We need a reality check...

[Orangtiz]

Listen, I just as much as most, thought this team was dead. They've put together two nice home wins and the offense looks better along with the zone. However, this team is still very much fighting for the NCAA tournament. They currently have 1 good win over Pitt and still have a lot of very tough teams ahead of them. And while I have seen vast improvement I'm not ready to say this team is going to beat the Duke's, L'Ville's, UNC's. Lets just take this thing one game at a time but a 5 man rotation might not hold up well over the course of the season.

 

[dasher]

Listen, I just as much as most, thought this team was dead. They've put together two nice home wins and the offense looks better along with the zone. However, this team is still very much fighting for the NCAA tournament. They currently have 1 good win over Pitt and still have a lot of very tough teams ahead of them. And while I have seen vast improvement I'm not ready to say this team is going to beat the Duke's, L'Ville's, UNC's. Lets just take this thing one game at a time but a 5 man rotation might not hold up well over the course of the season.[/QU The sky is blue. I haven't seen anyone say that we are going to beat anyone. Yours is a solution to a problem that doesn't exist. And Miami is a quality win.

 

[Briancuse]

I'm not getting too excited, I am just hoping we can make this season somewhat interesting, I still believe its going to take a minor miracle to get in the tourney.

 

[jncuse]

Maybe I am missing the threads or posts, but I haven't seen anybody really talk about the tournament and what we need since yesterday's game.

I think people are just happy right now this is not an 0-18 or 4-14 that many were afraid of.

 

[upperdeck]

if we get to 9-9 with this group its been a great job.. that gives is a shot in the ACC tourney to get to the ncaa and keeps us over .500.. after that anything more means this team has trended up in a really good way.

 

[Briancuse]

if we get to 9-9 with this group its been a great job.. that gives is a shot in the ACC tourney to get to the ncaa and keeps us over .500.. after that anything more means this team has trended up in a really good way.

I don't think 9-9 would be good enough, our resume is so bad right now, we would have to get to the acc title game.

 

[SUGIANT]

How is this not interesting?

 

[Orangtiz]

Well now I'm just going to bring up this one point too. So if we think that 4-14 in the ACC or something comparable to that is good, then consider the fact that the 5 JB seems to have settled on are 3 seniors, 1 sophomore who could leave after the season, and a freshman who if keeps playing like this could leave after this season. Then what are we looking at for next year??? Yikes!! Go Orange and I hope they continue to improve.

And yes the rest of the season should be interesting.

 

[upperdeck]

I don't think 9-9 would be good enough, our resume is so bad right now, we would have to get to the acc title game.

but who has a good resume in the bottom of the draw with quality wins? there are teams with solid records but no real wins either.. 9-9 in the acc means we will have to have 5-6 good wins and some teams will finish 20-7 with 1-2.

history has shown they reward good wins more than punish bad losses. 9-9 may not get us in but it will mean that a couple ACC tourney wins will probably be enough.

the question is where does 9-9 put us in the ACC. we could be 13-3 and right now and still have no OOC quality wins. Would that make 9-9 any more solid? there are 11 ACC teams with less than 5 losses. All of those will be decent wins if we get any..

We need to beat Beat BC to wash that one away.

really look at who the Brackets have in now against solid teams , the resumes are not that disparate, other than our bad losses.

Miami - losses to Florida/ISU and SU. everything else is fluff. so no bad losses but less good wins that us.
Virg- win over Iowa/OSU/FSU losses to Pitt and SU and WV
Pitt - win over Virg/Mary/Marq Losses to SU and ND
SU - win over Miami/Pitt loss vs Wisc
NC st win over VT. losses to UNC/ Miami / ILL/ Creighton
VT win over Mich Duke , loss to FSU/ NC st

we control our destiny against VT/GT/NC st/Pitt/Miami/Virg the teams we will compete with for spots. We could lose all the other ACC games and win the next BC game and be 9-9 with h2h against all those peer ACC team right now and that might make us 7-8th in the league..

 

[Briancuse]

but who has a good resume in the bottom of the draw with quality wins? there are teams with solid records but no real wins either.. 9-9 in the acc means we will have to have 5-6 good wins and some teams will finish 20-7 with 1-2.

history has shown they reward good wins more than punish bad losses. 9-9 may not get us in but it will mean that a couple ACC tourney wins will probably be enough.

the question is where does 9-9 put us in the ACC. we could be 13-3 and right now and still have no OOC quality wins. Would that make 9-9 any more solid? there are 11 ACC teams with less than 5 losses. All of those will be decent wins if we get any..

We need to beat Beat BC to wash that one away.

really look at who the Brackets have in now against solid teams , the resumes are not that disparate, other than our bad losses.

