SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s time I got going with my annual fall series on undefeated teams in contention for the very real four team playoff for the national championship and the fictional Pesci Bowl and Ty-Dee Bowl. The latter two are my inventions. The national championship playoff will likely again be between Power Five level teams, (Notre Dame included). The Pesci Bowl is named after the vertically challenged but feisty actor Joe Pesci and is a single game between the two best non-Power Five conference teams. The Ty-dee bowl, named after a toilet cleaning product, is a battle between the two worst FBS teams in the country.
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 8-0 (433-127) #1 in both the writer’s and coaches’ poll (1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +26 points
Bye
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/10 Mississippi State 4-3 (189-95) ART: +37
Sat 11/17 The Citadel (FCS) 2-4 (171-190) ART: none (as opposed to having played ranked teams with a net of 0 points)
Sat 11/24 Auburn 5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. The best chance for them to get vinced in this regular season would seem to be at LSU on 11/3. It will never happen but my daydream is that they invite the Alabama of FCS, North Dakota State, to play them for their FCS game. That would be fun to watch. Instead we get the The Citadel. Meh! But ‘meh’ is exactly what Nick was looking for.
CLEMSON 7-0 (294-94) 2/2 ART: +44
Sat 10/27 at Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Sat 11/10 at Boston College 5-2 (277-182) ART: -2
Sat 11/17 Duke 5-2 (206-134) ART: none
Sat 11/24 South Carolina 3-3 (173-155) ART: -2
Comments: Florida State could get feisty and that trip to BC could be a problem. Duke is pretty good. Miami, Virginia or Virginia Tech await in the ACC title game. There’s a lot of opportunities to slip up there, which doesn’t mean the Tigers will.
NOTRE DAME 7-0 (228-131) ranked 3/3 ART: +83
Sat 10/27 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Northwestern 4-3 (170-172) ART: +25
Sat 11/10 Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 in NYC Syracuse 5-2 (298-188) ART: +19
Sat 11/24 at Southern California 4-3 (182-192) ART: +20
Comments: Now that they have the right quarterback, the Irish will be tough to beat. SU will try in Yankee Stadium and the Trojans will have a shot at them on the west coast. There will be no conference title game and if the committee has a chance to get Notre Dame into the playoff with any credibility, they will be there. We might actually be their best remaining opponent. That game in Yankee Stadium will get national attention of both teams get the job done. Will Sports Center be there?
We have fewer than four undefeated power conference teams so it’s time to look at the one-loss teams:
MICHIGAN 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Bye
Sat 11/3 Penn State 5-2 (298-154) ART: +21
Sat 11/10 at Rutgers 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/17 Indiana 4-4 (211-230) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 at Ohio State 7-1 (344-183) ranked 11/9 ART: +41
Comments: Jim Harbaugh finally won a big one. (He won some with Stanford and the Niners.) They still have to get by Penn State and that trip to Ohio State will be daunting. If they win those there will be the Big Ten title game. But, yeah, they could be in the playoff.
TEXAS 6-1 (215-161) ranked 6/7 ART: +73
Sat 10/27 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Sat 11/3 West Virginia 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Sat 11/10 at Texas Tech 5-2 (307-195) ART: +41
Sat 11/17 Iowa State 3-3 (148-136) ART: +54
Fri 11/23 at Kansas 2-5 (182-207) ART: +1
Comments: Tom Herman is finally getting results here and has a win over Oklahoma in his back pocket. The Big 12 does have a championship game now. They don’t have divisions so it’s between the teams with the best records. There could be a rematch. But every regular season game until Kansas should be competitive.
GEORGIA 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 10/27 Florida 6-1 (241-116) ranked 9/11 ART: +39
Sat 11/3 at Kentucky 6-1 (190-90) ranked 12/14 ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Auburn 5-3 (5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Sat 11/17 Massachusetts 2-6 (200-354) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Georgia Tech 3-4 (262-198) ART: -5
Comments: The next three games should all be challenging and Tech is a traditional rival. It will be tough to get back to the SEC title game but the Bulldogs have the talent to do it.
