What we need from the young guys

[Brooky03]

Hopefully, this makes conceptual sense. This is my thinking: A lot of us are comparing next season's team directly to the guys they need to replace from this past season's team. I think a few different factors are clouding judgment in that regard, so I'm going to compare each one to an older player at the same experience level to see what we get.

These are primarily comparisons of offense because I think the D will be improved, or at least equally as good.

Here it goes.

Tyus Battle - Freshman Jonny Flynn: Flynn went for 16 and 5 as a Freshman with solid scoring efficiency and great playmaking. Though Battle will play mostly SG and the sizes obviously don't compare well, I don't see why/how he wouldn't be able to put up similar numbers, with some more rebounds substituted for a couple assists. I haven't looked at recruiting rankings that closely, but Battle has to be the higher ranked recruit and his highlight tapes show similar playmaking that I remember seeing from Flynn, just with more size and less flash.

Frank Howard - RS Sophomore Scoop Jardine: Again, I think the recruiting rankings - however imperfect they are - favor the new guy here. Scoop put up 9 and 4, which I think is more than attainable for a guard looking at probably 25-ish mpg. Scoop was really efficient from the field, which I don't think Howard will match, but I think he'll be a far cry from the percentages we saw during his Freshman campaign. Howard will rack up some serious assists numbers while putting up a few less points than Scoop did, imo.

John Gillon - Sophomore Allen Griffin: 8 and 3. Harder to place because I don't remember a transfer at guard like this and we haven't had many mighty mouses over the years. Griffin had an uncharacteristic year from 3-point range as a Sophmore that Gillon should match. Gillon gets discounted in experience because of where he played before and the fact he's a transfer.

Tyler Lydon - Junior Kris Joseph: Lydon's talent level gets him a bump in terms of the experience level comparison. 14 and 5 on really good shooting. This comparison would actually represent a minor scoring increase and rebounding decrease from what Lydon already just gave us, not to mention the efficiency difference, so he could beat this... perhaps by a lot.

Paschal Chukwu - Sophomore Darryl Watkins: The age doesn't really matter; Watkins didn't change much between his 2nd and 4th seasons here on a per minute basis. This would give Chukwu something like 6 ppg, 6 rbg, and 2.2 bpg.

Moyer - I don't know. Suggestions?

We know what we're getting with Roberson and Coleman pretty much.


Long read, I know. Sorry about that. So, if you had these two teams going against each other, who is your money on?

G - FR Jonny Flynn G - RS SR Gbinije
G - RS SO Scoop G - RS SR Cooney
F - JR Kris Joseph F - FR Malachi
F - SR Roberson F - JR Roberson
C - RS SR Coleman C - RS JR Coleman
6 - SO Allen Griffin 6 - FR Tyler Lydon
7 - SO-JR Watkins 7 - FR Howard
8 - FR Moyer

 

[chugg21]

I had tried to come up with something kind of similar to this yesterday with a friend once Malichi officially left. Tried to figure out where we were going to come up with 70ppg which seems like a fairly accurate estimate as to what we should expect given the team has averaged between 68-70ppg over each of the last 4 years. I think based on what we are going to need to happen that your estimates are fairly close as we were guessing the backcourt is going to have to get to about half of that 70. I was a little more optimistic on Gillon guessing he would probably get to 10 and put Battle around 14. Either way, its pretty close. Leaves the front court needing 35 and that seems completely doable as Lydon/Roberson/Coleman combined for 24 last year as probably the 4th/5th/6th options on the team. Add in probably a 25% increase in opportunity for them and add in a few putbacks and dunks for Chukwu and a pretty low estimate of 4ppg from Moyer and that would get us to that other 35. Think these are all fairly reasonable estimates and don't really see a reason for the offense to have a big jump or crater from what we've averaged the past 4 seasons.

 

[MSOrange]

Nice post Brooky. I will slight disagree with you on Gillon. I'll be really nervous if we don't get double figures scoring out of him. I know RF is really high on him and I am also. I see Tyler averaging closer to 16-17 ppg than 14. Not sure I see Frank going quite for 9 ppg. Boeheim will have to loosen the reins on him a little bit and I don't think his outside shot is unimprovable (I don't think that's a word!) - but I see him closer to around 6 or 7 ppgs

 

[br801]

Nice post Brooky. I will slight disagree with you on Gillon. I'll be really nervous if we don't get double figures scoring out of him. I know RF is really high on him and I am also. I see Tyler averaging closer to 16-17 ppg than 14. Not sure I see Frank going quite for 9 ppg. Boeheim will have to loosen the reins on him a little bit and I don't think his outside shot is unimprovable (I don't think that's a word!) - but I see him closer to around 6 or 7 ppgs

I will defer to you on these matters since you have that Iggy on your mantel.

