Winning Plays 2016: Connecticut

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

 

[SWC75]

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: C35P, C23, C24, C25, C35P
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 2
P: 39 to C38, 44 to C6, 21 to C47, 32 to SU 45, 43 to C6
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 3
FG: No Good from 49, Good from 47, No Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 7

1r: 3, 9, 4, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 14, 0, 1, 3, 1(4), -2V
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 11
1p: I, I, 9, 5, 24, 13, 7, 7, I, I, I, 12, 11, 11, 6
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Connecticut 16
2r: 2(9), 6(3), 2, 2(9), 3(9)
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 4
2p: 15, 57TD, -2, 30TD, I, 6(8), -11S, 11(5), 5(7), I, -10P, 9(20), 8(9), 11(10), 13(8), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 12
3r: 1(2), 3(1), -1, 5, 6TD
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 2
3p: 18(3), I, 21, I, 29(2), I, I, 59(7), 16(7), 7(4)
Total: Syracuse 6 Connecticut 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Connecticut 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 32 Connecticut 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Connecticut 2

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 42 Connecticut 43

Comments: We had a terrible day kicking the ball. You usually dominate on plays were you kick, (we came in 40-13) but were only 10-7 in this game. Connecticut had troubles, too, going 10-4, (our opposition had been 51-11). Maybe playing outside on a windy day impacted the kickers. But we will be playing outdoors in 4 of our next 5 games. I’m also not sold on that “Let’s pretend there’s only one half of the field” kick-off formation. It could be broken through and we are getting too many out of bounds kick-offs. It’s now happened three times. Our running game continues to be dismal, (8-17). Yeah, it sets us the passing game. Successful plays set up successful plays.


When CONNECTICUT had the ball:

KO: SU25, SU13, SU26, SU27, SU46
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 2
P: 20 to SU 41, 34 to SU 20, 34 to SU 20, 40 to SU 6, 50 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 4
FG: Good from 27
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 10

1r: 4, 2, 1, -1, 3, 5, 4, 2TD, 19, 4TD, 11, 8, 4, 1, 3, 2, 9, -2, 2, 4(8)
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 11
1p: I, 3, I, 3, 7, 14, I, I, 7, I, 6, I, 9, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Connecticut 16
2r: 1(6), 7(9), 5(7), 1(7), 6TD, 3(2), -2, -1, -4, 5(4), 6(1), 5(8), 2(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Connecticut 8
2p: 8(8), I, I, 8(5), I, I, 4(7), 2(3), I, 5, 1(3), 1, 11(6), 24(12), 8, 19, -7S
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Connecticut 17
3r: -1, 3(2), 3(11), 2(1), 10(11), 0
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 2
3p: 8, 20(2), 15(6), I, 5(6), 9(3), 16, 18(5), I, 8(9), INT-TD, I, I, 7(2), 5(17)
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Connecticut 9
4r: 1(1), 2(1), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 2
4p: I, 17(3), 24(12)
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 4

Total on running plays: Syracuse 19 Connecticut 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 26 Connecticut 23
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 45 Connecticut 46

Penalties not tacked on to plays: none Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0

Game total when CONNECTICUT had the ball: Syracuse 49 Connecticut 56

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99

Comments: We held our own on defense against a bad offensive team. The goal line stand makes it a win. We did give up 11 plays of over 10 yards but none of them went farther than 24 yards. We will be playing some limited offensive teams later in the season but not enough to get us to a bowl game based on that alone.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2 = 14-8
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3 = 16-9
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2 = 7-3
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0 = 13-0
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7 = 50-20

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11 = 26-47
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5 = 36-34
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16 = 62-81
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4 = 18-28
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8 = 33-33
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12 = 51-6
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2 = 14-12
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4 = 31-23
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6 = 45-35
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0 = 2-1
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0 = 5-4

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17 = 60-88
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17 = 103-93
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34 = 163-181

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2 = 5-16

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43 = -218-217

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 47% of the plays from scrimmage. First and second down runs are the biggest problem, (44-75). We are doing well on third down (45-35). Strangely we are doing well on third and fourth down runs, (16-13). Obviously we must not have far to go.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2 = 7-18
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4 = 7-21
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1 = 1-4
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3 = 0-18
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10 = 15-61

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11 = 29-47
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5 = 28-26
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16 = 57-73
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8 = 22-25
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9 = 26-15
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17 = 48-40
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2 = 6-9
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7 = 34-15
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9 = 40-24
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2 1-3
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4 = 2-5

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23 = 58-84
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23 = 89-58
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46 = 147-142

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0 = 6-1

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56 = 168-204

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99 = 386-421

Comment: Our defense on first down running plays is almost as bad as our offense (29-47 vs. 26-47). Despite the early problems against Louisville, we are actually doing very well against the pass, (89-58). But you aren’t a good defense if you can’t stop the run (58-84).

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
TOTAL: Syracuse 386 Opponent 421 We've 'won' 1 of 4 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,086 plays, (48.4%) and 24 games, (37.5%). The opposition has won 6,501 plays and 40 games with two games even.

 

[Dcuse]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I can't even get my lawn mowed.

 

[SWC75]

I can't even get my lawn mowed.

I'll be doing mine tomorrow.