OKLAHOMA 6-1 (340-191) ranked 8/8 ART: +4
Sat 10/27 Kansas State 3-4 (163-175) ART: -24
Sat 11/3 at Texas Tech 5-2 (307-195) ART: +41
Sat 11/10 Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Sat 11/17 Kansas 2-5 (182-207) ART: +1
Fri 11/23 at West Virginia 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Comments: Road games against Texas Tech and West Virginia are dangerous but the Sooners will be favored to make the Big 12 title game and probably favored to win it. If they do that, they will probably be in the playoff.
FLORIDA 6-1 (241-116) ranked 9/11 ART: +39
Sat 10/27 Georgia 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 11/3 Missouri 4-3 (270-216) ART: +6
Sat 11/10 South Carolina 3-3 (173-155) ART: -5
Sat 11/17 Idaho (FCS) 3-4 (192-230) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Comments: If they beat Georgia at home they will probably go 11-1. The problem: their one loss was to Kentucky.
OHIO STATE 7-1 (344-183) ranked 11/9 ART: +41
Bye
Sat 11/3 Nebraska 1-6 (193-258) ART: -46
Sat 11/10 at Michigan State 4-3 (164-155) ART: +28
Sat 11/17 at Maryland 4-3 (190-163) ART: -18
Sat 11/24 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Comments: The Buckeyes won’t have Joey Bosa but they do have road games at 4-2 Michigan State and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. Their loss to Purdue was reminiscent of the disaster at Iowa last year, (24-55), which cost them a spot in the playoff. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy….
KENTUCKY 6-1 (190-90) ranked 12/14 ART: +45
Sat 10/27 at Missouri 4-3 (270-216) ART: +6
Sat 11/3 Georgia 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 11/10 at Tennessee 3-4 (181-210) ART: -20
Sat 11/17 Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Sat 11/24 at Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Comment: if they can beat Georgia at home. Kentucky will likely be in the SEC title game- in football!
WEST VIRGINIA 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Thu 10/25 Baylor 4-3 (232-217) ART: -2
Sat 11/3 at Texas 6-1 (215-161) ranked 6/7 ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Texas Christian 3-4 (199-173) ART: +2
Sat 11/17 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Fri 11/13 Oklahoma 6-1 (340-191) ranked 8/8 ART: +4
Comment: I’ve never quite bought the Mountaineers as title contenders, (or Will Grier as a Heisman candidate). Iowa State exposed them. That’s a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. I think they will get exposed again. Will their cancelled game with NC State be re-scheduled?
WASHINGTON STATE 6-1 (285-163) ranked 14/15 ART: +28
Sat 10/27 at Stanford 5-2 (174-145) ranked 24/23 ART: +33
Sat 11/3 California 4-3 (187-168) ART: -13
Sat 11/10 at Colorado 5-2 (222-150) ART: -3
Sat 11/17 Arizona 3-5 (222-232) ART: none
Fri 11/23 Washington 6-2 (229-125) ranked 15/13 ART: +52
Comments: State looked like a Rose Bowl team against Oregon but road games with Stanford and Colorado and the Apple Bowl will tell us more. It’s not the Pac 12’s year got the playoff, (which will hopefully move us toward an 8 team playoff with automatic bids).
