The five factors: College football's most important stats

[Crusty]

Here's a little diversion from all the turmoil of the program. It's data are similar to those presented in a video clip I saw by Brain Billick.
Link

This is from 2013 college football game data. It's very, very similar from year to year.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

This explains (if you didn't know already) that yards gained alone doesn't mean much.

 

[upperdeck]

I wonder how often the TO battle is won because of a team trying to get back into a game they are already losing?

 

[72Cuse]

Here's a little diversion from all the turmoil of the program. It's data are similar to those presented in a video clip I saw by Brain Billick.
Link

This is from 2013 college football game data. It's very, very similar from year to year.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

This explains (if you didn't know already) that yards gained alone doesn't mean much.

Thanks. Sounds like we need a Bill James for college football!

 

[Millhouse]

Here's a little diversion from all the turmoil of the program. It's data are similar to those presented in a video clip I saw by Brain Billick. Link This is from 2013 college football game data. It's very, very similar from year to year. [*]If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time. [*]If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time. [*]If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time. [*]If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time. [*]If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time. This explains (if you didn't know already) that yards gained alone doesn't mean much.

How do you do if you win the yards battle?

 

[007]

How do you do if you win the yards battle?

You lose at home to Maryland by 14?

 

[Millhouse]

You lose at home to Maryland by 14?

Sample of one

 

[javadoc]

Sample of one

We've got a pretty good sample of one season on our hands. +4 TO against ND, right?

 

[Crusty]

We've got a pretty good sample of one season on our hands. +4 TO against ND, right?

Yes, but we got killed on the other 4 factors! Must take them all together, I think.

 

[Finwad32]

Bump, given the discussion in day 5 of Spring Practice.

 

[Millhouse]

I looked up ACC games from 2014 (big hassle to deal with more data)

If you win the yards per play battle, you win 84% of the time

teams that are good at gaining yards and stopping yards usually win