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  1. Knicks411

    Expectations for next season.

    My default prediction for the last few years has been within a game or two of 500 in conf, and right around the noon Thursday ACC tournament game. I just went back and checked, for the last 10 seasons we have been within 2 games of 500 in ACC play. Over the last 10 season we are 95-91 in ACC...
  2. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    You can't possibly get that much money down on Jontay Porter player props to make it worth it
  3. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I think I might have SGA second, but it hardly matters. But does provide me a segue. I know I have brought this up before, but it is wild how long we might end up going without an american born MVP. Harden was the last one in 2018. Jokic seems to have it locked up for this year, maybe next...
  4. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    He didnt win it last year so I think it's "ok" for him to win again this year. Which he should. Specific to the Derrick Rose year, that was after Lebron won 2 in a row, which was where Jokic was at last year, which opened the door to Embiid winning. (Embiid was also awesome last year)...
  5. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I got 57, missed the one you highlighted, what an incredible fact
  6. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I could still see them as the second favorite to come out of the west, though it would be great if they could stay away from Denver in the draw
  7. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Yes I am very happy with OG, but i have also been waiting for the RJ regression and it really hasnt come yet. I pulled down his location data, and he basically started finishing much better at the rim as well as making a lot more threes. Though yes it is also kinda funny he cant make a FT. He...
  8. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    NBA had their best guy on this one
  9. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Yeah I cant quite figure out why the Bucks just didnt hire Lue instead. So simple
  10. Knicks411

    SU Considered in NIL In-Season Tournament

    Reading the article, it isnt a lock we will be in. It says there are 8 teams this year and the story names 10 teams they're talking to. Just adding context, not saying they wont be in, but the OP is more definitive that seems warranted right now
  11. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    He did do pretty well to hold him to 36/13/9 in the series. I'm mostly joking, he shot a shade under 40% from the field, but also the rest of the team was trash. He did play well and Steph didnt have one of his classic Steph runs, but that's probably one that looking back doesnt seem all...
  12. Knicks411

    Another Win. Another Drop in the NET?

    Barely beating bad teams (Notre Dame, Louisville) at home just isn't going to help your NET. I guess it bothers some people, but any objective sorting metric just isnt going to be very impressed by that.
  13. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Yeah the last protest that actually won out was when Shaq was "fouled out" of a game where he only had 5 fouls. You're not going to win a protest if a ref just blows a call.
  14. Knicks411

    WWE Thread

    Man that makes a lot more sense, I read he was 61 and I was really struggling with that.
  15. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I was messing around with some of the Ken Pom data, I pulled down the ratings as of 1/1 (as a proxy for the start of conf season; thats when TCU played their final OOC game, fwiw). TCU has actually improved their rating by nearly 2 points per 100 since conference play, so they've done better...
  16. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    Again, I believe this effect is overstated. I dont think there are a lot of games that end up with 15 point margins that could realistically be 45-50. Certainly there are some games where a team eases up at the end, but I would be very interested to see how often this happens, how much it only...
  17. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I'm gonna use Ken Pom because it's A) available and B) probably close enough to the NET. In 2007, we were 38th in KP before the tournament started. I remember there was a lot of debate about us vs Arkansas (they were one of the last teams in, 12 seed) was one spot behind us. There were 11...
  18. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I guess I just kind of quibble with the "much better". You're talking about 10 points over the course of a 30 game season, and you're only assuming it happens in one direction and not the other Cleaning the Glass, which covers the NBA, does a thing where they filter out stats in garbage time...
  19. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    Ok I hear what you're saying. To the bolded point, as a general rule, I would be in favor of anything that results in more good teams playing each other, but I am not sure focusing on wins would get you that result. If wins matter more than you should go play Houston Christian instead of...
  20. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I guess my question is what do you mean by "it"? Like selection criteria? Because its not like they go strictly by the NET, they do seem to mostly use it as a sorting tool and general ranking system. It's not like they just take the best at large teams ranked by NET. (Just checked last...
  21. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    The main point that I am probably struggling to illustrate is the takes of "we should reward actually winning games" and "we should cap MOV" or whatever kind of go against one another. The teams with the best MOV are (generally!) the teams that win the most games! If you cap MOV at a certain...
  22. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    My gut says if they did some kind of a discount on point differential (like I mentioned above) it A) wouldnt really matter a whole lot, and B) would serve to just bring the best teams down and the worse teams higher. I took a look at our schedule, our net rating this year is +1.8. We've...
  23. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I think that also goes back to what I was saying before (and other people have as well) that once you get past a certain spot (top 20?) there just isnt much of a difference. I'll use Ken Pom because they have projected scores for games. Virginia Tech is 30 spots ahead of us at Ken Pom. And at...
  24. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    You could probably do something with discounting points the larger the differential is (IE, the 5 point difference between a 30 point and 35 point win is not as relevant as the 5 points between 2 and 7, for instance) but fundamentally I can't agree with the idea that a 10 point and 35 point win...
  25. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    I do think there is something to the idea that the vast majority of the non-conf games that determine much of the relative strengths of leagues happen early in the season when a lot in unsettled with teams breaking in many new players etc. I don't know if its feasible to fix that by swapping...
  26. Knicks411

    Manipulating the NET

    Or maybe you could seed the top and the bottom 12/16 (a lot of the auto bids at the bottom of the field are pretty bad) and do a random draw for the middle of the field.
  27. Knicks411

