2023 Bracketology

[Powellfan]

Figure it's helpful to have one thread for all bracketology discussion.

Chris takes a first look.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Figure it's helpful to have one thread for all bracketology discussion.

Chris takes a first look.

Does he really think Penn State wins the BIG 10? Come on

 

[Hoo's That]

Maryland #6 and Virginia #7? Much as I'd love to have us play Cornell ...

 

[Zack80]

Maryland #6 and Virginia #7? Much as I'd love to have us play Cornell ...

With UVa beating ND 15-10 that bracketology has gone down the toilet.

UVa was looking like #1 today.

Of course, UVa usually does poorly against Duke, and Duke is coming up Friday at 5pm in C-ville (on ESPNU)

 

[Powellfan]

 

[PhatOrange]

Syracuse's worst loss is UNC but UNC is considered to be Denver's and Ohio States best win. ?

If Syracuse beats Princeton they are squarely on the bubble. If they beat Princeton and 1 more of Duke, UVA, or UNC I think they're in. Might need two upsets but I have to they're better than Pedo State and Penn at 8-7

 

[nyclax]

Syracuse's worst loss is UNC but UNC is considered to be Denver's and Ohio States best win. ?

If Syracuse beats Princeton they are squarely on the bubble. If they beat Princeton and 1 more of Duke, UVA, or UNC I think they're in. Might need two upsets but I have to they're better than Pedo State and Penn at 8-7

unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion

 

[wgdsr]

unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion

maybe, maybe not. princeton has picked it up and look like the second best ivy right now.

acc has 6 ooc losses and every other conference is in at least the mid-teens, and there aren't a lot of l's left for acc teams. that's a bigger skew than even the ivy last year, and they barely played any acc and b1g schools. people are gonna be surprised methinks at how rpi runs after the season is over. and for sos, the games after top 10 rpi games will be dropped. right now for cuse, only one of those is.

 

[nyclax]

maybe, maybe not. princeton has picked it up and look like the second best ivy right now.

acc has 6 ooc losses and every other conference is in at least the mid-teens, and there aren't a lot of l's left for acc teams. that's a bigger skew than even the ivy last year, and they barely played any acc and b1g schools. people are gonna be surprised methinks at how rpi runs after the season is over. and for sos, the games after top 10 rpi games will be dropped. right now for cuse, only one of those is.

i agree they look like #2 in the ivy right now but the math isn't in their favor. princeton is at 24 right now and if they lose to cuse they'll be 4-5 and drop at least a few spots in the rpi, no? then they have to play dartmouth (25) and harvard (32) before cornell. winning those doesn't do much for them. the chance that princeton can lose to syracuse and still end up in the top 20 rpi seem less than 50-50 to me but who knows i'm no mathematician. the comment was "if syracuse beats princeton they are squarely on the bubble" and that just doesn't check out even if princeton ends up a top 20 win

 

[PhatOrange]

unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion

The ACC has teams ranked #1, 2 and 3. Syracuse gets a shot at 2 of them, plus UNC at 9 and Princeton.

Syracuse's 5 losses, unfortunately, are to #1, #2, #5, #6 and #9. Has anyone else played 5 top 10 teams? (and Cuse still has a winning record.)

If CUSE beats #15 Princeton and #9 UNC it's not unreasonable at all to see them get in.


This early bracket prediction makes some big guess. Like Hopkins to win the Big10. They could frankly lose their final 3 games. Penn State marked safe at 6-3 could lose their final 3 and finish 6-6. Lots of jockeying to be done.

I don't know how the metrics work, have never looked into it, but SOS must be based the inflated top 20 rankings this season. The top 20 poll this year is frankly a bit of a joke. You have teams ranked that are 4-4 (3), 5-4 (1), 5-5 (1)

Lots is going to change.

I don't think a mid major at large takes a bid this year.

 

[PhatOrange]

i agree they look like #2 in the ivy right now but the math isn't in their favor. princeton is at 24 right now and if they lose to cuse they'll be 4-5 and drop at least a few spots in the rpi, no? then they have to play dartmouth (25) and harvard (32) before cornell. winning those doesn't do much for them. the chance that princeton can lose to syracuse and still end up in the top 20 rpi seem less than 50-50 to me but who knows i'm no mathematician. the comment was "if syracuse beats princeton they are squarely on the bubble" and that just doesn't check out even if princeton ends up a top 20 win

Dartmouth though is a flimsy 6-2 but still plays Yale (ranked), Princeton (ranked), Penn (ranked) and Brown. Lots gonna change.

My only takeaway really is that the top 20 should just be a top 10. I think Syracuse would beat most every team 10-20.

