attracting the top recruits in what has historically been the Core recruiting states? In the 2016 recruiting class, out of the top recruits in the Core, Syracuse had 2 but Michigan had 8, Ohio State 3, Duke 3, Stanford 3, UVa 3, Iowa 2, Michigan St 2, and Illinois 2. In addition, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, BC, Temple and UConn each had more top 2016 recruits from the Core than Syracuse.

 

[orangenirvana]

Don't disagree totally. But I'm not sure you're being fair to Babers on 2016. He did recruit the Core (for Bowling Green). He went with kids he knew from programs he knew.

Given time, I think you'll see him recruit NY, NJ, PA harder and unlike some of his predecessors - more success.

The Jones brothers were in the last 15 years too.

I don't think the issue has been that the Syracuse coaching staff's have refused to recruit the local areas hard.

It's that the local recruits aren't interesting in playing football for Syracuse.

The key is first getting them interested. Not just with shmoozing high school gym teachers but by putting an exciting product and consistent winner on the field. Then hopefully one day (as long as we're dreaming) every stud football recruit that comes up thinks SU Football is their #1 (only) choice.

 

[721Comstock]

As a professional statistician and amateur historian allow me to say:

Past performance is not an indicator of future success.

THIS.

It's also the old causation vs correlation issue.

The OP is effectively stating - Syracuse doesn't / didn't recruit the best Northeast talent, that's why they've sucked.

I'd posit it's much more like - Syracuse sucked, that's WHY they were unable to recruit the best Northeast talent.

If the best "local" players aren't really considering Syracuse because we've been mediocre or worse for pretty much THEIR ENTIRE LIFETIMES, then it's understandable why they may not want to come here.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

THIS.

It's also the old causation vs correlation issue.

Reminds me of this:

 

[721Comstock]

PS - lost our core?

Looks like SU Football could use some Seven Minute Abs.

 

[All4SU]

That is especially true in dating

Typically it is more a matter of diminishing returns.

 

[OrangePA]

The population shifts make the core that produced those players very different than today. Ease of travel has also changed recruiting dramatically. Replicating the past isn't gonna get anything done. Do what works now.

Good points.

 

[Ringostar57]

On a lighter note: Got to get Connie Francis to recruit the core for SU...she knows "where the boys are"

 

[OrangeJohn]

Can someone explain why you believe Babers can't successfully recruit Texas? Texas high school coaches know Dino Babers from his Baylor days. Is it because you believe Texas kids wouldn't be interested in playing for Syracuse? A P5 school with a good academic reputation, a great football tradition, with a beautiful campus in a place that actually has 4 seasons sounds pretty good in Texas.

 

[dollarbill44]

I don't think the issue has been that the Syracuse coaching staff's have refused to recruit the local areas hard.

It's that the local recruits aren't interesting in playing football for Syracuse.

This is dead-on balls accurate.

 

[TheCusian]

I don't think the issue has been that the Syracuse coaching staff's have refused to recruit the local areas hard. It's that the local recruits aren't interesting in playing football for Syracuse. The key is first getting them interested. Not just with shmoozing high school gym teachers but by putting an exciting product and consistent winner on the field. Then hopefully one day (as long as we're dreaming) every stud football recruit that comes up thinks SU Football is their #1 (only) choice.

Agree completely.

 

[JimBoston]

Can someone explain why you believe Babers can't successfully recruit Texas? Texas high school coaches know Dino Babers from his Baylor days. Is it because you believe Texas kids wouldn't be interested in playing for Syracuse? A P5 school with a good academic reputation, a great football tradition, with a beautiful campus in a place that actually has 4 seasons sounds pretty good in Texas.

Do you really think you can recruit the top players from Texas to play at Syracuse? Doubtful. You may be able to get a player or 2, but not much more. Of the top 100 players in Texas in the 2016 recruiting class, only 1, the #78 recruit went to an ACC team (Clemson).

Football players in the Northeast are not as developed as they are in other parts of the country. A school like Syracuse needs to recruit athletes and develop them into good football players. Marrone understood this. I think Babers needs to focus on developing Northeastern payers and mixing in players from Ohio, Florida, and the Middle Atlantic states. If he can grab a good player from Texas or the Midwest, great.

