2018 British Open

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jncuse

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#1
Current Betting Favourites

Dustin Johnson 12-1
Justin Rose 16-1
Rory 18-1
Fowler 18-1
Speith 20-1
Rahm 20-1
Koepka 22-1
Fleetwood 22-1
Thomas 25-1
Woods 25-1


Remember though that this tournament has a long history of odd winners and contenders since 2000. (Ben Curtis (world rank in the 300s), Darren Clarke, Todd Hamilton, Ernie Els (2013), Greg Norman in his 50's, Tom Watson at 59)

A longshot I like at 150-1. Alexander Bjork. He has been in contention in each of the last 3 European events that have had decent fields on linksy courses. (Scottish, Irish, France)
 

jncuse

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#3
The strategy off the tee will be very interesting this week given the massive rollouts that will be occurring. The general thought is that the sand traps are going to be much more punile than the rough.

Since it is so dry the rough is nowhere as thick in the past. Some players will be playing to avoid the traps. Some will take massive swings if the buckers are say at 300 yards to try to carry them, as they are not that scared about the rough.

Also many good drives, with any sort of fade or draw, could roll into the light rough.

Watching the golf channel, and Dustin Johnson is by far the best player on tour out of the rough. He is the betting favourite at 12-1. To me that is great value. Some people don't see DJ as an Open type player, but this week may set up better for him this week then any major.
 

KaiserUEO

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#4
Hit irons, let it roll...and put.

Phil will either be in top 5 or miss the cut by 100 swinging away with the only driver on the course..
 

jncuse

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#7
Keopka drives the green on the first par 4. On hole #3, he drives over the green on a par 4. Let' see if that aggressiveness pays off.

Tiger gets a birdie and one good drive, and the live betting moves him up from 25-1 to 14-1 as a co-favourite to win on live betting wtth Rahm and Koepka.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, because there is a rationale for the bombers to hit pass trouble, and also the hit irons approach helps others. Right now the bombers seem to be having success - Rahm, Finau, Koepka,
 

MSOrange

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#10
Tiger 2 back and Spieth 1 back! But doesn't seem like the course is playing too hard so I'd be surprised if Zach and Kisner weren't able to do well.
 

Alsacs

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#11
Tiger should just want to be within 3 of the lead by day’s end.
It’s amazing where he is now.
He has been aggressive but the last few holes are the toughest. He can’t after 14 be aggressive.

Speith and Fleetwood are the guys to watch this afternoon.
 

jncuse

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#12
Tiger and a whole bunch may post, but I think the course is playing so easy that the leader will end up around -12... unless there is a weather change.

Carnoustie is sort of defenceless right now with no wind, and the rough being not too thick.

As I say that Fowler decides to draw a driver with OB on the left. Not smart - hits it OB. Worst penalty in golf,
 
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jncuse

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#13
I was generally wrong (with some exceptions) about the bombers who tried to overpower the course by hitting past bunkers. They found enough other trouble. (DJ, Rahm, Koepka). Finau did survive, and Rory as well.
 

jncuse

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#14
Wind is picking up... Woods almost done his round. I still think some leader will get to double digits, but it's so certain.
 

jncuse

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#15
Tracking the original odds to now

Dustin Johnson 12-1... CUT
Justin Rose 16-1... 40-1
Rory 18-1... 12-1
Fowler 18-1... 25-1
Speith 20-1... 5-1
Rahm 20-1 ... CUT
Koepka 22-1... 50-1
Fleetwood 22-1... 4.5-1
Thomas 25-1... CUT
Woods 25-1... 10-1
 

jncuse

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#17
Johnny Miller just said "It would be easy to caddie here".

What an idiotic comment from the know it all. With all the roll outs off the tee and iron shots which somehow must be predicted, this is by far the hardest course to caddie all year.
 

jncuse

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#18
With the harder holes coming, the lead could come in at -8. Let's see if Speith can save par on the 18th.

That would be big for the guys who have already posted at -5... Woods, Molinari, Noren, Simpson
 

Alsacs

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#19
I wish they would water these fairways players shouldn’t be getting 70-90 yard rolls.
The fairways are too dry they are becoming slick and add too much yardage when hit properly.
 

cliftonparksufan

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#20
I wish they would water these fairways players shouldn’t be getting 70-90 yard rolls.
The fairways are too dry they are becoming slick and add too much yardage when hit properly.
Obviously the conditions are the same for all the players so it's all relative, but I actually like watching these courses at the Open because they are so much different than so many of the American courses. Will the weather affect play on Sunday. That will make for such a great finish if it does.
 

jncuse

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#21
If Eddie Pepperall posts a -5, he probably shouldn't leave the course right away. It would need Speith and Schauffele to really struggle, but generally the leaders are strugging this morning (Fleetwood, Kisner, Mcilroy)

-6 was 5th to start, now it is in a T3 position.
 

jncuse

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#22
If Speith misses a 20 footer and Schauffelle does not get up an up and down, Tiger at -7, will be one shot out of the lead.

Hater Nation in near shambles.
 

jncuse

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#25
Amazing shot by Kisner. Awful start, looking like it may continue, then he holes out from the bunker for a birdie.
 
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