IOWA 6-1 (214-99) ranked 18/18 ART: -3
Sat 10/27 at Penn State 5-2 (298-154) ranked 17/16 ART: +21
Sat 11/3 at Purdue 4-3 (250-159) ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Northwestern 4-3 (170-172) ART: +25
Sat 11/17 at Illinois 3-4 (173-238) ART: -49
Fri 11/23 Nebraska 1-6 (193-258) ART: -46
Comments: Any big 10 west team faces the same problem. “They haven’t played anybody”. Since the league realigned the west champ has never won the Big 10 title game. But it might not be Iowa’s problem. Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin also have only one Big Ten loss and the Badgers beat the Hawkeyes.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 5-1 (172-125) ranked 22/22 ART: -11
Sat 10/27 at Syracuse 5-2 (298-188) ART: +19
Sat 11/3 Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Thu 11/8 Wake Forest 3-4 (211-259) ART: -49
Sat 11/17 at Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Sat 11/24 at North Carolina 1-5 (140-209) ART: -27
Sat 12/1 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Another team that hasn’t beaten anybody. They got whipped by Clemson and are hurting. Do we count as “somebody? After Florida State they have a pretty easy road. But, as far as the playoff goes, it’s a road to nowhere. They aren’t the sort of program that gets in with one loss.
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Sat 10/20 at East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Bye
Thu 11/1 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 11/10 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Cincinnati 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Fri 11/23 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Comments: Central Florida vs. South Florida should again be a great game in a developing rivalry. The winner might get into an 8 team playoff but not a 4 team playoff. Neither has played a ranked team. The winner will still have a conference title game to get through and Temple and Cincinnati could cause trouble.
SOUTH FLORIDA 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 10/20 Connecticut 1-6 (152-360) ART: -83
Sat 10/27 at Houston 6-1 (341-204) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Tulane 2-5 (173-208) ART: -21
Sat 11/10 at Cincinnati 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Fri 11/23 Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Comments: Houston, Cincinnati and Temple could spoil the party, as the Owls just did to the Bearcats.
I hope Central and South Florida come into their regular season ending confrontation undefeated. Obviously one of them won’t come out of it that way. So I might as well list the one loss teams here as well.
APPLACHIAN STATE 5-1 (269-94) ranked 25/- ART: +9
Thu 10/25 at Georgia Southern 6-1 (217-135) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Coastal Carolina 4-3 (215-225) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Texas State 1-6 (149-198) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Georgia State 2-5 (169-256) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Troy 5-2 (236-172) ART: -32
Comments: The former three-time FCS champs and onetime conquers of Michigan are back in force. They lost a wild OT game at Penn State and have outscored five opponents 231-49, (46-10 per game) since. Six time FCS champ Georgia Southern is a major roadblock at their place and Troy was good enough to win at LSU last year. But the Mountaineers are looking pretty good.
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 6-1 (234-106) ART: none
Sat 10/27 at Texas-El Paso 0-7 (123-221) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-San Antonio 3-5 (139-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Southern Mississippi 3-3 (162-121) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Texas A&M 5-2 (226-144) ranked 16/17 ART: +44
Sat 11/24 at Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Comments: UAB controversially gave up their football program after the 2014 season. They brought it back last year and immediately went 8-5. I guess they figured that if you are going to play, you need to win. That should not be a problem the next two weeks but then it gets harder.
BUFFALO 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Bye
Tue 10/30 Miami University 3-5 (210-199) ART: none
Tue 11/6 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Wed 11/14 at Ohio University 4-3 (254-217) ART: none
Fri 11/23 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Comments: Buffalo had no team from 1971-1998 and from 1999-2017 went 65-160 (.289). All of a sudden they will be favored to wind up 11-1 and be favored in the MAC title game.
CINCINNATI 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Sat 10/20 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 10/27 at Southern Methodist 3-4 (198-261) ART: -45
Sat 11/3 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/10 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Fri 11/23 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Cincy has their best team since the Brian Kelly-Butch Jones Era, but maybe not quite that good. Temple smashed their goose-egg last week. I don’t think they are quite as good as either of the Florida teams.
