2019 offense + 2020 defense = 2021?

OttoinGrotto

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Let's suppose you could get something like the offensive production we got in 2019 and mash it up with the defensive performance in 2020, and that's the team you roll with for 2021 - would you be confident in the team making a bowl?

On the plus/minus way of thinking, the 2019 team averaged 28 points a game, and the 2020 defense gave up 33 points a game, rounding up. So there's some ground to make up at a 5 ppg difference.

But there may be a few things to consider. One, we feel, and I think saw, that our defense was good early in games, but couldn't sustain the results given how much time they spent on the field thanks to an offense that couldn't move the ball, score, and generally give them a break.

The idea of yarfs is also interesting. 2019, we didn't feature an excellent offense by any means, HOWEVER, we totaled about a third more yards than 2020. A third. That's a big difference, and a much more functional offense. Could that tip things enough for the defense to make up the difference in scoring average?

I think that might. We faced 20 fewer snaps per game than our opponents this season. That's nuts. In 2019 our offense only had one snap per game fewer than our opponents. Closing that gap back up appears to be part of the formula for success.

Against what I anticipate to be a reasonable schedule, would the better offensive performance (let's just assume we duplicate 2019's offense) be enough when coupled with the 2020 defensive performance to get us back bowling? I think it's tight... but I think it would. Hopefully the 2021 team both improves over 2019's offensive numbers and 2020's defensive numbers and we don't even need to worry about it.
 

HRE Otto IV

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Are we assuming post Liberty D? Or are we taking the entire 12 games? Post Liberty D is easily a Bowl D. The entire 12 games is good enough to make a Bowl but you need a decent O.

2019 between bye week 1 and bye week 2 was worse on O than the majority of this year. So if we are getting that O, Dino is on the hot seat. If we get 2019 pre bye week 1 O we will be functional but we will not make a Bowl. If we get 2019 post bye week 2 O we will make a Bowl. If you are taking the entire 12 games then I would say it is not enough to make a Bowl.

Also crowd will be a factor. We play different a home with the fans there. That will increase our chances. If Covid is still around then it makes it even harder.
 

sutomcat

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Are we assuming post Liberty D? Or are we taking the entire 12 games? Post Liberty D is easily a Bowl D. The entire 12 games is good enough to make a Bowl but you need a decent O.

2019 between bye week 1 and bye week 2 was worse on O than the majority of this year. So if we are getting that O, Dino is on the hot seat. If we get 2019 pre bye week 1 O we will be functional but we will not make a Bowl. If we get 2019 post bye week 2 O we will make a Bowl. If you are taking the entire 12 games then I would say it is not enough to make a Bowl.

Also crowd will be a factor. We play different a home with the fans there. That will increase our chances. If Covid is still around then it makes it even harder.
I ran some numbers to see just how good the defense was post Liberty.

The passing yards didn’t show much improvement through the season. Might have gotten worse. I think this is partly a function of injury/opt outs and partly a function of who we played. Our CBs didn’t give up a TD in man coverage (which we played a ton of) until the last 2 games of the season. Those games were against NC State and ND, who both had big, physical WRs and QBs who could make accurate throws. Another reason was that the SU defense got a lot better defending the run, and passing the ball because the easiest way to move the ball.

But here are the numbers:

Yards RushingCarriesYPCYards PassingPoints
UNC160354.630331
Pitt127442.921521
GT275525.317420
Duke363635.828238
Liberty33848718238
Clemson14737428947
Wake187493.825038
BC191414.720816
UL13445327930
NC State95442.231336
Notre Dame283407.128545
-94
YPG172.8333333
YPG*134.7142857

The only difference between the two yards per game numbers post Liberty are the 172.83 is what actually happened. The 134.71 is what the number would be if we discount that 94 run run that Tyree kid made from ND near the end of the game.

The 172.83 number would put SU 73nd in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. The 134.71 number would put Syracuse 35th.

My conclusion is that the major improvements GoSU96 is talking about being possible for the defense are indeed very possible. They are in fact well underway.

The way to get good on defense is 1) figure out how to stop the run and then 2) figure out how to stop the pass. I think objective 1 is close to happening. That 283 yards ND got looks bad but the fact is that they have virtually no yards rushing in the first half (they only decent gain was the scramble by Book for the TD near the end of the half). If not for that long run by Tyree late, ND would have been held below 200 yards as well.

Clemson, ND, Wake...these are all teams that excel at running the ball. The defense really had a paradigm shift after stopping the game after the disastrous Liberty game. Figuring out how to stop the pass remains a work in progress and a big objective for the spring and pre-season.
 

ImperialOrange

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Would be curious numbers conference schedule Vs conference schedule. Holy Cross and WMU pumped up 2019 offense stats.

Defense defo improved yoy and, hopefully with bigs returning, will be somewhat or a force next season. Think offense needs to be better that either of the past 2 years for us to be truly dangerous Vs having a punchers chance though. With guys back healthy in key spots, young guys a year older in some, and few incoming that can bring the juice day 1 potential is there. Bleich alone brings us something new on oline as well as injury returns. TE and WR specifically have guys now and incoming with higher ceilings than whom the potentially step in for.

This season sucked but the cupboards aren't bare as has been the case multiple times over prior 2 decades
 

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