2022 Preseason FPI | Syracusefan.com

2022 Preseason FPI

GoSU96

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Confirms what we already know, team should be better, schedule is hard, looks like a struggle to get six wins.

There is offensive upside if the passing game improves and the OL can stay reasonably healthy.
 
We play 3 of the top 9 in 3 consecutive weeks, 2 on the road. Sounds like a fun stretch.

And it's bookended by #26 NC State, who is lower than I would have thought and #31 FSU, who is a little higher than I would have thought.

Need to win early. Can't ever rely on winning late. And the middle is a nightmare.
 

Confirms what we already know, team should be better, schedule is hard, looks like a struggle to get six wins.

There is offensive upside if the passing game improves and the OL can stay reasonably healthy.
Here are all our opponents and where we stand in this list...

Clemson 4
Notre Dame 5
Pittsburgh 9
NC State 26
Wake Forest 30
Florida State 31
Louisville 36
Purdue 44
Virginia 54
BC 59
Syracuse 62
UConn 130
Wagner NR

NC State and Wake seem about 10 spots too low.

FSU seems way too high, as does Louisville.

What is Virginia doing rated so high? That is also pretty nutty.

We have one of the biggest ranges for projected wins, presumably because we are expected to play in a lot of really close games.
 
So we play 6 straight games against teams rated 31 or higher. 8 teams rated 44 or higher.
Only UConn and Wagner are rated lower than us. I don't think it will be that way at the end of the season but just a brutal schedule.

Despite all of this I think we get 6 W's. I think our offense will be much more efficient along with improved specials.
 
Last edited:
Here are all our opponents and where we stand in this list...

Clemson 4
Notre Dame 5
Pittsburgh 9
NC State 26
Wake Forest 30
Florida State 31
Louisville 36
Purdue 44
Virginia 54
BC 59
Syracuse 62
UConn 130
Wagner NR

NC State and Wake seem about 10 spots too low.

FSU seems way too high, as does Louisville.

What is Virginia doing rated so high? That is also pretty nutty.

We have one of the biggest ranges for projected wins, presumably because we are expected to play in a lot of really close games.
Impossible to predict these things but usually only a couple to a few are far off or stray from the beaten path with these things. Id circle BC, Virginia, Purdue and FSU.
 
The computers are bully on Pitt, and I don't think there's anyway they can come close to replicating last year.
Maybe not. But, with the exception of Pickett (big loss, obviously), they return all of their all ACC players on both sides of the ball, and all 5 OL including 4 who are seniors. Their D should be even better than last year. They have a portal QB from USC (Slovis). If he plays well, Pitt might be better than last year.
 
Maybe not. But, with the exception of Pickett (big loss, obviously), they return all of their all ACC players on both sides of the ball, and all 5 OL including 4 who are seniors. Their D should be even better than last year. They have a portal QB from USC (Slovis). If he plays well, Pitt might be better than last year.
I get that. Just... didn't Pitt feel like a once-in-a-generation team last year?

Whipple and Brennan Marion are gone, as is Pickett. Offense is going to look different.
 
According to ESPN...

The projected win total is 4.8

There's a 30.4% chance of winning 6 games.


It will be interesting to see how other "experts" see 2022 unfolding for the Orange.


The 2022 schedule and the FPI for our opponents

FPI

36 Louisville
130 @ UConn
44 Purdue
54 Virginia
NR Wagner
26 NC State
4 @ Clemson
5 ND
9 @ Pitt
31 Fla State
30 @ Wake Forest
59 @ Boston College

Our FPI rating (62) is only better than the rating for two of our opponents (UConn and Wagner), so I'm not sure where they see 4.8 wins.


The ACC is tough this year. According to this rating, the ACC has the second highest average rating among the P5 conferences.

SEC 27.5
ACC 30.4
BIG 12 35.1
BIG 10 40.1
Pac 12 53.4



On a side note, in 2021 our record against the spread (ATS) as set weekly by "experts" was 8-4.


I don't know how well we are going to do next season, but I believe the program is headed in a good direction.
 
The computers are bully on Pitt, and I don't think there's anyway they can come close to replicating last year.
The Pitt QB played at a pretty good escape level.. Even in our game he probably saved 7-10 plays
 
According to ESPN...

The projected win total is 4.8

There's a 30.4% chance of winning 6 games.


It will be interesting to see how other "experts" see 2022 unfolding for the Orange.