FRESNO STATE 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Sat 10/27 Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at UNLV 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Fri 11/9 at Boise State 5-2 (273-159) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 San Diego State 6-1 (145-129) ART: +2
Sat 11/24 San Jose State 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Comments: Fresno has traditionally been one of the better mid-majors in football, (9 Pesci Bowl appearances), which is why it was shocking to see them going 1-11 in 2016 and making their first ever Ty-Dee Bowl appearance. They hired Jeff Tedford, the former California coach who played quarterback for the Bulldogs in the early 80’s. Tedford has totally turned the program around, going 10-4 his first year, a stunning 9 game improvement. This year their record is similar to App State. They lost by a touchdown to a Big Ten team, Minnesota 14-21 after leading late in the fourth quarter. They’ve steamrolled their other six opponents 252-67, (42-11 per game).
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6-1 (217-139) ART: -7
Thu 10/25 Appalachian State 5-1 (269-94) ranked 25/- ART: +9
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 (192-284) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Troy 5-2 (236-172) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 at Coastal Carolina 4-3 (215-225) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Georgia State 2-5 (169-256) ART: none
Comments: The Eagles, famous for their triple-option attack that got them six national championships in FCS, are starting to make some noise in FBS. But App State is a very formidable opponent and troy is good, too.
HOUSTON 6-1 (341-204) ART: none
Sat 10/27 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Southern Methodist 3-4 (196-261) ART: -45
Sat 11/10 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Thu 11/15 Tulane 2-5 (173-208) ART: -21
Fri 11/23 at Memphis 4-4 (340-343) ART: +15
Comment: The Cougars, once a power conference team, (SEC), have become one of the most consistently successful mid-majors. They will be a major threat to beat USF and should run the table after that. They will surely be the opponent of one of the Florida schools in the AAC title game.
SAN DIEGO STATE 6-1 (145-129) ART: +2
Sat 10/27 at Nevada-Reno 4-4 (261-257) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at New Mexico 3-4 (236-224) ART: -10
Sat 11/10 UNLV 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 at Fresno State 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Comments: The Aztecs also have quite a history as mid-major. They have 323 wins as a major in their 50th year at that level. Their problem this year is that they don’t score. They’ve won five straight games by a touchdown or less. They’ve beaten Boise State and also Arizona State. But Fresno State and Utah State are the best teams in this conference, (the Mountain West)
UTAH STATE 6-1 (334-159) ART: +8
Sat 10/27 New Mexico 3-4 (236-224) ART: -10
Sat 11/3 at Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Sat 11/10 San Jose State 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 at Colorado State 3-5 (200-302) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Boise State 5-2 (273-159) ART: -11
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 48 points per game. Their only loss was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. That trip to Boise looms but it would be no surprise to see Fresno State vs. Utah State for the MWC title – and a possible spot in the Pesci Bowl.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders
SAN JOSE STATE 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Sat 10/27 Nevada-Las Vegas 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Sat 11/3 at Wyoming 2-6 (124-204) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Utah State 6-1 (334-159) ART: +8
Sat 11/17 Nevada-Reno 4-4 (261-257) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Fresno State 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Comments: UNLV and Wyoming appear to be the Spartans’ best shot at a win. Utah State and Fresno State are their best shots at being blown out.
TEXAS-EL PASO 0-7 (123-221) ART: none
Sat 10/20 at Louisiana Tech 5-2 (203-163) ART: +3
Sat 10/27 Alabama-Birmingham 6-1 (234-106) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Rice 1-7 (153-310) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Sat 11/17 at Western Kentucky 1-6 (141-202) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 Southern Mississippi 3-3 (162-121) ART: +3
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
They are looking forward to Rice and Western Kentucky. The Miners were 0-12 last year and it could happen again.
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 8-0 (433-127) #1 in both the writer’s and coaches’ poll (1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +26 points
Bye
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 (243-121) ranked 4/4 ART: +114
Sat 11/10 Mississippi State 4-3 (189-95) ART: +37
Sat 11/17 The Citadel (FCS) 2-4 (171-190) ART: none (as opposed to having played ranked teams with a net of 0 points)
Sat 11/24 Auburn 5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. The best chance for them to get vinced in this regular season would seem to be at LSU on 11/3. It will never happen but my daydream is that they invite the Alabama of FCS, North Dakota State, to play them for their FCS game. That would be fun to watch. Instead we get the The Citadel. Meh! But ‘meh’ is exactly what Nick was looking for.