    Red Season 1 Now a Bust

    I think our OOC rating is helped by a few factors 1) the three toughest teams were all neutral, no home games, and 2) limiting the really bad opponents. I'm assuming KP just takes a weighted average (presumably adjusted for location) of your opponents, so if you played say, the 10th best team...
  28. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    It's interesting because 3 point rate may have finally hit an equilibrium; we've been right around 40% of FGA coming as 3's for the past few years, and in fact, we're just a little bit below the rate from a few years back. But 2 point FG% keep going up, we are at 54.6% this year, it was 54.8%...
  29. Knicks411

    Red Season 1 Now a Bust

    Ken pom currently ranks our SOS 21st. Non con was 87, so the non con isnt doing much heavy lifting. It'll probably drop a little because they have ND and Louisville coming up. Our strength of record is 47, I tend to like strength of record more than just a straight SOS, strength of record...
  30. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    The other point I would make is that no one in the actual 3 point contest beat Sabrina's score; she shot 26 and there were a few other people who got to 26, but no one beat that score other than literally the best shooter ever. One other thing; I got so mad when they had a 4 way tie for 26 in...
  31. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    It was just weird that as soon as this incredibly awesome thing ended Kenny immediately jumped into that.
  32. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Funny to read some of these comments because I think I've watched more NBA this year than I have ever before (and I used to watch a lot too). Surely the fact that the Knicks are good has nothing to do with it. But I really do think its a great product now.
  33. Knicks411

    Red Season 1 Now a Bust

    That's a good point (and I also agree with the context point you make below that) but one counter is I would say is that Red has no head coaching experience; you would think a prospective good coach who would be the next hire might think he would get a little longer leash than a guy who never...
  34. Knicks411

    Red Season 1 Now a Bust

    And yet the defense is actually still basically ok. 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That's not good or anything, but it isn't that bad, and the offense is 134th. That's the real issue. Again, not like 46th is something to be super proud of, but the last 4 years we ranked: 185th...
  35. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Cleaning the glass has them 21st in offense and 14th in defense since Doc took over, fwiw. He's really helped their transition D, they were 29th in % of possessions in transition under Griffin, they're 3rd since Doc took over They do have a Portland second, I wonder if pairing that with...
  36. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Loved the Steph-Sabrina shootout.
  37. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    Right I think the league probably sees this as a form of cap circumvention. (I think they do something like this in the NHL, but they also have a hard cap). You can be over the cap and yet do a trade where you effectively add a ton of salary. (though I guess you see stuff like this with trade...
  38. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I think Morey is generally pretty sharp, but not perfect. (The stuff with Russ outlined here is really bad), but if the standard is just going to be what has he ever won, then I mean there arent exactly a lot of good GMs out there, are there? Very happy with what the Knicks did
  39. Knicks411

    WWE Thread

    Meltzer was saying today that in fact this was the plan from the time they got Rock on the board on Jan 3rd. Which just kind of blows my mind. If they wanted to make Cody (who was already a pretty big star) an even bigger star they could just have him win the rumble and beat Roman at mania to...
  40. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I would still go with Jokic. There's some voter fatigue, but that contributed to him not winning last year, then he wrecked everyone in the playoffs. Annoying Knick game last night. Offense is really too shorthanded. Need some guys back
  41. Knicks411

    WWE Thread

    No one has been cucked (Can i say that?) harder than Cody was. Pretty sure Rock politicked to get the match in the last few days and the plan as of the Rumble was for Cody to win and face Roman. Instead, he just...declined the match?
  42. Knicks411

    Our forwards- some statistics

    Yeah if you look at the peripheral stats they are similar in a lot of them. Buddy did get a lot more steals though; about twice as many per 40 minutes. But the blocks, rebounds, FTA, all pretty similar.
  43. Knicks411

    Our forwards- some statistics

    Yeah needed to play at least 100 minutes in their career, didnt want someone who came in at the end of games to stand around and do nothing screw up the stats. There were 23 guys who showed up in the initial query who played 100 minutes or fewer. And let me tell you, there are some names on...
  44. Knicks411

    Our forwards- some statistics

    Since i have the download, in case anyone is curious, here are the top/bottom 5 among the SU F (per BBref so send any complaints their way) who played at least 100 minutes since 1992 Stocks 1) Jeremy McNeil 2) Chris McCullough 3) Rick Jackson 4) Rakim Christmas 5) Bourama Sidibe McNeil and...
  45. Knicks411

    Our forwards- some statistics

    It was just using whatever bbref had them coded as, so def not a perfect search but close enough. I cant remember McNeil playing many minutes as a F but he only shows up as a F when I use the play index. I also just went back and double checked my results, I had the wrong Boeheim on the stocks...
  46. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I have my (partial) season tickets for Saturday, price I get them for is around $125, looks like tickets around my section are listed around $550-600.
  47. Knicks411

    Our forwards- some statistics

    The basketball reference play index has data going back to the 92-93 season, I did a search for all SU forwards career stats since then. I filtered out anyone with under 100 minutes played in their career. That returns a list of 46 players. Bell averages 3.4 reb per 40 for his career. That...
  48. Knicks411

    2023-24 NBA Season

    I am ready to be hurt in April and May!
  49. Knicks411

    WWE Thread

    Yes I am very suspicious of Vince there, I assumed h was lying about Linda finding out
  50. Knicks411

    WWE Thread

    I'm still a little foggy on this. Vince told the woman his wife found out and they needed to act quickly, but he also has said (to her and elsewhere) that he and Linda are married on paper only, they havent lived together in years, etc. So her simply finding out he was sleeping with this woman...
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