 

[SU94]

I did an analysis of Syracuse football recruiting that I wanted to share. Historically, Syracuse heavily recruited New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. These were the Core recruiting states for Syracuse and the vast majority of Syracuse football greats have come from these states including:

CT: Floyd Little, Dwight Freeney, Craig Bingham, Terrence Wooden, Kyle McIntosh, Tebucky Jones

MA: Joe Morris, Rob Konrad, Diamond Ferri, Ryan LaCasse

PA: Marvin Harrison, Jim Nance, Justin Pugh, Gary Anderson, Curtis Brinkley, Kevin Mitchell, Dan Conley, John Flannery, Ryan Nassib

NJ: Jim Ringo, Billy Hunter, Donovan Darius, Kevin Johnson

NY: Will Allen, Daryl Johnston, Tim Green, Rob Burnett, Art Monk, John Mackey, Jim Brown, Don McPherson, Chandler Jones, Arthur Jones, Ernie Davis, Keith Bullock, Ted Gregory, Chris Gedney, Paul Frase

Unfortunately, Syracuse has not been a strong recruiter in these Core states over the past 15 years. They have lost the Core. According to 24/7 Sports player ratings, Syracuse has signed the following number of top players from the core states:

CT Top 10 since 2002: 4/150 (note: not every year had 10 recruits)
MA Top 6 since 2002: 2/90
PA Top 30 since 2002: 13/450
NJ Top 25 since 2002: 6/375
NY Top 15 since 2002: 40/225

In the past 15 recruiting classes, Syracuse has brought in 65 players that were among the top in the Core states! Or, Syracuse brought in 65/top 1,290 recruits in the Core recruiting states or 5% of the recruits! The 2016 recruiting class only contained 2 recruits from the Core, both from Pennsylvania.

Before people say the level of high school football has declined over the past 15+ years and Syracuse needs to look elsewhere for players, the top players from the Core states are going to top football programs. There are a large number of good football players in the Core states which are all within driving distance of Syracuse.

In my opinion, the key to turning around Syracuse football is to reconnect to the Core recruiting states, especially NY, NJ, and PA. This has to be Babers' key recruiting focus.

I agree with much of this. Some of this is semantics. What is a recruiting class' core? What is its foundation?

With that said, how many schools can consistently win while recruiting a super majority (>60%) of its class consistently outside of a 4-6 hour radius from campus? I don't have the time right now to investigate, but I bet the schools that are can do this well (be successful = win big--9+ wins) are the usual suspects: Notre Dame (Golden Dome), Michigan (helmets, Big House), Ohio State (tradition, Urban), up north, perhaps Bama (Saban), Tennessee (weaker state for HS football), UNC (academics--haha/Nike), Duke (academics, private), Georgia Tech (academics, private) further south. Otherwise, most of the others are going to be getting their payloads from withing the 6-hour radius (I would think).

(I just did a quick scan of UNC's class. They had about 10 of 26 players from outside the 6-hour radius. That was a quick count and I'd have to investigate some of the towns for kids from Georgia for it it to be more accurate, but Atlanta is within the 6 hours there).

From my shoes, it is imperative that, over time, SU and D.Babers to learn to fish in (what will eventually be) familiar waters. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that when his offense invariably takes off and we are ascending/winning with some consistency, that 40-50% of our recruits come from NYS, New England, Pennsylvania and/or New Jersey. To me, this is the best path to sustainability. Let's remember, D.Babers will not be our HC forever (and this is why the transition from Coach Mac to Coach P was well executed and most of our HC hires since have involved nearly starting over with the recruiting contacts and territories).

But I also understand why D.Babers did not invest a lot of time toward this in his initial 2 months as SU's head coach. And it was smart to postpone that relationship building process.

 

[MartyCuse]

Reminds me of this:

Great episode!!!

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Could it possibly be the other way around? Instead of SU not doing well on the field because they are not getting the top recruits from the "Core", could it be that because SU has not done well on the field that the "Core" recruits are looking elsewhere?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

You can't compare it to the past without having the numbers from the past too. Most of those guys you listed as the types of guys we need wouldn't have fit under your parameters. What does that tell you? In addition recruiting used to be a regional thing. The choices for Northeast kids used to be Notre Dame, Penn State, or Syracuse. Now you have Rutgers and UConn, plus other schools outside the region getting kids.

 

[atcar]

FWIW and some NYS pride, I am pretty sure Rob Konrad was from NY; Lewiston area I believe.