Winning Plays: Florida State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: FS 22, FS 25, FS 25, FS 17, Onsides recovered by FS at FS 47
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 1
P: 37 to FS 6, 43 to FS 46, 47 to FS 20, 49 to FS 18, 44 to FS 11, recovered FUMBLE, 31 to FS 37, 34 to FS 37
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 2
FG: No Good from 48, (partially blocked), Good from 42 and No Good from 43, (partially blocked)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 Florida State 5

1r: -1, 2, 1, 1, 8, 1, 8, -1, 4, 0, 8, 3, 5, 1, 7, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3(6), 21
Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 10
1p: I, I, 34TD, 8, 6, 7, 8, 7, 12, 6, I, 5, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 20 Florida State 15
2r: 0, 1(9), 0, 2, 0, 4(3), -6, 3TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 6
2p: 6(11), 1(9), 7, I, 6, 5(2), I, I, 8, I, I, I, I, I, 10(2), I, -1(S), I, 5(4), I, 2(5), -9 (S), 16, 9
Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 15
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 21
3r: 0, 4(6), 30(7), 29(9), 2(2), 0, 2(3), 4(12), 6(3)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 5
3p: 9(5), Interception, 12(8), 9(8), I, I, 4(11), 21, I, -3(S), I, I, 18(9), 14, I, 15(14), I
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 10
Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 15
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
4p: 47TD, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Florida State 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 26 Florida State 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Florida State 53

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +13 Syracuse 2 Florida State 1

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 57 Florida State 59

Comments: We did well on first down, (20-15), poorly on second down (11-21) and pretty well on third down (11-15). The TD pass to Curtis was a fourth down play. Our kicking game was problematic with two partially blocked field goals and a botched on-sides kick. We did fall on a muffed punt return but then failed to score after that. Those plays decided the game.


When Florida State had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 35, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
P: 23 to FS 38, 55 to SU 3, 54 to SU 24, 55 to SU 28, 46 to SU 24, 38 to SU 30, 33 to SU 11, 39 to SU 10, 26 to SU 18
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 7
FG: Good from 49, Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 17

1r: 7, 2(21), 6, 3, 54TD, 1, 63TD, 7, -2v, 5, 5, 5, -4, 6, 12, 4, 8
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 13
1p: 5, -6(s), -5(S), 8, 18(15), I, 28, 5
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 18
2r: 4(3), 6(4), 3, 15(7), 1(9), 1, 10(15), 2(5), 1(2), 3(5), -1, 0, -4, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 7
2p: 51TD, 1(16), I, 14(5), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 9
3r: -5, 15(1), -1, 1(15), 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 1
3p: -11(S), -1, I, I, I, I, I, 15(14)
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Florida State 2
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: 5(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse16 Florida State 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 Florida State 9
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 29 Florida State 30

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -11, +15, -5 Syracuse 1 Florida State 2

Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 33 Florida State 49

Overall game total: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108

Comments: We were horrendous on first down (7-18), much better on second down (10-9) and lights out on third down (12-2). They dominated their own kicking plays: 3-17. Their three bad plays were a short kick-off that Riley returned to the SU 35, a punt returned to the FS 38 and a 38 yard punt to the SU 30. Only the second of those resulted in a scoring opportunity and that resulted in the first of two partially blocked field goals so it cost them nothing.

Florida State ‘won’ 18 more plays than we did. That makes it a -18 games. Since I’ve been keeping track of this, (2011), there have been a lot of games like this, against many of the same opponents:

2011 Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15 We lost 17-38
2011 Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20 We won 37-34
2011 Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21 We lost 13-30
2013 Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22 We lost 27-48
2013 Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16 We lost 16-17
2014 Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21 We lost 20-38
2014 Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20 We lost 10-27
2015 Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19 We lost 20-23
2015 Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16 We lost 21-45
2015 Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22 We lost 27-37
2015 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 29-42
2016 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017 Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2017 Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27