 

[wgdsr]

unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion

i agree they look like #2 in the ivy right now but the math isn't in their favor. princeton is at 24 right now and if they lose to cuse they'll be 4-5 and drop at least a few spots in the rpi, no? then they have to play dartmouth (25) and harvard (32) before cornell. winning those doesn't do much for them. the chance that princeton can lose to syracuse and still end up in the top 20 rpi seem less than 50-50 to me but who knows i'm no mathematician. the comment was "if syracuse beats princeton they are squarely on the bubble" and that just doesn't check out even if princeton ends up a top 20 win

you also said they have to win 3 of 4. making assessments on rpi, etc. now is fruitless, and bubble guesses after last year will be just that. p'ton's 50% rpi component from their ivies played already is worse than the 3 they will play, the latter have better records. not counting an ivy tournament game or 2.

syracuse's sos so far is over 30. that's 3/4 of rpi. my guess, they finish the year in the top 10 sos.

rutgers' best win last year was #14 tosu, and they were a ~6 seed. who knows what the committee will do. there is a lot left to play, and it's skewed to conference play. and that does nothing but boost acc teams this year. maybe by a lot.

 

[nyclax]

The ACC has teams ranked #1, 2 and 3. Syracuse gets a shot at 2 of them, plus UNC at 9 and Princeton.

Syracuse's 5 losses, unfortunately, are to #1, #2, #5, #6 and #9. Has anyone else played 5 top 10 teams? (and Cuse still has a winning record.)

If CUSE beats #15 Princeton and #9 UNC it's not unreasonable at all to see them get in.


This early bracket prediction makes some big guess. Like Hopkins to win the Big10. They could frankly lose their final 3 games. Penn State marked safe at 6-3 could lose their final 3 and finish 6-6. Lots of jockeying to be done.

I don't know how the metrics work, have never looked into it, but SOS must be based the inflated top 20 rankings this season. The top 20 poll this year is frankly a bit of a joke. You have teams ranked that are 4-4 (3), 5-4 (1), 5-5 (1)

Lots is going to change.

I don't think a mid major at large takes a bid this year.

you don't get credit for losing to good teams except as it shows up in the RPI. and the orange's RPI isn't where it needs to be right now. losing to those top 10 teams hasn't done a whole lot for them. they needed to win one or two of them.

princeton's #15 poll ranking is irrelevant. they are 24 in the rpi. they need to end up being top 20 for it to count as a quality win for syracuse. if they finish 21 in rpi, the committee won't care. it'll do nothing for the orange. it's possible princeton finishes top 20 but not a guarantee.

the early bracket projection makes guesses largely based on RPI which historically has been the most predictive indicator. for a long time the committee followed it almost religiously. last year, they changed things up a little bit. my guess? they go back to relying on RPI. but that's a guess like anyone else. maybe it will be chaos.

even in the event of chaos, cuse needs more than the princeton win. there are lots of teams with better RPIs and more quality wins ahead of the orange. and that's before any bid steals. the bubble on selection sunday could be a lot smaller than the bubble today. what if, i don't know, brown goes on a crazy run and wins the ivy league AQ? cornell bumps down to an at-large slot and takes a bid from some other hopeful.

you won't like hearing this but cuse's resume today is about the same as dartmouth's. similar RPIs, both teams are 6-0 against teams outside the top 20 (meaning no "bad losses") but also don't have any quality wins.

fieldystick's last two teams in right now are penn and unc. both have top 10 RPIs and a top 10 win (unc over hopkins, penn over georgetown). that's the kind of resume cuse would be up against on the bubble and they are already behind where they need to be

 

[fieldystick]

even in the event of chaos, cuse needs more than the princeton win.

you won't like hearing this but cuse's resume today is about the same as dartmouth's. similar RPIs, both teams are 6-0 against teams outside the top 20 (meaning no "bad losses") but also don't have any quality wins.

fieldystick's last two teams in right now are penn and unc. both have top 10 RPIs and a top 10 win (unc over hopkins, penn over georgetown). that's the kind of resume cuse would be up against on the bubble and they are already behind where they need to be

My opinion on Syracuse's ultimate fate is as follows:

If Cuse beats either of the RPI top 5 teams (Duke/UVA) and wins any one other game to finish 8-7 and above .500, I think that's probably going to get in.

If Cuse beats UNC and Princeton, I think Syracuse is probably in the bubble conversation at least, but I think it will probably be bubble out.

-

Your comparison to Dartmouth is a good one, nyclax. The reason that I have decided to include Syracuse on my list every week so far but have left Dartmouth out twice now is because the Orange have the potential to drastically change their standing with the games that they have left ahead of them. I do not like to give the impression that teams are appearing "from nowhere" when I can help it. It's also the reason that I include teams that are one win under .500 on my chart (e.g., Yale this week).

 

[fieldystick]

This early bracket prediction makes some big guess. Like Hopkins to win the Big10. They could frankly lose their final 3 games. Penn State marked safe at 6-3 could lose their final 3 and finish 6-6.

I don't project games that haven't happened yet. AQs are awarded to current conference leaders. If no one is leading - whether because no conference games have been played yet or a tie that can't be broken - I defer to the media poll (i.e., the consensus of "experts", not my own opinion). This is basically the only reason I include the media poll in my post every week when it has absolutely nothing to do with selection criteria.

I use the safe category to mean that a team can lose their next game and remain in the tournament field. Safe does not mean lock, although I expect to move the winner of JHU/PSU next week to lock status.