CLEMSON 7-0 (294-94) 2/2 ART: +44
Sat 10/27 at Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Sat 11/10 at Boston College 5-2 (277-182) ART: -2
Sat 11/17 Duke 5-2 (206-134) ART: none
Sat 11/24 South Carolina 3-3 (173-155) ART: -2
Comments: Florida State could get feisty and that trip to BC could be a problem. Duke is pretty good. Miami, Virginia or Virginia Tech await in the ACC title game. There’s a lot of opportunities to slip up there, which doesn’t mean the Tigers will.
NOTRE DAME 7-0 (228-131) ranked 3/3 ART: +83
Sat 10/27 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Northwestern 4-3 (170-172) ART: +25
Sat 11/10 Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 in NYC Syracuse 5-2 (298-188) ART: +19
Sat 11/24 at Southern California 4-3 (182-192) ART: +20
Comments: Now that they have the right quarterback, the Irish will be tough to beat. SU will try in Yankee Stadium and the Trojans will have a shot at them on the west coast. There will be no conference title game and if the committee has a chance to get Notre Dame into the playoff with any credibility, they will be there. We might actually be their best remaining opponent. That game in Yankee Stadium will get national attention of both teams get the job done. Will Sports Center be there?
We have fewer than four undefeated power conference teams so it’s time to look at the one-loss teams:
MICHIGAN 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Bye
Sat 11/3 Penn State 5-2 (298-154) ART: +21
Sat 11/10 at Rutgers 1-7 (121-270) ART: -27
Sat 11/17 Indiana 4-4 (211-230) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 at Ohio State 7-1 (344-183) ranked 11/9 ART: +41
Comments: Jim Harbaugh finally won a big one. (He won some with Stanford and the Niners.) They still have to get by Penn State and that trip to Ohio State will be daunting. If they win those there will be the Big Ten title game. But, yeah, they could be in the playoff.
TEXAS 6-1 (215-161) ranked 6/7 ART: +73
Sat 10/27 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Sat 11/3 West Virginia 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Sat 11/10 at Texas Tech 5-2 (307-195) ART: +41
Sat 11/17 Iowa State 3-3 (148-136) ART: +54
Fri 11/23 at Kansas 2-5 (182-207) ART: +1
Comments: Tom Herman is finally getting results here and has a win over Oklahoma in his back pocket. The Big 12 does have a championship game now. They don’t have divisions so it’s between the teams with the best records. There could be a rematch. But every regular season game until Kansas should be competitive.
GEORGIA 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 10/27 Florida 6-1 (241-116) ranked 9/11 ART: +39
Sat 11/3 at Kentucky 6-1 (190-90) ranked 12/14 ART: +45
Sat 11/10 Auburn 5-3 (5-3 (227-132) ART: +38
Sat 11/17 Massachusetts 2-6 (200-354) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Georgia Tech 3-4 (262-198) ART: -5
Comments: The next three games should all be challenging and Tech is a traditional rival. It will be tough to get back to the SEC title game but the Bulldogs have the talent to do it.
OKLAHOMA 6-1 (340-191) ranked 8/8 ART: +4
Sat 10/27 Kansas State 3-4 (163-175) ART: -24
Sat 11/3 at Texas Tech 5-2 (307-195) ART: +41
Sat 11/10 Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Sat 11/17 Kansas 2-5 (182-207) ART: +1
Fri 11/23 at West Virginia 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Comments: Road games against Texas Tech and West Virginia are dangerous but the Sooners will be favored to make the Big 12 title game and probably favored to win it. If they do that, they will probably be in the playoff.
FLORIDA 6-1 (241-116) ranked 9/11 ART: +39
Sat 10/27 Georgia 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 11/3 Missouri 4-3 (270-216) ART: +6
Sat 11/10 South Carolina 3-3 (173-155) ART: -5
Sat 11/17 Idaho (FCS) 3-4 (192-230) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Comments: If they beat Georgia at home they will probably go 11-1. The problem: their one loss was to Kentucky.