We are 1-15 in those games and have lost by at least 2 touchdowns 8 times.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 5-1 +3-3 + 4-2 + 4-1 = 39-16
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 + 3-1 + 4-1 +2-2 + 1-2 + 4-2 = 34-10
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 +2-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 = 19-5
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 +3-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 = 28-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 + 9-4 + 14-2 + 10-5 + 10-4 + 12-5 = 120-32

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 + 3-7 + 10-11 + 11-9 + 8-13 + 11-10 = 74-97
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 + 9-12 + 6-10 + 7-9 + 4-11 + 9-5 = 77-76
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 + 12-19 + 16-21 + 18-18 + 12-24 + 20-15 = 151-173
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 + 2-7 + 4-5 + 7-7 + 9-8 + 2-6 = 39-53
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 + 8-8 + 13-7 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 9-15 = 66-92
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +12-13 + 8-18 + 10-15 +17-12 + 11-15 + 12-20 + 11-21 = 105-145
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 2-4 + 4-4 + 6-2 + 6-2 + 4-5 = 37-33
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-6 + 3-8 + 3-8 + 6-10 + 7-10 = 44-69
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 + 7-10 + 7-12 + 9-10 + 12-12 + 11-15 = 81-102
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-1= 13-1
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 = 4-8
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 3-2 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-2 = 17-9

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 + 8-18 + 21-20 + 26-18 + 24-23 + 17-22 = 163-184
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 + 24-27 + 22-27 + 14-25 + 13-34 + 26-31 = 191-245
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 + 32-45 + 43-47 + 40-43 + 37-57 + 43-53 = 354-429

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 4-6 + 7-10 + 2-1 + 2-1 = 30-37

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 + 44-56 + 61-55 + 57-58 + 49-62 + 57-59 = 504-498

Comment: We have converted 81 third downs and 17 fourth downs, a total of 93 times we kept the ball rather than surrendering it. The opposition has converted 33 third downs and 3 fourth downs, a total of 36 times they didn’t surrender possession. That’s like 57 extra possessions for us.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 + 3-4 + 0-4 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-5 = 16-30
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 2-4 + 1-4 + 2-4 + 2-7 = 21-43
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-2 = 3-11
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-3 = 1-26
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 + 6-12 + 2-13 + 5-11 + 4-13 + 3-17 = 41-110

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 + 13-12 + 7-6 + 6-6 + 3-8 + 4-13 = 72-76
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 + 8-6 + 5-9 + 6-7 + 13-9 + 3-5 = 66-53
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 + 21-18 + 12-15 + 12-13 + 16-17 + 7-18 = 138-129
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 5-7 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 3-11 + 7-7 = 43-50
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 + 4-12 + 5-5 + 5-10 + 4-11 + 3-2 = 51-59
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 + 9-19 + 10-8 + 9-11 + 7-22 + 10-9 = 94-109
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 + 1-3 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 4-2 + 5-1 = 28-15
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 7-1 + 7-2 + 6-1 + 4-2 + 7-1 = 58-18
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 + 8-4 + 10-3 + 9-2 + 8-4 + 12-2 = 86-33
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-0
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 = 6-3

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 + 21-22 + 15-10 + 13-8 + 10-21 + 16-21 = 146-141
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-26 + 16-10 + 19-19 + 17-10 + 18-18 + 22-22 + 13-9 = 178-137
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-43 + 28-33 + 40-41 + 32-20 + 31-26 +32-43 + 29-30 = 324-278

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 + 2-2 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 1-2 = 15-16

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-59 + 31-48 + 49-56 + 36-35 + 38-39 + 37-57 + 33-49 = 380-404

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-110 + 80-103+ 93-112 + 97-90 + 95-97 + 86-119 + 90-108 = 884-902

Comment: We are doing worse on offensive plays from scrimmage (354-429) than defensive (324-278) but perhaps the most significant stat is that we’ve run 783 offensive plays to 602. It’s all about 3rd and 4th down.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 90 = +7
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 884 Opponents 902 = 0 We’ve ‘won’ 3 of 9 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 7,364 plays, (48.1%) and 28 games, (33.7%). The opposition has won 7,942 plays and 53 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 578 more plays than we have in 83 games, an average of 7.0 plays a game.