 

[br801]

Oh, I'll try this anyway...

Coleman 8 ppg
Chukwu 3
Roberson 11
Lydon 16
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 7
Gillon 9

70 ppg. Not inconceivable.

 

[pearl31]

Oh, I'll try this anyway...

Coleman 8 ppg
Chukwu 3
Roberson 11
Lydon 16
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 7
Gillon 9

70 ppg. Not inconceivable.

not only not inconceivable, but actually quite attainable
(I'd even say it's on the conservative side but my glasses are awfully orange-colored :noidea

 

[Dave85]

Oh, I'll try this anyway...

Coleman 8 ppg
Chukwu 3
Roberson 11
Lydon 16
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 7
Gillon 9

70 ppg. Not inconceivable.

RE: inconceivable

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

 

[Dave85]

Oh, I'll try this anyway...

Coleman 8 ppg
Chukwu 3
Roberson 11
Lydon 16
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 7
Gillon 9

70 ppg. Not inconceivable.

This is pretty good. Plus or minus 2 to every number. I think Moyer will do better than 3 per game. He may be slightly under rated nationally since he committed to SU so early.

 

[RF2044]

Coleman 5 ppg
Chukwu 5
Roberson 12
Lydon 15
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 6
Gillon 14

73 points. Four in double figures.

 

[Dave85]

Coleman 5 ppg
Chukwu 5
Roberson 12
Lydon 15
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 6
Gillon 14

73 points. Four in double figures.

Alright, I'll give it a try:

Chukwu 4
Coleman 4
Roberson 14
Lydon 14
Moyer 6
Battle 12
Howard 8
Gillon 8

70 points. My thinking is Roberson and Lydon get better passing from Howard and Gillon for easier finishes.

 

[br801]

RE: inconceivable

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

Sure it does. It means unthinkable or unimaginable.

 

[Dave85]

Sure it does. It means unthinkable or unimaginable.

I was quoting the movie Princes Bride.

 

[tee1222]

Sure it does. It means unthinkable or unimaginable.

Yep, he did add the not in front of inconceivable

 

[Dave85]

Yep, he did add the not in front of inconceivable

My name is ...tee1222! You read post, prepare to argue!

 

[br801]

I was quoting the movie Princes Bride.

That was lost on me then.

 

[Dave85]

That was lost on me then.

It's a great scene in the movie. You should watch it. It has a done of lines that are quoted everywhere.

 

[br801]

Coleman 5 ppg
Chukwu 5
Roberson 12
Lydon 15
Moyer 3
Battle 13
Howard 6
Gillon 14

73 points. Four in double figures.

You are bullish on Gillon. I am bullish on Coleman, thinking he will benefit from having guards who are more capable and willing passers, and guessing he and Chukwu will end up splitting time in the middle.

I would also like to hear from the folks who believe this team will struggle to get to 60 ppg.

 

[Dave85]

You are bullish on Gillon. I am bullish on Coleman, thinking he will benefit from having guards who are more capable and willing passers, and guessing he and Chukwu will end up splitting time in the middle.

I think Lydon and Roberson will be our big finishes. I'm not sure Coleman will be as fast as those two.

 

[br801]

I think Lydon and Roberson will be our big finishes. I'm not sure Coleman will be as fast as those two.

I'm thinking Coleman will benefit more in the half court sets.