OHIO STATE 7-1 (344-183) ranked 11/9 ART: +41
Bye
Sat 11/3 Nebraska 1-6 (193-258) ART: -46
Sat 11/10 at Michigan State 4-3 (164-155) ART: +28
Sat 11/17 at Maryland 4-3 (190-163) ART: -18
Sat 11/24 Michigan 7-1 (288-115) ranked 5/5 ART: +59
Comments: The Buckeyes won’t have Joey Bosa but they do have road games at 4-2 Michigan State and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. Their loss to Purdue was reminiscent of the disaster at Iowa last year, (24-55), which cost them a spot in the playoff. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy….
KENTUCKY 6-1 (190-90) ranked 12/14 ART: +45
Sat 10/27 at Missouri 4-3 (270-216) ART: +6
Sat 11/3 Georgia 6-1 (273-114) ranked 7/6 ART: +19
Sat 11/10 at Tennessee 3-4 (181-210) ART: -20
Sat 11/17 Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Sat 11/24 at Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Comment: if they can beat Georgia at home. Kentucky will likely be in the SEC title game- in football!
WEST VIRGINIA 5-1 (221-123) ranked 13/12 ART: +9
Thu 10/25 Baylor 4-3 (232-217) ART: -2
Sat 11/3 at Texas 6-1 (215-161) ranked 6/7 ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Texas Christian 3-4 (199-173) ART: +2
Sat 11/17 at Oklahoma State 4-3 (276-199) ART: +32
Fri 11/13 Oklahoma 6-1 (340-191) ranked 8/8 ART: +4
Comment: I’ve never quite bought the Mountaineers as title contenders, (or Will Grier as a Heisman candidate). Iowa State exposed them. That’s a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. I think they will get exposed again. Will their cancelled game with NC State be re-scheduled?
WASHINGTON STATE 6-1 (285-163) ranked 14/15 ART: +28
Sat 10/27 at Stanford 5-2 (174-145) ranked 24/23 ART: +33
Sat 11/3 California 4-3 (187-168) ART: -13
Sat 11/10 at Colorado 5-2 (222-150) ART: -3
Sat 11/17 Arizona 3-5 (222-232) ART: none
Fri 11/23 Washington 6-2 (229-125) ranked 15/13 ART: +52
Comments: State looked like a Rose Bowl team against Oregon but road games with Stanford and Colorado and the Apple Bowl will tell us more. It’s not the Pac 12’s year got the playoff, (which will hopefully move us toward an 8 team playoff with automatic bids).
IOWA 6-1 (214-99) ranked 18/18 ART: -3
Sat 10/27 at Penn State 5-2 (298-154) ranked 17/16 ART: +21
Sat 11/3 at Purdue 4-3 (250-159) ART: +73
Sat 11/10 Northwestern 4-3 (170-172) ART: +25
Sat 11/17 at Illinois 3-4 (173-238) ART: -49
Fri 11/23 Nebraska 1-6 (193-258) ART: -46
Comments: Any big 10 west team faces the same problem. “They haven’t played anybody”. Since the league realigned the west champ has never won the Big 10 title game. But it might not be Iowa’s problem. Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin also have only one Big Ten loss and the Badgers beat the Hawkeyes.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 5-1 (172-125) ranked 22/22 ART: -11
Sat 10/27 at Syracuse 5-2 (298-188) ART: +19
Sat 11/3 Florida State 4-3 (176-168) ART: -7
Thu 11/8 Wake Forest 3-4 (211-259) ART: -49
Sat 11/17 at Louisville 2-5 (143-234) ART: -12
Sat 11/24 at North Carolina 1-5 (140-209) ART: -27
Sat 12/1 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Another team that hasn’t beaten anybody. They got whipped by Clemson and are hurting. Do we count as “somebody? After Florida State they have a pretty easy road. But, as far as the playoff goes, it’s a road to nowhere. They aren’t the sort of program that gets in with one loss.