The 2022 schedule and the FPI for our opponents

FPI

36 Louisville
130 @ UConn
44 Purdue
54 Virginia
NR Wagner
26 NC State
4 @ Clemson
5 ND
9 @ Pitt
31 Fla State
30 @ Wake Forest
59 @ Boston College

Our FPI rating (62) is only better than the rating for two of our opponents (UConn and Wagner), so I'm not sure where they see 4.8 wins.


The ACC is tough this year. According to this rating, the ACC has the second highest average rating among the P5 conferences.

SEC 27.5
ACC 30.4
BIG 12 35.1
BIG 10 40.1
Pac 12 53.4



On a side note, in 2021 our record against the spread (ATS) as set weekly by "experts" was 8-4.


I don't know how well we are going to do next season, but I believe the program is headed in a good direction.
I can't imagine the ACC being the second strongest conference when all is said and done, but interesting how bullish the FPI is on the conference. Wagner, U Conn, UVA, Purdue, BC and either FSU or Louisville is what I see as our best path to 6. and that isn't taking anyone lightly outside of Wagner and U Conn.
 
Not saying I disagree, but some people who have seen them scrimmage say they look solid again.
Pitt will be strong again. The transfer was huge for them. This is their year I feel in conference and will be double digit wins.

I've read Clemson is still having same issues as last year and their recruiting is starting to tail off a little (I'd kill for their classes though). They are probably and 8-9 win team.

BC with a healthy QB will be tough, probably 7-8 wins.

I think Ville lost a lot of tough games last year. Can they turn the corner? They will be fighting for six.

I think FSU is probably rated appropriate. They have a lot of talent. They'll be a 6-8 win team.

Purdue is undervalued I feel. They will be a dark horse in the Big 10.

NC State is good to go. Probably another 9 win season for them.

Wake is overvalued - they'll drop off.
 
I can't imagine the ACC being the second strongest conference when all is said and done, but interesting how bullish the FPI is on the conference. Wagner, U Conn, UVA, Purdue, BC and either FSU or Louisville is what I see as our best path to 6. and that isn't taking anyone lightly outside of Wagner and U Conn.
We were 2 or 3 last season by some measures. We didn’t have an elite playoff level team and that hurt league perception. Lots of avg or above avg, no real awful teams outside of Duke
 
Pitt will be strong again. The transfer was huge for them. This is their year I feel in conference and will be double digit wins.

I've read Clemson is still having same issues as last year and their recruiting is starting to tail off a little (I'd kill for their classes though). They are probably and 8-9 win team.

BC with a healthy QB will be tough, probably 7-8 wins.

I think Ville lost a lot of tough games last year. Can they turn the corner? They will be fighting for six.

I think FSU is probably rated appropriate. They have a lot of talent. They'll be a 6-8 win team.

Purdue is undervalued I feel. They will be a dark horse in the Big 10.

NC State is good to go. Probably another 9 win season for them.

Wake is overvalued - they'll drop off.
If Hafley gets to 7 it will be his first
 
Without losing Jurko last year, he'd have had seven
Without injuries a lot of coaches would have more wins, including Dino and ED - it is what it is.

Just making sure my man Haf doesn’t get too over inflated. Guys stock is always up but hasn’t even done as well as Dazzler.
 
Pitt will be strong again. The transfer was huge for them. This is their year I feel in conference and will be double digit wins.

I've read Clemson is still having same issues as last year and their recruiting is starting to tail off a little (I'd kill for their classes though). They are probably and 8-9 win team.

BC with a healthy QB will be tough, probably 7-8 wins.

I think Ville lost a lot of tough games last year. Can they turn the corner? They will be fighting for six.

I think FSU is probably rated appropriate. They have a lot of talent. They'll be a 6-8 win team.

Purdue is undervalued I feel. They will be a dark horse in the Big 10.

NC State is good to go. Probably another 9 win season for them.

Wake is overvalued - they'll drop off.
I know our offense was bad last year but 8 wins?
 
I know our offense was bad last year but 8 wins?
ND, Miami, NC State, South Carolina could all be losses for you. May get tripped up along the way by Syracuse, FSU, BC, or Louisville.

The invincibility aura has faded
 
ND, Miami, NC State, South Carolina could all be losses for you. May get tripped up along the way by Syracuse, FSU, BC, or Louisville.

The invincibility aura has faded
It is a tough schedule but we still have better talent than anyone else. It does crack me up that one substandard season has led to the belief that Clemson is done...
 
It is a tough schedule but we still have better talent than anyone else. It does crack me up that one substandard season has led to the belief that Clemson is done...
It hits you quick… trust us, we have seen it.

(For the record I still think you’re the league favorite and wouldn’t pick against you.)
 
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