Syracuse hoops preview -- storylines for '12-'13

[billsin01]

So here's one man's view of the storylines to watch for the upcoming hoops season.

Brandon Triche's Legacy
I figure simply typing that name will ensure 1,807 responses to this thread and initiate a petition for his admission to the Home for Emotionally Abused Syracuse Athletes (along with Nassib and Scoop). But, honestly, the point is this. I don't think there are many on this board (perhaps a few) who think BT is a bad player. I think the question is reasonable expectations. Either way, without getting too deep into the weeds on this topic, the better our most experienced player plays, the better this team will be. My hope is that he plays a bit more efficiently and consistently. If he does, that's a nice lift.

Are we as dangerous -- or perhaps even moreso? -- in transition this year?
One thing both the 09-10 and 11-12 Cuse teams did was absolutely punish opponents who turned the ball over. Rautins/Scoop/Wes/KJ/Waiters -- they all murdered opponents in the open floor and even in unsettled situations (Scoop in particular was extremely comfortable making decisions in the secondary break scenarios). Even the '10-11 team made up for a few offensive shortcomings by getting out in transition pretty effectively when the opportunity presented itself. I would assume this will continue this season but -- for all the criticism the seniors and occasionally Waiters took -- they all excelled in the open floor. I'd imagine MCW will excel here as well, but can Triche/Southerland/Fair/Cooney fill the roles of KJ/Waiters? Will be interesting to watch.

Will the pre-conference sked make us tougher or just hurt our potential seeding?
We have rolled through pre-BE skeds lately, erasing the memories of some less-than-stellar early season showings in previous years. This sked has some serious challenges -- @SD State (essentially), @Ark, vs. Detroit, Temple on a neutral court. Even LB State won 25 games last year. I doubt this team is going to be intimidated but they will be challenged and we'll find out a lot before Jan/Feb this season.

Welcome back, interior scoring
I love having a team that can score inside b/c I think it's a great place to go when you need a bucket. Coleman's arrival and the improvement of Xmas give us the potential for a couple solid interior offensive players. That's especially intriguing since Fair/JS/MCW and BT will command plenty of attention as well. I don't know that either big will average double-figures, but it would be ideal to be able to toss the ball inside or run some high/low in half-court sets this season. Adds another dimension that even last year's group -- as good as they were -- lacked.

Is Michael Carter Williams good ... or is he really, really, really good?
I personally love MCW and think he's going to be a complete stud, regardless of what happens in the NBA Draft in June. I like his unselfishness and creativity. If he's more of a scorer, all the better. But I admit, I'm basing this on a fairly small sample of minutes last season. Handling a much larger chunk of minutes and being responsible for running the offense and being the go-to guy is a huge leap. Is he ready? Is he that talented?

How does JB manage the Southerland/Fair combo?
If MCW doesn't simply explode onto the scene, there is a pretty plausible scenario in which the two best players on this team are forward combo above. The question is how are they deployed. Playing the 3/4 with two of the bigs (Keita/Xmas/DC) on the bench or some legit minutes for Southerland at the 2? I would bet on the former but perhaps the latter could happen from time to time. Regardless I'd expect to see Fair in the 30+ mpg range and Southerland not too far behind (25 mpg).

 

[br801]

Is Michael Carter Williams good ... or is he really, really, really good?
I personally love MCW and think he's going to be a complete stud, regardless of what happens in the NBA Draft in June. I like his unselfishness and creativity. If he's more of a scorer, all the better. But I admit, I'm basing this on a fairly small sample of minutes last season. Handling a much larger chunk of minutes and being responsible for running the offense and being the go-to guy is a huge leap. Is he ready? Is he that talented?

Very good post, billsin01 -- a lot to chew on there.

As for the above, I believe MCW will be up to task and have an excellent season simply because on this team he will not have to run the offense exclusively (BT is more than capable in that role) and he will not have to be the go-to guy on offense (BT, CJ, Southy, perhaps even DC2 at times, can also be "that guy"). I do think that early on, MCW will struggle at times with his consistency on both ends of the court and be subjected to some JB teaching moments. But that's to be expected as he adjusts to playing bigger minutes at this level.

 

[General20]

Good questions. I'd like to take a swing at them.

Brandon's Legacy . . . I have a feeling it will be the winningest player in Syracuse history. Not a bad record to hold.

Are we as dangerous in transition this year? Not by a long shot. Last year Waiter's released on every play and he was probably the second best player I have ever seen in transition behind Sherman Douglas. There is nobody on this year's team who will be able to replace him. We also had Fab. Because of him we didn't need to worry about being a great rebounding team. Even though we were very bad in rebounding margin we were actually pretty good when it came to +/- second chance points. A big reason for that was Fab swatting away any offensive rebounds we gave up. When you dont have to worry about rebounding you can send a guy out in transition every time, which is what we did. This year's team does not have a Dion (or a Joseph who filled that role the two years before and was exceptional and underrated at it). It also does not have Fab. Because there is no elite shot blocker we are going to have to do a better job on the boards, both MCW and Triche are good rebounding guards and I expect them to crash the boards far more often than they release in transition. Another reason its not so important to score in transition is, our half court offense is going to be much better than it was last year. Whoa, that turned into a long answer.

Pre-confrence schedule is going to help this team. If we lose more than once it may hurt our seeding too (but then again we may not lose more than once). But the Big East is no longer far and away the best conference, we needed to add a few good out of conference games and we did. I expect it to help our guys develop for when we need it.

Inside scoring . . . can't wait to see how Coleman develops as a guy who can score down low. He can hit free throws which is huge, now he needs to develop a few fakes and learn how to draw them more often.

Carter-Williams is really good. I have no doubts about his ability (and no worries about him as a ball handler). I do have some doubt about his ability to make it through a tough season without wearing down. His health at the end of this year may be the single determining factor in how deep a run we make in March.

Southerland and Fair . . . as they say, its not who starts the game but who finishes. I expect both Southerland and Fair to be on the court when it matters, and I expect they will log the most minutes at each respective forward position. I do not expect to see much if any of Southerland at shooting guard.

 

[billsin01]

Good questions. I'd like to take a swing at them ...

Brandon's Legacy . . . I have a feeling it will be the winningest player in Syracuse history. Not a bad record to hold.

Southerland and Fair . . . as they say, its not who starts the game but who finishes. I expect both Southerland and Fair to be on the court when it matters, and I expect they will log the most minutes at each respective forward position. I do not expect to see much if any of Southerland at shooting guard.

I cut your post since we both write long. Good answers, and I agree with most. I too would be really surprised to see Southerland at guard in anything more than absolute necessity or preparing for that necessity (aka when we're up 25 in the first half vs. Colgate).

There's no debating BT is one of the winningest players ever on the Hill and that's probably a good place to leave that debate.

The transition question is interesting. I don't think there's much doubt that we will have trouble duplicating quite the success we've had at times the past three years (particularly with Dion last year and with KJ/Rautins, etc. in 09-10). But I still think this team will play up-tempo a fair amount. I'll be interested to see how efficient and productive they are in those scenarios. To me the secondary break -- or slow break or unsettled situation -- is where good teams are the most difficult to defend. That long rebound that turns into a pull-up three to take the lead from 2 to 5 with 4 minutes left and gets the crowd going nuts is a dagger. But those are also the most difficult situations to manage -- takes a lot of creativity and maturity. Scoop, for all the criticism, was generally really good in those spots.