Miami - losses to Florida/ISU and SU. everything else is fluff. so no bad losses but less good wins that us.
Virg- win over Iowa/OSU/FSU losses to Pitt and SU and WV
Pitt - win over Virg/Mary/Marq Losses to SU and ND
SU - win over Miami/Pitt loss vs Wisc
NC st win over VT. losses to UNC/ Miami / ILL/ Creighton
VT win over Mich Duke , loss to FSU/ NC st

we control our destiny against VT/GT/NC st/Pitt/Miami/Virg the teams we will compete with for spots. We could lose all the other ACC games and win the next BC game and be 9-9 with h2h against all those peer ACC team right now and that might make us 7-8th in the league..

We are going to have at least 3 bad losses, maybe even 4, with zero good wins in our non conference schedule, we are going to need to go 12-6 just to avoid being on the bubble.

 

[bballbeadle]

Look, if I'm shipwrecked and being sucked down to the abyss, no idea which way to swim, preparing to go into the tunnel where mom waits for me, then see some moonlight, kick up to the surface, get smacked in the head by flotsam, grab it and hang onto for dear life, am I happy? Yes! Do I still think I'm going to make it to Aruba? No.

I think most of us are just happy to be on the surface of a roiling sea. I'm not even thinking of the NCAAs. Really. I am thinking I would sure like to beat Virginia Tech.

 

[jncuse]

Well now I'm just going to bring up this one point too. So if we think that 4-14 in the ACC or something comparable to that is good, then consider the fact that the 5 JB seems to have settled on are 3 seniors, 1 sophomore who could leave after the season, and a freshman who if keeps playing like this could leave after this season. Then what are we looking at for next year??? Yikes!! Go Orange and I hope they continue to improve.

And yes the rest of the season should be interesting.

Who said that 4-14 would be good?

I think the expectations for this team are still very moderate (or day to day), but I think even the majority of the fear mongering crew now think we can best 2-13 the rest of the way.

 

[cuseinseattle]

Well now I'm just going to bring up this one point too. So if we think that 4-14 in the ACC or something comparable to that is good, then consider the fact that the 5 JB seems to have settled on are 3 seniors, 1 sophomore who could leave after the season, and a freshman who if keeps playing like this could leave after this season. Then what are we looking at for next year??? Yikes!! Go Orange and I hope they continue to improve.

And yes the rest of the season should be interesting.

So Battle is leaving now after scoring 15 points and playing good defense. Good to know.

 

[cuseinseattle]

Maybe I am missing the threads or posts, but I haven't seen anybody really talk about the tournament and what we need since yesterday's game.

I think people are just happy right now this is not an 0-18 or 4-14 that many were afraid of.

You aren't missing anything.

 

[Orangtiz]

So Battle is leaving now after scoring 15 points and playing good defense. Good to know.

Did we think Chris McCullough was leaving after he averaged 10 points per game and tore his ACL after 11 games? Come on man you just as well as I would not be shocked if Battle goes, its so unpredictable, you see the upside and you know the NBA drafts based on upside. Richardson essentially scored 23 points and played bad defense and thats why he left. Look at it through a bigger picture. But yeah keep it in your mind, its good for you to know!

 

[Briancuse]

So Battle is leaving now after scoring 15 points and playing good defense. Good to know.

We are a fickle bunch when it comes to leaving early, we had TT getting his speech ready for Springfield after a couple of good games.

 

[cuseinseattle]

Did we think Chris McCullough was leaving after he averaged 10 points per game and tore his ACL after 11 games? Come on man you just as well as I would not be shocked if Battle goes, its so unpredictable, you see the upside and you know the NBA drafts based on upside. Richardson essentially scored 23 points and played bad defense and thats why he left. Look at it through a bigger picture. But yeah keep it in your mind, its good for you to know!

I thought McCullough was leaving before he stepped on campus. I would be shocked if Battle left after this year.

 

[two3zone]

Did we think Chris McCullough was leaving after he averaged 10 points per game and tore his ACL after 11 games? Come on man you just as well as I would not be shocked if Battle goes, its so unpredictable, you see the upside and you know the NBA drafts based on upside. Richardson essentially scored 23 points and played bad defense and thats why he left. Look at it through a bigger picture. But yeah keep it in your mind, its good for you to know!

McCullough was gone before he got here.

 

[jncuse]

but who has a good resume in the bottom of the draw with quality wins? there are teams with solid records but no real wins either.. 9-9 in the acc means we will have to have 5-6 good wins and some teams will finish 20-7 with 1-2.

history has shown they reward good wins more than punish bad losses. 9-9 may not get us in but it will mean that a couple ACC tourney wins will probably be enough.

the question is where does 9-9 put us in the ACC. we could be 13-3 and right now and still have no OOC quality wins. Would that make 9-9 any more solid? there are 11 ACC teams with less than 5 losses. All of those will be decent wins if we get any..

We need to beat Beat BC to wash that one away.

really look at who the Brackets have in now against solid teams , the resumes are not that disparate, other than our bad losses.