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Sat 10/20 at East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Bye
Thu 11/1 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 11/10 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Cincinnati 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Fri 11/23 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Comments: Central Florida vs. South Florida should again be a great game in a developing rivalry. The winner might get into an 8 team playoff but not a 4 team playoff. Neither has played a ranked team. The winner will still have a conference title game to get through and Temple and Cincinnati could cause trouble.
SOUTH FLORIDA 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 10/20 Connecticut 1-6 (152-360) ART: -83
Sat 10/27 at Houston 6-1 (341-204) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Tulane 2-5 (173-208) ART: -21
Sat 11/10 at Cincinnati 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Fri 11/23 Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Comments: Houston, Cincinnati and Temple could spoil the party, as the Owls just did to the Bearcats.
I hope Central and South Florida come into their regular season ending confrontation undefeated. Obviously one of them won’t come out of it that way. So I might as well list the one loss teams here as well.
APPLACHIAN STATE 5-1 (269-94) ranked 25/- ART: +9
Thu 10/25 at Georgia Southern 6-1 (217-135) ART: -7
Sat 11/3 at Coastal Carolina 4-3 (215-225) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Texas State 1-6 (149-198) ART: none
Sat 11/17 Georgia State 2-5 (169-256) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Troy 5-2 (236-172) ART: -32
Comments: The former three-time FCS champs and onetime conquers of Michigan are back in force. They lost a wild OT game at Penn State and have outscored five opponents 231-49, (46-10 per game) since. Six time FCS champ Georgia Southern is a major roadblock at their place and Troy was good enough to win at LSU last year. But the Mountaineers are looking pretty good.
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 6-1 (234-106) ART: none
Sat 10/27 at Texas-El Paso 0-7 (123-221) ART: none
Sat 11/3 Texas-San Antonio 3-5 (139-230) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Southern Mississippi 3-3 (162-121) ART: +3
Sat 11/17 at Texas A&M 5-2 (226-144) ranked 16/17 ART: +44
Sat 11/24 at Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Comments: UAB controversially gave up their football program after the 2014 season. They brought it back last year and immediately went 8-5. I guess they figured that if you are going to play, you need to win. That should not be a problem the next two weeks but then it gets harder.
BUFFALO 7-1 (263-169) ART: none
Bye
Tue 10/30 Miami University 3-5 (210-199) ART: none
Tue 11/6 Kent State 1-7 (184-280) ART: -38
Wed 11/14 at Ohio University 4-3 (254-217) ART: none
Fri 11/23 at Bowling Green 1-7 (205-382) ART: -32
Comments: Buffalo had no team from 1971-1998 and from 1999-2017 went 65-160 (.289). All of a sudden they will be favored to wind up 11-1 and be favored in the MAC title game.
CINCINNATI 6-1 (247-106) ART: none
Sat 10/20 at Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Sat 10/27 at Southern Methodist 3-4 (198-261) ART: -45
Sat 11/3 Navy 2-5 (204-240) ART: none
Sat 11/10 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/17 at Central Florida 7-0 (311-127) ranked 10/10 ART: none
Fri 11/23 East Carolina 2-5 (150-230) ART: -11
Comments: Cincy has their best team since the Brian Kelly-Butch Jones Era, but maybe not quite that good. Temple smashed their goose-egg last week. I don’t think they are quite as good as either of the Florida teams.
