SWC75
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The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.
I’ve decided to simplify these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.
Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.
Undefeated teams:
ALABAMA 13-0 (527-153) ranked #1 / 261 points against ranked teams (PART)
Will play
WASHINGTON 12-1 (578-224) ranked #4 / 163 PART
Common opponents: Alabama beat Southern California 52-6. Washington lost to them 13-26
And
CLEMSON 12-1 (522-239) ranked #3 / 56 PART
Will play
OHIO STATE 11-1 (512-170) ranked #2 / 143 PART
Common Opponents: None
Comments: Alabama will be the heavy favorite but the SEC was weak this year and USC wasn’t what they later became. Washington could be a formidable opponent. But the Crimson tide have a history of making teams that thought they were pretty good look bad when they stand in the way of a national title. 21-0 over LSU in 2011, Notre Dame 42-14 in 2012, Michigan State 38-0 in 2015. It could happen again.
Clemson, despite their blowout in our game, has bene blade-running all year. It finally caught up with them vs. Pittsburgh and they barely held on against Virginia Tech. Urban Meyer’s Ohio State teams also have a history of beating teams that stood in the way of a title badly: 59-0 over Wisconsin, 62-3 over Nebraska a couple of weeks back. They were lucky to beat Michigan and some people have questions a non-conference champion being in the playoffs. I don’t think they will let Clemson stand in their way, although nobody has more rabbits in his hat than DeShaun Watson.
Let’s take a look at some other possibilities. Some people were upset that the playoff had been expanded from two teams to four. Some have suggest it be expanded further to 8 or 16. What would those tournaments look like?
A two team playoff would be between Alabama (13-0) and Clemson (12-1), leaving out the following teams that had as good a record: Ohio State (11-1), Washington (12-1) and Western Michigan (13-0).
The four team playoff leaves out only Western Michigan, a team most people feel doesn’t belong in it because they didn’t play the sort of schedule the other contenders did.
I assume an eight team playoff would include automatic bids for the power conference champions. It would thus look like this:
Alabama 13-0 vs. Wisconsin 10-3
Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2
Ohio State 11-1 vs. Michigan 10-2 (maybe they will make that first down this time)
Washington 12-1 vs. Penn State 11-2
Teams with similar records who are left out: Southern California 9-3, Colorado 10-3, Florida State 9-3, Oklahoma State 9-3, Louisville 9-3, Western Michigan 13-0, West Virginia 10-2, Stanford 9-3, Temple 10-3, Navy 9-3, Nebraska 9-3, South Florida 10-2, San Diego State 10-3, Tulsa 9-3, Houston 9-3, Western Kentucky 10-3, Old Dominion 9-3, Toledo 9-3, Air Force 9-3, Appalachian State 9-3, Troy 9-3
I assume a 16 team playoff would include automatic bids for every FBS conference champion, (Appalachian State and Arkansas State tired for the Sun Belt title but App State had the better over-all record so I assume they would be chosen):
Alabama 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 9-3
Clemson 12-1 vs. Western Kentucky 10-3
Ohio State 11-1 vs. San Diego State 10-3
Washington 12-1 vs. Temple 10-3
Penn State 11-2 vs. Western Michigan 13-0
Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3
Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Colorado 10-3
Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Southern California 9-3
Left out: Oklahoma State 9-3, Louisville 9-3, West Virginia 10-2, Stanford 9-3, Navy 9-3, Nebraska 9-3, South Florida 10-2, Tulsa 9-3, State 9-3, Troy 9-3
I’ll let each reader decide which arrangement they prefer. For myself I think the 8 team playoff is the best solution. I think any power conference champions and any power conference team with only one loss should be in the tournament but that it shouldn’t be cluttered with teams that nobody thinks of as national championship contenders. The eight team field best satisfied those requirements.
I’ve decided to simplify these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.
Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.
Undefeated teams:
ALABAMA 13-0 (527-153) ranked #1 / 261 points against ranked teams (PART)
Will play
WASHINGTON 12-1 (578-224) ranked #4 / 163 PART
Common opponents: Alabama beat Southern California 52-6. Washington lost to them 13-26
And
CLEMSON 12-1 (522-239) ranked #3 / 56 PART
Will play
OHIO STATE 11-1 (512-170) ranked #2 / 143 PART
Common Opponents: None
Comments: Alabama will be the heavy favorite but the SEC was weak this year and USC wasn’t what they later became. Washington could be a formidable opponent. But the Crimson tide have a history of making teams that thought they were pretty good look bad when they stand in the way of a national title. 21-0 over LSU in 2011, Notre Dame 42-14 in 2012, Michigan State 38-0 in 2015. It could happen again.
Clemson, despite their blowout in our game, has bene blade-running all year. It finally caught up with them vs. Pittsburgh and they barely held on against Virginia Tech. Urban Meyer’s Ohio State teams also have a history of beating teams that stood in the way of a title badly: 59-0 over Wisconsin, 62-3 over Nebraska a couple of weeks back. They were lucky to beat Michigan and some people have questions a non-conference champion being in the playoffs. I don’t think they will let Clemson stand in their way, although nobody has more rabbits in his hat than DeShaun Watson.
Let’s take a look at some other possibilities. Some people were upset that the playoff had been expanded from two teams to four. Some have suggest it be expanded further to 8 or 16. What would those tournaments look like?
A two team playoff would be between Alabama (13-0) and Clemson (12-1), leaving out the following teams that had as good a record: Ohio State (11-1), Washington (12-1) and Western Michigan (13-0).
The four team playoff leaves out only Western Michigan, a team most people feel doesn’t belong in it because they didn’t play the sort of schedule the other contenders did.
I assume an eight team playoff would include automatic bids for the power conference champions. It would thus look like this:
Alabama 13-0 vs. Wisconsin 10-3
Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2
Ohio State 11-1 vs. Michigan 10-2 (maybe they will make that first down this time)
Washington 12-1 vs. Penn State 11-2
Teams with similar records who are left out: Southern California 9-3, Colorado 10-3, Florida State 9-3, Oklahoma State 9-3, Louisville 9-3, Western Michigan 13-0, West Virginia 10-2, Stanford 9-3, Temple 10-3, Navy 9-3, Nebraska 9-3, South Florida 10-2, San Diego State 10-3, Tulsa 9-3, Houston 9-3, Western Kentucky 10-3, Old Dominion 9-3, Toledo 9-3, Air Force 9-3, Appalachian State 9-3, Troy 9-3
I assume a 16 team playoff would include automatic bids for every FBS conference champion, (Appalachian State and Arkansas State tired for the Sun Belt title but App State had the better over-all record so I assume they would be chosen):
Alabama 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 9-3
Clemson 12-1 vs. Western Kentucky 10-3
Ohio State 11-1 vs. San Diego State 10-3
Washington 12-1 vs. Temple 10-3
Penn State 11-2 vs. Western Michigan 13-0
Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3
Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Colorado 10-3
Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Southern California 9-3
Left out: Oklahoma State 9-3, Louisville 9-3, West Virginia 10-2, Stanford 9-3, Navy 9-3, Nebraska 9-3, South Florida 10-2, Tulsa 9-3, State 9-3, Troy 9-3
I’ll let each reader decide which arrangement they prefer. For myself I think the 8 team playoff is the best solution. I think any power conference champions and any power conference team with only one loss should be in the tournament but that it shouldn’t be cluttered with teams that nobody thinks of as national championship contenders. The eight team field best satisfied those requirements.