2022 Bracketology

[Powellfan]

First Bracketology from one of the big publications. IL is due to post theirs this week as well.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Penn vs. Duke

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(5) Virginia vs. Ohio State
(4) Yale vs. COLONIAL/Massachusetts

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Rutgers vs. IVY/Harvard
(2) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-AMERICA EAST/Binghamton

Last three included: Penn, Ohio State, Duke
First three on the outside: North Carolina, Jacksonville, Denver
Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

 

[orange79]

SNUBBED!

 

[SkyTopBus44]

Has a team ever gone from a #1 ranking to not making the tournament field two years later? Unbelievable. I hope help is on the way

 

[sutomcat]

First Bracketology from one of the big publications. IL is due to post theirs this week as well.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Penn vs. Duke

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(5) Virginia vs. Ohio State
(4) Yale vs. COLONIAL/Massachusetts

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Rutgers vs. IVY/Harvard
(2) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-AMERICA EAST/Binghamton

Last three included: Penn, Ohio State, Duke
First three on the outside: North Carolina, Jacksonville, Denver
Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

The ACC has two teams in, with Duke being one of the last 3 in? What?

 

[fieldystick]

First Bracketology from one of the big publications. IL is due to post theirs this week as well.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Penn vs. Duke

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(5) Virginia vs. Ohio State
(4) Yale vs. COLONIAL/Massachusetts

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Rutgers vs. IVY/Harvard
(2) Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-AMERICA EAST/Binghamton

Last three included: Penn, Ohio State, Duke
First three on the outside: North Carolina, Jacksonville, Denver
Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Atlantic Coast (2)

Patrick has Penn evaluated significantly lower than I do currently and a different AQ from the SoCon (Richmond while I have Jacksonville), but the rest is more or less the same with minor shuffling of destinations/etc.

Broad consensus right now it seems.

 

[fieldystick]

The ACC has two teams in, with Duke being one of the last 3 in? What?

ACC numbers are bad right now. I still think it will be three in at the end of the year after looking at everything more closely, but every ACC game in April will have a big impact on the bubble. It will move week to week based on the conference results.

I have Duke as the second ACC team in… and also the very last team in.

 

[fieldystick]

Has a team ever gone from a #1 ranking to not making the tournament field two years later? Unbelievable. I hope help is on the way

Albany’s plummet after 2018 is probably the biggest and quickest drop that I can think of.

They were #1 for stretches of that regular season and were the number 2 seed in that tournament. They have done nothing since then.

 

[Zack80]

I think it is most likely that the ACC will get 2 in, but they could still get 3 in. I also see some scenarios where they ACC would only get 1 in.

The UNC at Virginia game on Saturday looms big. UVa is likely to be without LaSalla and Moore. If UNC can win, it would pretty much put them on the same level as UVa for at-large consideration.

 

[fieldystick]

I think it is most likely that the ACC will get 2 in, but they could still get 3 in. I also see some scenarios where they ACC would only get 1 in.

The UNC at Virginia game on Saturday looms big. UVa is likely to be without LaSalla and Moore. If UNC can win, it would pretty much put them on the same level as UVa for at-large consideration.

Ivy League AQ+3
Big Ten AQ+2(?)
ACC 2

Who is your 8th in this scenario?

 

[Zack80]

Ivy League AQ+3
Big Ten AQ+2(?)
ACC 2

Who is your 8th in this scenario?

The Ivy league currently has 5 teams in the top 10 RPI, so a 5th Ivy league team.

 

[fieldystick]

The Ivy league currently has 5 teams in the top 10 RPI, so a 5th Ivy league team.

I think things will have to go a very specific way for them to get five. I don’t like projecting specific outcomes forward because I feel like it can colour what are meant to be impartial assessments of what has already happened. But I would personally be very surprised if Harvard gets in.

 

[Zack80]

Harvard has the other 4 top Ivy League teams to go, 3 of them on the road. They definitely need to beat one of them.

 

[Powellfan]

No surprise, no ‘Cuse.

 

[Zack80]

The IL bracket chooses UNC over Duke. I think that is how I would do it at the moment. Duke does have the head-to-head win, but UNC has more top 20 wins (4-3), a higher RPI, and doesn't have any outside of the top 20 losses while Duke has 3 such losses.
Of course, a lot more games to play, including another Duke-UNC match-up.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Men's Lacrosse Bracketology: The Curious Cases of Denver and Jacksonville

As good as they are, their NCAA tourney hopes likely come down to conference tournaments.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Towson-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Ohio State vs. Denver

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(5) Cornell vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Penn

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Rutgers vs. Harvard
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Binghamton

Last three in: Penn, Harvard, Denver

First three out: Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina

Moving in: Denver, Jacksonville, Towson

Moving out: Duke, UMass, Richmond

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Big East (2)

 

[fieldystick]

(8) Ohio State vs. Denver


Last three in: Denver

That's one way to clear up a travel headache that I had with mine. He has three likely unavoidable first round flights (Utah over Bingo). I had to work like hell on mine to end up with two. Figuring out the travel part in some kind of acceptable way is really hard right now.