FRESNO STATE 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Sat 10/27 Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at UNLV 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Fri 11/9 at Boise State 5-2 (273-159) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 San Diego State 6-1 (145-129) ART: +2
Sat 11/24 San Jose State 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Comments: Fresno has traditionally been one of the better mid-majors in football, (9 Pesci Bowl appearances), which is why it was shocking to see them going 1-11 in 2016 and making their first ever Ty-Dee Bowl appearance. They hired Jeff Tedford, the former California coach who played quarterback for the Bulldogs in the early 80’s. Tedford has totally turned the program around, going 10-4 his first year, a stunning 9 game improvement. This year their record is similar to App State. They lost by a touchdown to a Big Ten team, Minnesota 14-21 after leading late in the fourth quarter. They’ve steamrolled their other six opponents 252-67, (42-11 per game).
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6-1 (217-139) ART: -7
Thu 10/25 Appalachian State 5-1 (269-94) ranked 25/- ART: +9
Sat 11/3 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 (192-284) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Troy 5-2 (236-172) ART: -32
Sat 11/17 at Coastal Carolina 4-3 (215-225) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Georgia State 2-5 (169-256) ART: none
Comments: The Eagles, famous for their triple-option attack that got them six national championships in FCS, are starting to make some noise in FBS. But App State is a very formidable opponent and troy is good, too.
HOUSTON 6-1 (341-204) ART: none
Sat 10/27 South Florida 7-0 (249-180) ranked 21/20 ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Southern Methodist 3-4 (196-261) ART: -45
Sat 11/10 Temple 5-3 (244-171) ART: +13
Thu 11/15 Tulane 2-5 (173-208) ART: -21
Fri 11/23 at Memphis 4-4 (340-343) ART: +15
Comment: The Cougars, once a power conference team, (SEC), have become one of the most consistently successful mid-majors. They will be a major threat to beat USF and should run the table after that. They will surely be the opponent of one of the Florida schools in the AAC title game.
SAN DIEGO STATE 6-1 (145-129) ART: +2
Sat 10/27 at Nevada-Reno 4-4 (261-257) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at New Mexico 3-4 (236-224) ART: -10
Sat 11/10 UNLV 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Sat 11/17 at Fresno State 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Sat 11/24 Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Comments: The Aztecs also have quite a history as mid-major. They have 323 wins as a major in their 50th year at that level. Their problem this year is that they don’t score. They’ve won five straight games by a touchdown or less. They’ve beaten Boise State and also Arizona State. But Fresno State and Utah State are the best teams in this conference, (the Mountain West)
UTAH STATE 6-1 (334-159) ART: +8
Sat 10/27 New Mexico 3-4 (236-224) ART: -10
Sat 11/3 at Hawaii 6-3 (314-296) ART: none
Sat 11/10 San Jose State 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Sat 11/17 at Colorado State 3-5 (200-302) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Boise State 5-2 (273-159) ART: -11
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 48 points per game. Their only loss was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. That trip to Boise looms but it would be no surprise to see Fresno State vs. Utah State for the MWC title – and a possible spot in the Pesci Bowl.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders
SAN JOSE STATE 0-7 (147-264) ART: -7
Sat 10/27 Nevada-Las Vegas 2-5 (216-261) ART: -11
Sat 11/3 at Wyoming 2-6 (124-204) ART: none
Sat 11/10 at Utah State 6-1 (334-159) ART: +8
Sat 11/17 Nevada-Reno 4-4 (261-257) ART: none
Sat 11/24 at Fresno State 6-1 (266-88) ART: none
Comments: UNLV and Wyoming appear to be the Spartans’ best shot at a win. Utah State and Fresno State are their best shots at being blown out.
TEXAS-EL PASO 0-7 (123-221) ART: none
Sat 10/20 at Louisiana Tech 5-2 (203-163) ART: +3
Sat 10/27 Alabama-Birmingham 6-1 (234-106) ART: none
Sat 11/3 at Rice 1-7 (153-310) ART: none
Sat 11/10 Middle Tennessee State 4-3 (176-206) ART: -19
Sat 11/17 at Western Kentucky 1-6 (141-202) ART: -9
Sat 11/24 Southern Mississippi 3-3 (162-121) ART: +3
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
They are looking forward to Rice and Western Kentucky. The Miners were 0-12 last year and it could happen again.