The Contenders - week 7

[SWC75]

For the College Football Playoff:

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA is 7-0 and will be playing:
Texas A&M (6-0) on 10/22 at home
They could play Florida (5-1) in the conference title game.

OHIO STATE is 6-0 and will be playing:
Nebraska (6-0) on 11/5 at home
Michigan (6-0) on 11/26
Nebraska is the only team they could face in the Big ten title game that might still be on this list.

CLEMSON is 7-0 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way, (everybody in the Coastal Division has 2 losses)

MICHIGAN is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-0) on 11/26
Again, Nebraska is the only team they might play in the conference title game with less than 2 losses.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Utah (6-1) on 10/29
The Utes are the only team in the Pac 12 South with elss than 2 losses.

TEXAS A&M is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Alabama (7-0) on 10/22
The winner could play Florida (5-1) in the SEC title game.

NEBRASKA is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-0) on 11/5
They could have a rematch with the Buckeyes or a game with Michigan (6-0) in the Big Ten title game.

BAYLOR is 6-0 and will be playing:
West Virginia (5-0) on 12/3 at home
The Big 12 has no title game.

BOISE STATE is 6-0 and will not be playing anyone on this list the rest of the way, although they could play San Diego State (5-1) in the Mountain West title game.

WEST VIRGINIA is 5-0 and will be playing:
At Baylor (6-0) on 12/3
See above

Comments: Ohio State will play the most contenders the rest of the way, which is a double-edged sword: They have the most challenges and the best chance to prove how good they are. But they are already ranked #2 and really don’t have to prove themselves. Their annual confrontation with Michigan will be huge. Baylor and West Virginia may wind up playing for the Big 12 title but they have the opposite problem: they both may have a hard time convincing the committee that they’ve done enough to be in the playoff if there are other teams from power five conferences with similar records. They are in a conference with no title game, which lies on the same double-edged sword: they might need one to improve their resume. Alabama, Clemson and Washington are all in good positon to run the table. So is Boise State but it won’t matter.


One loss teams:

LOUISVILLE is 5-1 and will be playing:
At Houston (6-1) 11/17

HOUSTON is 6-1 and will be playing:
Louisville (5-1) on 11/17 at home
At Memphis (5-1) on 11/25

FLORIDA is 5-1 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way.

UTAH is 6-1 and will be playing:
Washington (6-0) on 10/29 at home

Comment: There probably will be 1-2 one loss teams in the playoff but I think they are likely to be currently undefeated teams, with the possible exception of Louisville. These one-loss teams face some serious challenges.

 

[SWC75]

For the Pesci Bowl:

Besides keeping track of the current contenders for the college football play, for the last couple of years I have been imagining something I call the Pesci Bowl- a bowl game between the two best teams who were unable to make the playoff besides excellent records because their schedules were not considered “big time”. In current parlance, that would mean teams that aren’t in the “Power Five” conferences. I’ve named the fictional event after actor Joe Pesci, a vertically challenged but feisty actor we’ve seen in many films, especially “Goodfellas” and “Casino”.

I’ve listed the non-power Five teams with no or one loss with the teams they have left to play on their schedules that are also on the list.

BOISE STATE is 6-0 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way

WESTERN MICHIGAN is 7-0 and will be playing:
Toledo (5-1) on 11/25 at home

HOUSTON is 6-1 and will be playing:
(They also play Louisville on 11/17 at home)
At Memphis (5-1) on 11/25

SOUTH FLORIDA is 6-1 and will be playing:
Navy (4-1) on 10/28 at home
At Memphis (5-1) on 11/12

NAVY is 4-1 and will be playing:
Memphis (5-1) on 10/22 at home
At South Florida (6-1) on 10/28

MEMPHIS is 5-1 and will be playing:
At Navy (4-1) on 10/22
South Florida (6-1) on 11/12 at home
Houston (6-1) on 11/25 at home

TOLEDO is 5-1 and will be playing:
At Western Michigan (7-0) on 11/25

SAN DIEGO STATE is 5-1 and will be playing no one on this list.

TROY is 5-1 and will be playing no one on this list.

Comments: I think Boise State, Houston, Navy and South Florida are the best teams on this list, although Western Michigan could run the table and if they did I might have to put them in over a one loss team. Boise State has the easiest road the rest of the way although the flyboys will be primed for an upset. Memphis is the least likely teams to remain on this list: they have three big games left and all three of Tulsa’s are on the road.

 

[SWC75]

For the Ty-Dee Bowl:

For the last few years I’ve had a fantasy about having the two worst teams in the country play in a bowl game to see who is the worst of the worst, (among major teams). It’s kind of mean-spirted and they might say no – but it could be quite a hard fought and entertaining game and maybe the schools might need the money – and have a desire to prove that they aren’t the worst by beating a team they might actually be able to beat. Here are all the FBS teams that are currently winless and those who currently have one loss and their upcoming games against each other. (I call it the Ty-Dee Bowl after the toilet cleaning product.)