Miami - losses to Florida/ISU and SU. everything else is fluff. so no bad losses but less good wins that us.
Virg- win over Iowa/OSU/FSU losses to Pitt and SU and WV
Pitt - win over Virg/Mary/Marq Losses to SU and ND
SU - win over Miami/Pitt loss vs Wisc
NC st win over VT. losses to UNC/ Miami / ILL/ Creighton
VT win over Mich Duke , loss to FSU/ NC st

we control our destiny against VT/GT/NC st/Pitt/Miami/Virg the teams we will compete with for spots. We could lose all the other ACC games and win the next BC game and be 9-9 with h2h against all those peer ACC team right now and that might make us 7-8th in the league..

I think you are definetely heading in the right direction (as you are adding some good ACC tournament wins). In earlier threads when people were suggesting 13-5 or 12-6, I had brought up 11-7 as a number that would at least give us a good bubble resume (whether it is enough or not) based on my projected analysis of other bubble teams.

If the team wins it next couple of games I may do an analysis again. It has to prove to me that it is capable of getting to 10 or 11 wins first.

 

[AZcuse77]

We are going to have at least 3 bad losses, maybe even 4, with zero good wins in our non conference schedule, we are going to need to go 12-6 just to avoid being on the bubble.

No way will SC be a bad loss... but yes 9-9 with 3 bad losses with 0 good wins OOC isn't getting it done and probably not 10-8 without some deep ACC tournament run. I think 12-6 is not required in this good of an ACC this year and 11-7 will get us in not just on the bubble. I guess 11-7 with a first round ACC tournament exit would make me nervous.

The fact is it's only two decent wins and going 5.5 deep. We are not even to the point of thinking about the tournament yet. 4-14 is still a distinct possibility if things break wrong, someone gets injured, etc. This team may not be as bad as we feared after BC but it's very thin and probably not as good as we look when we are hitting every jumper the last two games.

 

[AZcuse77]

I think you are definetely heading in the right direction (as you are adding some good ACC tournament wins). In earlier threads when people were suggesting 13-5 or 12-6, I had brought up 11-7 as a number that would at least give us a good bubble resume (whether it is enough or not) based on my projected analysis of other bubble teams.

If the team wins it next couple of games I may do an analysis again. It has to prove to me that it is capable of getting to 10 or 11 wins first.

I should have read through the thread first... sorry I just kinda wrote the same thing.

 

[Dave85]

We have 15 games left. Our record is 10-6. I think to make the tournament we will need 19 or 20 wins. 19 depending on who we beat in the remaining games. So out of the remaining 15 games we need to go 10-5.

According to Massey Ratings we are 96. We need to get below 64 to make the tournament:

College Basketball Ranking Composite

Here's our next 15 games and each team's Massey rating:

Virginia Tech 24
Boston College 159
North Carolina 13
Notre Dame 22
Wake Forest 44
Florida State 11
NC State 54
Virginia 8
Clemson 23
Pittsburgh 50
Louisville 7
Georgia Tech 103
Duke 9
Louisville 7
Georgia Tech 103

It's really going to be tough getting 10 wins out of that list.

 

[cuseinseattle]

We have 15 games left. Our record is 10-6. I think to make the tournament we will need 19 or 20 wins. 19 depending on who we beat in the remaining games. So out of the remaining 15 games we need to go 10-5.

According to Massey Ratings we are 96. We need to get below 64 to make the tournament:

College Basketball Ranking Composite

Here's our next 15 games and each team's Massey rating:

Virginia Tech 24 win
Boston College 159 win
North Carolina 13
Notre Dame 22
Wake Forest 44 win
Florida State 11 win
NC State 54 win
Virginia 8
Clemson 23 win
Pittsburgh 50 win
Louisville 7
Georgia Tech 103 win
Duke 9
Louisville 7 win
Georgia Tech 103 win

It's really going to be tough getting 10 wins out of that list.

 

[Dave85]

_

 

[AZcuse77]

We have 15 games left. Our record is 10-6. I think to make the tournament we will need 19 or 20 wins. 19 depending on who we beat in the remaining games. So out of the remaining 15 games we need to go 10-5.

According to Massey Ratings we are 96. We need to get below 64 to make the tournament:

College Basketball Ranking Composite

Here's our next 15 games and each team's Massey rating:

Virginia Tech 24
Boston College 159
North Carolina 13
Notre Dame 22
Wake Forest 44
Florida State 11
NC State 54
Virginia 8
Clemson 23
Pittsburgh 50
Louisville 7
Georgia Tech 103
Duke 9
Louisville 7
Georgia Tech 103

It's really going to be tough getting 10 wins out of that list.

This does not address the factor of the ACC tournament. If we went 10-5 (12-6 ACC) the rest of the way to be 20-11 we would likely be a lock even with a first round ACC tournament exit (20-12). If we finish 9-6 (11-7 ACC) with a win in the ACC tourney to finish 20-13 we are pretty comfortable. If we finish 8-7 (10-8 ACC) with our zero quality OOC wins we'll need a deep ACC tourney run at minimum or a very weak bubble. If we finish 7-8 (9-9 ACC) or worse with zero quality OOC wins we probably need to win the ACC tourney.