 

[OttoMets]

Interesting idea. Some of these guys are fairly difficult comps; also, I've never seen Battle play and have even less faith in my ability to assess the transfer. That said, this is a realistic possibility:

Frank Howard: Edelin's freshman year scoring. Only Frank's going to shoot and dish to complement that 9 per.
Battle: Michael Lloyd. 12 per. I have no idea, though, and that Flynn comp doesn't sound too bad either.
Lydon: Could he be ready to reach the heights of Preston Shumpert as a junior? That'd be almost 20 per; probably a bit past his ceiling.
Roberson: Ryan Blackwell. Less time spent on the perimeter, but should manage about 11 and 9 on more efficient shooting.
Coleman: 2016 Coleman. If he stays healthy, he could build on those averages a bit. 6 and 6 would be a success.
Gillon: 2000 DeShaun? I have no idea what to expect here, but this guy probably knows how to play and will score a bit. Let's pretend that he'll score as many more than 6.3 as Lydon will score fewer than 19.5.
Chukwu: 1990 Leron Ellis. Mookie was a nice comp, too. Don't know how we could expect more than 6 per from this kid this season.
Moyer: C.J.'s freshman year. I think the kid knows how to play and is going to steal minutes that he'd never see on a deep roster. Maybe closer to 6 per.

That's about 75 points a game, and none of it seems unrealistic. That said, it probably won't shake out this way.

 

[OttoMets]

I think Lydon and Roberson will be our big finishes. I'm not sure Coleman will be as fast as those two.

Yeah, looking back at my prediction and wondering how I could get to 75, I see that I've given 6/per to both centers.

That's probably overly bullish: we just don't get that kind of offensive production out of that position, no matter who's playing there (especially when it's a limited guy and a new kid).

I hope Roberson and Lydon are working to improve their finishing, because they'll be the recipients of most of those passes.

 

[RF2044]

You are bullish on Gillon. I am bullish on Coleman, thinking he will benefit from having guards who are more capable and willing passers, and guessing he and Chukwu will end up splitting time in the middle.

I would also like to hear from the folks who believe this team will struggle to get to 60 ppg.

I completely agree that our bigs [Lydon, Roberson, Coleman, and Chukwu] are going to benefit from getting some slick interior passes from Gillon--and to a lesser extent, Battle--that will provide several easy scoring opportunities inside every game.

We're going to play a bit differently next year, as a function of having guards who can get into the line, drive, and dish.

 

[chugg21]

Interesting idea. Some of these guys are fairly difficult comps; also, I've never seen Battle play and have even less faith in my ability to assess the transfer. That said, this is a realistic possibility:

Frank Howard: Edelin's freshman year scoring. Only Frank's going to shoot and dish to complement that 9 per.
Battle: Michael Lloyd. 12 per. I have no idea, though, and that Flynn comp doesn't sound too bad either.
Lydon: Could he be ready to reach the heights of Preston Shumpert as a junior? That'd be almost 20 per; probably a bit past his ceiling.
Roberson: Ryan Blackwell. Less time spent on the perimeter, but should manage about 11 and 9 on more efficient shooting.
Coleman: 2016 Coleman. If he stays healthy, he could build on those averages a bit. 6 and 6 would be a success.
Gillon: 2000 DeShaun? I have no idea what to expect here, but this guy probably knows how to play and will score a bit. Let's pretend that he'll score as many more than 6.3 as Lydon will score fewer than 19.5.
Chukwu: 1990 Leron Ellis. Mookie was a nice comp, too. Don't know how we could expect more than 6 per from this kid this season.
Moyer: C.J.'s freshman year. I think the kid knows how to play and is going to steal minutes that he'd never see on a deep roster. Maybe closer to 6 per.

That's about 75 points a game, and none of it seems unrealistic. That said, it probably won't shake out this way.

Last time they managed to get to 74 was '11-'12, they had Joseph, Waiters, Scoop, Triche, Southerland and Fab. Even with the reduced shot clock I can't imagine them getting too close even though it seems like a fairly minimal difference. I'm really interested in what the offense is going to look like with such an inexperienced and likely poor perimeter shooting backcourt save for possibly Gillon based on his past #s.

 

[RF2044]

Last time they managed to get to 74 was '11-'12, they had Joseph, Waiters, Scoop, Triche, Southerland and Fab. Even with the reduced shot clock I can't imagine them getting too close even though it seems like a fairly minimal difference. I'm really interested in what the offense is going to look like with such an inexperienced and likely poor perimeter shooting backcourt save for possibly Gillon based on his past #s.

Depends on if they speed things up. I could see it happening if we run more.

 

[SC Orange]

I think people are sleeping on Moyer. In highlight tapes, I know they aren't a great way to judge, he looks like he has the hops of Warrick. I am not saying he will be Warrick but the jumping ability is there. We will be fine, come on now, this is Syracuse basketball