The Contenders - Week 11

[SWC75]

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Update: I’ve decided that beginning November, (the month they’ll remember, per Coach Mac), that I would supply the same sort of specifics I’ve presented in past years for each one: the full schedule, the record, the point differential, the various rankings and appoints accumulated against ranked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post.) The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA 10-0 (412-122) ranked #1 / 181 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Chattanooga 8-2 (361-169) ranked #8 in FCS
11/26 Auburn 7-3 (320-157) ranked #15 / 93 points vs. ranked teams.
They most likely would play Florida (6-2, 216-113, ranked #18/ 2 points against ranked teams) in the conference title game.

Comments: Alabama will be favored to run the table. Florida hasn’t really beaten anybody good yet. The real threat is their old pals at Auburn, who seemed to be coming on strong again until they lost to Georgia.


One loss teams:

CLEMSON 9-1 (389-184) ranked #4 / 46 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 at Wake Forest 6-4 (204-210) 1 point vs. ranked teams
11/26 South Carolina 5-5 (180-211) 17 points vs. ranked teams
They most likely would play Virginia Tech (7-3, 334-212 40 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game.

LOUISVILLE 9-1 (496-203) ranked #3 / 82 points vs. ranked teams
11/17 at Houston 8-2 (376-213) 33 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Kentucky 5-5 (282-323)
They most likely would play Virginia Tech (7-3, 334-212), 40 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game but they are lost to Clemson in their own division so they still need help to get to that game.

MICHIGAN 9-1 (445-110) ranked #3 / 25 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Indiana 5-5 (275-284) 27 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 at Ohio State 9-1 (465-127) ranked #5 / 117 points vs. ranked teams
At this point Wisconsin (8-2, 262-127),ranked #7 122 points against ranked teams) would be the most likely team to play them in the Big Ten title game – Nebraska (8-2, 283-226), ranked #19, 16 points against ranked teams), has already lost to Wisconsin.

OHIO STATE 9-1 (465-127) ranked #2 / 117 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 at Michigan State 3-7 (261-271) 30 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Michigan 9-1 (445-110) ranked #3 / 25 points vs. ranked teams
If they win these games it still would wrap up a spot in the Big Ten title game because Penn State beat them and both teams have a 6-1 conference record.

WASHINGTON 9-1(448-179) ranked #6 / 73 points vs. ranked teams
11/19 Arizona State 5-5 (347-378) 0 points vs. ranked teams
11/25 at Washington State 8-2 (443-243) ranked #20 / 37 points vs. ranked teams
Right now they would be facing Colorado (8-2, 352-179, ranked #10 / 4 points vs. ranked teams) in the conference title game.

WEST VIRGINIA 8-1 (290-185) ranked #9
11/19 Oklahoma 8-2 (442-308) ranked #8 / 14 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 Iowa State 2-8 (247-317) 12 points vs. ranked teams
12/3 Baylor 6-3 (342-245)
The Big 12 has no title game.

Power Five 2 Loss teams:
Colorado 8-2 (352-179) ranked #10 / 4 points against ranked teams
Florida 7-2 (236-120) ranked #18 / 2 points against ranked teams
Nebraska 8-2 (283-226) ranked #17 / 16 points against ranked teams
Oklahoma 8-2 (442-308) ranked #8 / 14 points against ranked teams
Oklahoma State 8-2 (413-293) ranked #11/ 55 points against ranked teams
Penn State 8-2 (355-261) ranked #8 / 27 points against ranked teams
Utah 8-2 (312-230) ranked #11 / 15 points against ranked teams
Washington State 8-2 (443-243) ranked #20 / 37 points against ranked teams
Wisconsin 8-2 (262-127) ranked #6 / 122 points against ranked teams

Comment: Going into last week we had a perfect situation for a four team playoff: four undefeated power conference teams. But nature abhors perfection and three of them went down, giving way to a week of scenarios for filling the other three positons. Four one loss teams could conceivably win out: Clemson, Louisville, Washington and West Virginia. Ohio State and Michigan will play each other, thus possibility giving us another one loss team, (and if it’s Ohio State they might not play in the Big Ten title game). There’s even the possibility that a two loss team, (probably Penn State or Wisconsin) could get in if they win their conference title. It’s the college football equivalent of a “smoothie”.

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. (For my estimation of who might have played in previous “Pesci Bowls” – see below). I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-Power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list. The rankings are the highest ranking in any of the major polls. ‘Points’ against ranked teams are from my week “Against Ranked Teams” post.

BOISE STATE 9-1 (365-220) ranked 20th
11/18 UNLV 4-6 (344-354)
11/25 at Air Force 7-3 (344-262)
Having lost to Wyoming, they are second in their division and wouldn’t have to play in the conference title game.

WESTERN MICHIGAN 10-0 (444-195) ranked 14th
11/19 Buffalo 2-8 (179-323)
11/25 Toledo 8-2 (394-229)
Barring upsets they will play Ohio U. (7-4, 313-257, 2 points against ranked teams) in the MAC title game.

SAN DIEGO STATE 9-1 (368-152)
11/19 at Wyoming 7-3 (389-337) 15 points against ranked teams
11/26 Colorado State 5-5 (297-272) 6 points against ranked teams
If they beat Wyoming but the Cowboys win the rest of their games, there will be a rematch in the Mountain West title game.

TROY 8-1 (343-194) ranked 25th / 18 points against ranked teams
11/17 Arkansas State 5-4 (234-225)
11/26 at Texas State 2-7 (192-367)
12/3 at Georgia Southern 4-6 (267-264)
The Sun Belt conference has no title game.

2-loss teams:
Houston 8-2 (376-213) 33 points against ranked teams.
Navy 7-2 (318-269) 26 points against ranked teams.
South Florida 8-2 (440-314) 11 points against ranked teams
Toledo 8-2 (394-229)

Comments: I think Western Michigan will run the table, (although Toledo may have something to say about that), and be in the PESCI bowl. Their opponent will likely be the Mountain West winner although if the one loss teams all get a second loss, the other two loss teams obviously come into play – and all of them would be strong contenders..

 

[SWC75]

THE TY-DEE BOWL

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)


There are no winless teams, fortunately.

The one win teams:

FRESNO STATE 1-9 (185-341)
11/19 Hawaii 4-7 (284-434)
11/26 San Jose State 3-7 (239-361)

KANSAS 1-9 (200-393)
11/19 Texas 5-5 (353-323) 45 points vs. ranked teams
11/26 at Kansas State 5-4 (280-216) 7 points vs. ranked teams


Two win teams:
Arizona 2-8 (224-383) 10 points vs. ranked teams
Bowling Green 2-8 (229-434)
Buffalo 2-8 (179-323)
Georgia State 2-8 (197-258) 11 points vs. ranked teams
Iowa State 2-8 (247-317) 12 points against ranked teams
Massachusetts 2-8 (231-329)
Oregon State 2-8 (238-325)
Rice 2-8 (242-383)
Rutgers 2-8 (175-380)
Texas State 2-7 (192-367)
Virginia 2-8 (243-322) 16 points against ranked teams

Comments: Fresno continues to disappoint but they still have two good shots at getting that second win. Kansas seems a cinch for 1-11: their only win is against Rhode Island in their opener. Last year they were 0-12. They’ve lost 23 straight FBS games. You can’t get more deserving of the Ty-Dee Bowl than that. The two win team with the worst point differential is currently a tie between Dino Baber’s old team, Bowling Green and our old friends, Rutgers, both of whom are -205. Fresno is only -156 so if they can get that second win, that should be enough to keep them out of it.