SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1-win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.
After Week 13
Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 11-1 (429-215) ranked 8/8/8 ART +79
Sat 12/2 vs. GEORGIA 12-0 (475-189) +155 in the SEC title game
The Tide seems to be rolling, although they had to pull the Auburn game out of the fire. We all know what happened two years ago, when they became the last team to beat the Bulldogs, who are going for their 30th win in a row.
FLORIDA STATE 12-0 (465-201) ranked: 4/4/5 ART: +70
Sat 12/2 vs. Louisville 10-2 (396-240) 9/9/10 ART +58 in the ACC title game
A fascinating issue that comes up from time to time in sports is: when issuing invitations (or seeds) to a championship tournament, do you reward a team for what they’ve accomplished or for what they are now. This can involve the maturation of a team that had early problems or it can involve teams, like Florida State, who have lost a key player. If the Seminoles can beat Louisville after surviving the rivalry game with Florida with their back-up quarterback, (imagine having a good back-up QB?), that may put that concern to rest.
GEORGIA 12-0 (475-189) ranked: 1/1/1 ART +155
Sat 12/2 vs. Alabama 11-1 (429-215) 8/8/8 ART +79 in the SEC title game
Can they win three in a row? First they have to get there. Here comes the SEC title game against Alabama, who beat them in this game two years ago. But this is a school that could get in with one loss, like the Tide used to.
MICHIGAN 12-0 (451-123) ranked: 2/2/2 ART: +55
Sat 12/2 vs. Iowa 10-2 (216-146) ART: ZERO in the Big 10 title game
The Wolverines have passed the tests that finally came in beating Penn State and Ohio State. The Big Ten title game will be against Iowa, which should not be a problem. But if the Hawkeyes can keep the gam low scoring and close, anything could happen.
OHIO STATE 11-1 (394-132) ranked: 6/6/6 ART: +64
The Buckeyes have an advantage of sorts: they can’t lose this week. They can sit back and see who does.
OREGON 11-1 (543-191) ranked: 5/5/5 +154
Sat 12/2 vs. WASHINGTON 12-0 (456-276) ART: +69 in the Pac12 title game
The Ducks are looking really good. I could see a Georgia-Oregon game being a heck of a battle. But they have to beat the only team that beat them first.
TEXAS 11-1 (421-207) ranked: 7/7/7 ART: +73
Sat 12/2 vs. Oklahoma State 9-3 (362-328) +30 in Big 12 title game
The Longhorns have sort of lurked in the background but Alabama’s only loss is to them.
WASHINGTON 12-0 (456-276) ranked: 3/3/3 ART: +69
Sat 12/1 vs. OREGON 11-1 (543-191) ART +154 In the Pac 12 title game.
The challenges keep coming but the Huskies remain undefeated. The Huskies have beaten four ranked teams - by a combined 22 points. Winning close games is a useful skill in a championship tournament. But it could be aa sign of vulnerability, as well.
We’ve still got 4 undefeated power five teams. Can they all stay that way? I’ve added in the one-loss teams in case they can’t. This might have been a good time to go to 12 teams. (I still don't understand why it isn't 8, which seems perfect.)
Pesci Bowl
JAMES MADISON 11-1 (422-222) ranked 24/25/UR
Appalachian State 8-4 (429-320) finished second in the Sun Belt’s Eastern Division, (but did beat the Dukes) and will be playing in the conference title game because of that rule that JMU has to wait to participate in FBS post season games. Troy 9-2 (321-183) won the Western Division.
LIBERTY 12-0 (481-260) ranked 20/22/24
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State 10-3 (367-256) in the Conference USA title game
Our old pals from Liberty made it 11-0 but the Aggies, who just embarrassed Auburn, await in the conference title game. Still, a 12-1 Liberty team would have a good shot.
TOLEDO 11-1 (423-245) 23/UR/UR
Sat 12/2 Miami University 10-2 (327-196) in the MAC title game
How silly of me. In previous posts in this series, I forgot about the Rockets, (whose coach might wind up being ours).
TULANE 11-1 (306-204) ranked 17/18/22 ART -11
Sat 12/2 Southern Methodist (502-212) ART -31 in the AAC title game
It’s fund to see Tulane, who actually has an interesting football history having a good run. But out soon-to-be conference brethren, the Mustangs, will prove to be a hard horse to break.
Ty-D Bowl
AKRON 2-10 (195-336)
EAST CAROLINA 2-10 (208-265) ART -4
KENT STATE 1-11 (176-415)
LOUISIANA-MONROE 2-10 (208-419) ART -19
NEVADA-RENO 2-10 (208-401)
VANDERBILT 2-10 (274-434) (Actually, there was a Power Five team with fewer than three wins.)
The 2023 Ty-D-Bowl will be between KENT STATE 1-11 (176-415) and LOUISIANA-MONROE 2-10 (208-419). The Warhawks were chosen over the other two win teams based on point differential. It’s the third Ty-D-Bowl for each.