The winless team:

RICE is 0-6 and will be playing:
(They will play FCS Prairie View A&M on 10/22)
Florida Atlantic (1-6) on 11/5 at home
Texas-El Paso (1-5) on 11/19 at home

The one win teams:

MIAMI UNIVERSITY (of Ohio) is 1-6 and they will be playing:
At Bowling Green (1-6) on 10/22

IOWA STATE is 1-6 and they will be playing:
At Kansas (1-5) on 11/12

TEXAS- EL PASO is 1-5 and they will be playing:
(They will play FCS Houston Baptist on 11/5)
At Florida Atlantic (1-6) on 11/12
At Rice (0-6) on 11/19

MASSACHUSETTS is 1-6 and they will be playing:
(They will play FCS Wagner on 10/29)

BOWLING GREEN is 1-6 and they will be playing:
Miami University (1-6) on 10/22 at home
At Northern Illinois (1-6) on 11/1
Buffalo (1-5) on 11/25 at home

NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 1-6 and they will be playing:
Buffalo (1-5) on 10/22 at home
Bowling Green (1-6) on 11/1 at home

FRESNO STATE is 1-5 and they will be playing no one on this list.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 1-6 and will be playing:
At Rice (0-6) on 11/5
Texas El Paso (1-5) on 11/12 at home

BUFFALO is 1-5 and will be playing:
At Northern Illinois (1-6) on 10/22
Miami University (1-6) on 11/12 at home
At Bowling Green (1-6) on 11/25

GEORGIA STATE is 1-5 and will be playing:
(They will be playing FCS Tennessee-Martin on 10/22)

Comments: The MAC has a lot of lousy teams this year, (which could help Western Michigan make the Pesci Bowl). Those teams will be playing each and could knock themselves out of the Ty-Dee Bowl, (which I’m sure they wouldn’t mind). UMASS got booted from the MAC and should probably return to FCS, (which a lot of these teams should probably think about, too). Iowa State isn’t that bad and should handle Kansas, who would still be better than most of the teams on this list.

 

[longtimefan]

For the College Football Playoff:

The last few years at this time in the college football season I’ve begun making weekly posts called “The Undefeated”, in which I gave detailed information about the remaining undefeated teams and they tried to stay in contention for first the BCS championships game and now the playoffs. Toward the end of the season, if it became apparent that we were going to have a one loss team in the playoff, I included information about them. The information was their record, their ranking, their points against ranked teams, (see that post), the remaining schedule, including the same information for each team.

I’ve decided to simply these posts by focusing on upcoming games against the teams most likely to knock them off and be contenders themselves. I won’t be providing all the stats about each team: just who they play and when that might be a big threat. I’m going to call it “The Contenders” instead of “The Undefeated”. I’m going to list each undefeated team ranked in the AP, (writer’s) top 25 and then each one loss team from any of the ‘power five’ conferences, (the ACC, The SEC, the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12)or that continues to be ranked. There is virtually a 100% chance that all four playoff teams will come from this group. We’ve had one two loss team play for the title since the BCS started, (LSU 2007) and they are the only two loss national champion we’ve ever had. Then I’ll list the teams also on that list that they will be playing, when and where. That way we’ll be able to look forward to the big match-ups to come on the same page.

Undefeated teams:

ALABAMA is 7-0 and will be playing:
Texas A&M (6-0) on 10/22 at home
They could play Florida (5-1) in the conference title game.

OHIO STATE is 6-0 and will be playing:
Nebraska (6-0) on 11/5 at home
Michigan (6-0) on 11/26
Nebraska is the only team they could face in the Big ten title game that might still be on this list.

CLEMSON is 7-0 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way, (everybody in the Coastal Division has 2 losses)

MICHIGAN is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-0) on 11/26
Again, Nebraska is the only team they might play in the conference title game with less than 2 losses.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Utah (6-1) on 10/29
The Utes are the only team in the Pac 12 South with elss than 2 losses.

TEXAS A&M is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Alabama (7-0) on 10/22
The winner could play Florida (5-1) in the SEC title game.

NEBRASKA is 6-0 and will be playing:
At Ohio State (6-0) on 11/5
They could have a rematch with the Buckeyes or a game with Michigan (6-0) in the Big Ten title game.

BAYLOR is 6-0 and will be playing:
West Virginia (5-0) on 12/3 at home
The Big 12 has no title game.

BOISE STATE is 6-0 and will not be playing anyone on this list the rest of the way, although they could play San Diego State (5-1) in the Mountain West title game.

WEST VIRGINIA is 5-0 and will be playing:
At Baylor (6-0) on 12/3
See above

Comments: Ohio State will play the most contenders the rest of the way, which is a double-edged sword: They have the most challenges and the best chance to prove how good they are. But they are already ranked #2 and really don’t have to prove themselves. Their annual confrontation with Michigan will be huge. Baylor and West Virginia may wind up playing for the Big 12 title but they have the opposite problem: they both may have a hard time convincing the committee that they’ve done enough to be in the playoff if there are other teams from power five conferences with similar records. They are in a conference with no title game, which lies on the same double-edged sword: they might need one to improve their resume. Alabama, Clemson and Washington are all in good positon to run the table. So is Boise State but it won’t matter.


One loss teams:

LOUISVILLE is 5-1 and will be playing:
At Houston (6-1) 11/17

HOUSTON is 6-1 and will be playing:
Louisville (5-1) on 11/17 at home And, Tennes
At Memphis (5-1) on 11/25

FLORIDA is 5-1 and will be playing no one on this list the rest of the way.

UTAH is 6-1 and will be playing:
Washington (6-0) on 10/29 at home

Comment: There probably will be 1-2 one loss teams in the playoff but I think they are likely to be currently undefeated teams, with the possible exception of Louisville. These one-loss teams face some serious challenges. Florida still has to figure out if and when they might be playing LSU. They have already lost to Tennessee so it will be hard for them to get to the SEC title game.

Re: your comments on 1-loss teams--Florida has re-scheduled the LSU game (for Nov 19, I think) at LSU. And Tennessee now has 2 SEC losses, so if Florida wins out, they are in the league championship game.

 

[skurey]

Think you can shorten your post to "The Contenders - Alabama"