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We need a reality check...

RPI Forecast

Some quick thoughts based on forecasted resumes.

Keep in mind you can't create a 68 team tournament field without adding at least a few P5+1 teams with an RPI above 50.

1, Of the teams with a projected RPI over 50, Michigan probably looks the best and it's not an overwhelming resume. So let's use that as a baseline for a good bubble resume. 4-8 vs top 50. Wins over SMU and Marquette in the OOC.

2. The interesting thing is that while we are projected at an RPI of 99 with a 9-9 ACC record, we would have the most top 50 projected wins of anyone between #50-$100

#2 clearly shows the benefit of the ACC this year. You simply can't win 9,10. or 11 ACC games without getting some top 50 victories.

11 ACC wins gives us an expected RPI of 68, and 5 or 6 top 50 wins. That's still my good bubble resume target.
 
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I agree the Georgetown loss is a bad loss in the sense that it's a game we should have won, but on the team sheet, in front of the committee, I don't think it's going to particularly stand out. BC will for sure. St. Johns and UConn probably will as well.
 
Nah, we aren't on the team. We don't have to keep focused or do the whole "don't get too high after wins or too low after losses" thing. After a horrid start to the season, we've played two very good games in a row. I'm a fan, I'm just going to enjoy it.

Actually that doesn't apply to me. Inevitably, if I get too excited after a win and start looking ahead in our schedule, it blows up in my face.
 
Ahh... you said in our non-conference schedule, but I guess you just meant that for the 0 quality wins part.

I meant bad losses overall, and then no good non conf wins.
 
I agree the Georgetown loss is a bad loss in the sense that it's a game we should have won, but on the team sheet, in front of the committee, I don't think it's going to particularly stand out. BC will for sure. St. Johns and UConn probably will as well.

It will if Gtown keeps losing, The St Johns and Uconn games will def stand out.
 
It will if Gtown keeps losing, The St Johns and Uconn games will def stand out.

They have a projected RPI of 92, their Ken Pom is around 60. 100 is usually where they (arbitrarily, of course) draw the line
 
Less than a week ago, look how many people were saying we wouldn't win another single game all season. Now people are talking about the tournament.

What changed? JB turned over the keys to the offense to Gillon and benched Howard. Score one. JB benched Coleman, whom we all admire but admit has major limitations. Score two. Roberson seems to be back to being Roberson. Score three. JB has a short hook with TT who has major problems on defense. Score four. Battle is not only starting but playing 40 minutes and has been rock-solid. Score five.

We are all (or mostly all) rabid SU fans and are always looking at the upside. Playing 5.5 players in the tough ACC is a monster task and may end up hurting us as much as helping us, but the way the team on the floor the last 2 games has executed at least gives us a glimmer of hope in what looked to be a devastating season.
 

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