After Week 13
Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 11-1 (429-215) ranked 8/8/8 ART +79
Sat 12/2 vs. GEORGIA 12-0 (475-189) +155 in the SEC title game
The Tide seems to be rolling, although they had to pull the Auburn game out of the fire. We all know what happened two years ago, when they became the last team to beat the Bulldogs, who are going for their 30th win in a row.
FLORIDA STATE 12-0 (465-201) ranked: 4/4/5 ART: +70
Sat 12/2 vs. Louisville 10-2 (396-240) 9/9/10 ART +58 in the ACC title game
A fascinating issue that comes up from time to time in sports is: when issuing invitations (or seeds) to a championship tournament, do you reward a team for what they’ve accomplished or for what they are now. This can involve the maturation of a team that had early problems or it can involve teams, like Florida State, who have lost a key player. If the Seminoles can beat Louisville after surviving the rivalry game with Florida with their back-up quarterback, (imagine having a good back-up QB?), that may put that concern to rest.
GEORGIA 12-0 (475-189) ranked: 1/1/1 ART +155
Sat 12/2 vs. Alabama 11-1 (429-215) 8/8/8 ART +79 in the SEC title game
Can they win three in a row? First they have to get there. Here comes the SEC title game against Alabama, who beat them in this game two years ago. But this is a school that could get in with one loss, like the Tide used to.
MICHIGAN 12-0 (451-123) ranked: 2/2/2 ART: +55
Sat 12/2 vs. Iowa 10-2 (216-146) ART: ZERO in the Big 10 title game
The Wolverines have passed the tests that finally came in beating Penn State and Ohio State. The Big Ten title game will be against Iowa, which should not be a problem. But if the Hawkeyes can keep the gam low scoring and close, anything could happen.
OHIO STATE 11-1 (394-132) ranked: 6/6/6 ART: +64
The Buckeyes have an advantage of sorts: they can’t lose this week. They can sit back and see who does.
OREGON 11-1 (543-191) ranked: 5/5/5 +154
Sat 12/2 vs. WASHINGTON 12-0 (456-276) ART: +69 in the Pac12 title game
The Ducks are looking really good. I could see a Georgia-Oregon game being a heck of a battle. But they have to beat the only team that beat them first.
TEXAS 11-1 (421-207) ranked: 7/7/7 ART: +73
Sat 12/2 vs. Oklahoma State 9-3 (362-328) +30 in Big 12 title game
The Longhorns have sort of lurked in the background but Alabama’s only loss is to them.
WASHINGTON 12-0 (456-276) ranked: 3/3/3 ART: +69
Sat 12/1 vs. OREGON 11-1 (543-191) ART +154 In the Pac 12 title game.
The challenges keep coming but the Huskies remain undefeated. The Huskies have beaten four ranked teams - by a combined 22 points. Winning close games is a useful skill in a championship tournament. But it could be aa sign of vulnerability, as well.
We’ve still got 4 undefeated power five teams. Can they all stay that way? I’ve added in the one-loss teams in case they can’t. This might have been a good time to go to 12 teams. (I still don't understand why it isn't 8, which seems perfect.)
Pesci Bowl
JAMES MADISON 11-1 (422-222) ranked 24/25/UR
Appalachian State 8-4 (429-320) finished second in the Sun Belt’s Eastern Division, (but did beat the Dukes) and will be playing in the conference title game because of that rule that JMU has to wait to participate in FBS post season games. Troy 9-2 (321-183) won the Western Division.
LIBERTY 12-0 (481-260) ranked 20/22/24
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State 10-3 (367-256) in the Conference USA title game
Our old pals from Liberty made it 11-0 but the Aggies, who just embarrassed Auburn, await in the conference title game. Still, a 12-1 Liberty team would have a good shot.
TOLEDO 11-1 (423-245) 23/UR/UR
Sat 12/2 Miami University 10-2 (327-196) in the MAC title game
How silly of me. In previous posts in this series, I forgot about the Rockets, (whose coach might wind up being ours).
TULANE 11-1 (306-204) ranked 17/18/22 ART -11
Sat 12/2 Southern Methodist (502-212) ART -31 in the AAC title game
It’s fund to see Tulane, who actually has an interesting football history having a good run. But out soon-to-be conference brethren, the Mustangs, will prove to be a hard horse to break.
Ty-D Bowl
AKRON 2-10 (195-336)
EAST CAROLINA 2-10 (208-265) ART -4
KENT STATE 1-11 (176-415)
LOUISIANA-MONROE 2-10 (208-419) ART -19
NEVADA-RENO 2-10 (208-401)
VANDERBILT 2-10 (274-434) (Actually, there was a Power Five team with fewer than three wins.)
The 2023 Ty-D-Bowl will be between KENT STATE 1-11 (176-415) and LOUISIANA-MONROE 2-10 (208-419). The Warhawks were chosen over the other two win teams based on point differential. It’s the third Ty-D-Bowl for each.