 

[Zack80]

My one criticism of your presentation is that you pick conference winners, even though these will be decided by tournaments and are not sure things, and don't evaluate these team's at-large status - for Cornell, Hopkins, Georgetown, and Army.

 

[fieldystick]

My one criticism of your presentation is that you pick conference winners, even though these will be decided by tournaments and are not sure things, and don't evaluate these team's at-large status - for Cornell, Hopkins, Georgetown, and Army.

Fair criticism. I sometimes include them when we get to conference tourney week, when I feel it is important to show where a team stands if they don't get the AQ, but I usually exclude for brevity on that front. I will reconsider this position.

I do evaluate all teams for at-larges, even though I exclude current AQs from the table. Usually, I think placement for the excluded is pretty intuitive, but I realize that might just be that I have looked at this so much on Sunday and made the table myself that was clouding my perspective of that it was clear as it was.

The full order this week with current relevant AQs re-inserted was:
Duke
Virginia
Notre Dame
(Cornell)
Maryland
(Johns Hopkins)
Penn State
Loyola
Pennsylvania
(Georgetown)
(Army)
North Carolina
--- cut line ---
Yale*
Villanova
Denver
Ohio State
Rutgers
Michigan
etc

 

[Powellfan]

Syracuse is included for the sake of thoroughness. The Orange do have the benefit of opportunities, closing with Princeton, North Carolina, Virginia and Duke.

Annapolis, Md.
(1) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Albany, N.Y.
(5) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) IVY/Cornell vs. ATLANTIC 10/Massachusetts

Albany, N.Y.
(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Penn

Annapolis, Md.
(7) Penn State vs. Loyola
(2) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Last three included: North Carolina, Penn, Loyola

First three on the outside: Ohio State, Rutgers, Villanova
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)

 

[fieldystick]

Mid-game is not the time to worry about this for Cuse fans, but I want it on the record here:

I strongly disagree with the notion that the Princeton announcers have presented that Syracuse needs to win out to have a *possibility* at an at-large.

 

[Zack80]

The Princeton win didn't seem to help Syracuse much as far as RPI goes

RPI – D1 Men – Lacrosse Reference

lacrossereference.com

It tends to look like Syracuse would need to win 2 of their last 3 to have a decent shot at making it

 

[wgdsr]

Mid-game is not the time to worry about this for Cuse fans, but I want it on the record here:

I strongly disagree with the notion that the Princeton announcers have presented that Syracuse needs to win out to have a *possibility* at an at-large.

i'm just glad they broadcast games, and no, they're not mathemeticians. any 2 wins and they're in the discussion. pick off uva and duke and they're bubble in.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Yea i think they win 2 out of last 3 their most def discussion. But depending how other teams do or fall could be out or in base on that. If they were to win all 3 they are surely in no doubt in my mind. Would help also if vermont can start getting some wins n move into ranks at end. But cuse def have to win 2 of next 3 to have shot.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

DIVISION I SELECTION CRITERIA:
The committee will utilize the following criteria to select and seed teams:
• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.
• Input from the regional advisory committee (comprised of lacrosse coaches from all AQ conferences).


The last item is interesting. ACC coaches not included? Is that how Harvard gets in over ND last year?

 

[Powellfan]

Different way of looking at things. Kind of interesting that so many Ivy League teams are included in the work to do category. Surprised that so many are in discussion at this point. Obviously SU has work to do. I agree with those who say they need to win two of their last three. If they do that I think they have a good shot. Easier said than done of course.

 

[fieldystick]

DIVISION I SELECTION CRITERIA:
The committee will utilize the following criteria to select and seed teams:
• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.
• Input from the regional advisory committee (comprised of lacrosse coaches from all AQ conferences).


The last item is interesting. ACC coaches not included? Is that how Harvard gets in over ND last year?

Different way of looking at things. Kind of interesting that so many Ivy League teams are included in the work to do category. Surprised that so many are in discussion at this point. Obviously SU has work to do. I agree with those who say they need to win two of their last three. If they do that I think they have a good shot. Easier said than done of course.

Going to reply to two at once to not clutter everything.


DMVCuseLax

I noticed that wording a few weeks ago when I was looking through the D1 manual for the 2023 selection committee. I did not remember that being like that last year, but I will check 2022 again to see if it is indeed a change in wording.

Either way, the ACC is still included by proxy through Breschi who is one of the selection committee members.


Powellfan

Keep in mind that this was last week before Cornell and Penn lost, but there is audio of me arguing that there was still a bat**** scenario where the IL got 4 bids. That was like a 1% chance, but I constructed it to show that a 3 bid Ivy League was still well within the realm of possibility. Cornell and Penn losing to teams outside the NCAA at-large hunt hurt both of those scenarios, quite a bit, so I think the likelihood has decreased of a 3 bid IL. However, I will say, all of you have seen my analysis of Yale tracks way higher than polling opinion of the team. I am drafting tomorrow's bracketology right now, and Yale is strongly in consideration for the #8 seed.

The ELO simulations are knocking Syracuse very badly because they are overwhelmingly simulating that Syracuse loses those games. I wouldn't worry too much about its treatment of Syracuse's chances.