 

[Powellfan]

 

[Zack80]

Where is Duke?
I imagine Yale dropped a few spots after losing to Brown, along with Cornell who lost to Army.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bracketology: How Penn Could Miss the Ivy Tournament and Still Make NCAAs

This week’s bracket projection carries with it a preemptive history lesson.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Towson-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Penn vs. Duke

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(5) Rutgers vs. Brown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Cornell vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(7) Virginia vs. Ohio State
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three in: Brown, Duke, Ohio State
First three out: North Carolina, Denver, Harvard

Moving in: Brown, Duke, Vermont
Moving out: Binghamton, Denver, Harvard

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), ACC (2)

 

[upperdeck]

Army would be a pretty good team to not get in the way things are breaking

 

[Zack80]

Those RPI rankings seem almost like a roulette wheel for teams on the bubble - where will they stop.

 

[Cuse All-In]

Bracketology: How Penn Could Miss the Ivy Tournament and Still Make NCAAs

This week’s bracket projection carries with it a preemptive history lesson.

www.usalaxmagazine.com

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Towson-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Penn vs. Duke

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(5) Rutgers vs. Brown
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Boston University

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Cornell vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville

Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(7) Virginia vs. Ohio State
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Last three in: Brown, Duke, Ohio State
First three out: North Carolina, Denver, Harvard

Moving in: Brown, Duke, Vermont
Moving out: Binghamton, Denver, Harvard

Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), ACC (2)

IL has an article today listing the RPIs for all 73 teams.

RPI is useful but can be still be full of inconsistencies and misleading results. It overvalues "wins" and doesn't seem to accurately address strength of schedule IMO. This is in part due to the structure of D1 lacrosse - short schedule with fewer games than big time sports, vastly different out of conference competition, huge differences between top and lower conferences (i.e. Ivy vs. MAAC) etc.

A couple of examples: I think most of us feel Notre Dame is a legit top team and should get in the dance but RPI "overvalues" their close losses etc. and puts them at 20. If they win out, it will help their cause. Also, the Bonnies have had some attention lately. They are at 40!! despite their wins being against teams ranked 54 and lower with Marist the exception at 42. They have lost both their games against Richmond and St. Joe's. To put in context, Michigan (45) and Albany (49) have lower RPIs??? These are excellent examples of the overvaluing of wins.

 

[Zack80]

Notre Dame is at #17. RPI just looks at wins and losses, not margin of victory.

I actually think MIchigan at #45 is a example of how poor the RPI is. MIchigan (7-6) does have those 6 wins against weak teams, which kills their RPI. The only one of those games that wasn't a blow out was against #53 Marquette, but margin of victory doesn't count in RPI. Michigan's other win was 18-8 of #29 Delaware and they lost 9-8 in ot at #32 PSU. They only lost 15-12 at #21 Hopkins, and by five to #17 ND and #15 Harvard. This past weekend, the lost by 1 to #6 Rutgers, and they got pasted by the Terps 20-12. When you put it all together, Michigan looks like the should be in the 30-35 region.

 

[Cuse All-In]

Notre Dame is at #17. RPI just looks at wins and losses, not margin of victory.

I actually think MIchigan at #45 is a example of how poor the RPI is. MIchigan (7-6) does have those 6 wins against weak teams, which kills their RPI. The only one of those games that wasn't a blow out was against #53 Marquette, but margin of victory doesn't count in RPI. Michigan's other win was 18-8 of #29 Delaware and they lost 9-8 in ot at #32 PSU. They only lost 15-12 at #21 Hopkins, and by five to #17 ND and #15 Harvard. This past weekend, the lost by 1 to #6 Rutgers, and they got pasted by the Terps 20-12. When you put it all together, Michigan looks like the should be in the 30-35 region.

Agreed. Margin of victory or loss is arguably important. Look at Cuse's last 2 games.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Inside Lacrosse Bracketology 2022 Second Look: The Curious Case of Jacksonville

Welcome to the Second Look at Bracketology for the 2022 season. There are 17 days until Selection Sunday.Check out IL’s latest RPI and

www.insidelacrosse.com