8 teams still in play for a #1 seed | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

8 teams still in play for a #1 seed

Alsacs

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I disagree, there is still almost a 4th of the season left. If you lose 4 of the last six or 5 of 8 it should be considered as much as games in November and December.

Do you think Wichita St should be locked into a 1 seed even if they lose one or 2 games?
Yeah because the MVC being a 1 bid league is the same thing as a BCS league. Wichita State has 1 win over a definite NCAA Tournament team @St. Louis. Their next best 5 wins are @Alabama, Tennessee, DePaul/BYU in Kansas City, and @Indiana State. Yeah that is same as Minnesota, California, Baylor-Maui, @St. John's, Indiana, Villanova, Duke, Pitt x2.

We assuming we have 0 What losses we are a lock for a 1 seed because our body of work. Wichita State shouldn't be a 1 seed if they go undefeated if the committee actually goes by their mantra of who have you played and beaten.
 

Alsacs

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I realize the OOC was awful, but if UVA finishes 17-1 and wins the ACC tourney, it would seem they'd be deserving of consideration. I think even then they'd max out at 2 but its close.
UVA has 0% of being a 1 seed. They beat nobody in the non-conference except SMU. Lost at home to Wisconsin, and VCU. Lost @ UW-Green Bay(their HC's alma mater the reason for the game), @Tennessee by like 30 points. They could run the rest of the season before the Tournament and their max seed would probably be a 2 and that is only if they beat Syracuse, and both Syracuse/Duke in the ACC Tournament.
I think UVA ends up 4 seed with a chance at a 3 seed.
 

Garbs

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No because Wichita State isnt in a power conference. They almost need to win out for a 1 seed, and that is understandable.

What is not understandable is how it could even be possible that Duke leap frogs us for a 1 seed, barring us losing out (not happening) and Duke winning out (not happening)
my point is, you think we should be a lock now when we have at least 8 more games left, aka a fourth of the season
 

HarrisonJBounel

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I realize the OOC was awful, but if UVA finishes 17-1 and wins the ACC tourney, it would seem they'd be deserving of consideration. I think even then they'd max out at 2 but its close.

If UVA did that, esp if they beat us in the ACCT (meaning they beat us twice), they would not only be deserving, they would be a lock. Period.
 

jsshap

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UVA has 0% of being a 1 seed. They beat nobody in the non-conference except SMU. Lost at home to Wisconsin, and VCU. Lost @ UW-Green Bay(their HC's alma mater the reason for the game), @Tennessee by like 30 points. They could run the rest of the season before the Tournament and their max seed would probably be a 2 and that is only if they beat Syracuse, and both Syracuse/Duke in the ACC Tournament.
I think UVA ends up 4 seed with a chance at a 3 seed.

If they were to finish 17-1 in conference and win the ACC tourney, meaning they would have won about 18 games in a row (most of them in fairly dominating fashion) with at least 2 wins against SU/Duke, they are not getting worse than a 2, period, regardless of whether they beat both SU and Duke in the tourney.
 

cuseinseattle

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Really the only team that could take the #1 seed from us is Duke. If we lose at Duke and at UVA and to someone else then lose in the semi-final of the ACC tourney or something and Duke wins out they would probably get it over us but that is it. Florida is going to lose at Kentucky this weekend and will have 3 losses. We beat Nova by double digits and they lost to Creighton the other good team in the conference by 50 points. Duke has lost 5 times this year. They lost to Clemson for christ sake. If we don't lose 4 times, two of them being to Duke (at Cameron, ACC Tourney) we are the #1 seed.
 

Alsacs

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If they were to finish 17-1 in conference and win the ACC tourney, meaning they would have won about 18 games in a row (most of them in fairly dominating fashion) with at least 2 wins against SU/Duke, they are not getting worse than a 2, period, regardless of whether they beat both SU and Duke in the tourney.
I said if UVA goes 17-1 and wins the ACC Tournament then their max seed is a 2.

They beat NOBODY but SMU in the non-conference. Their best conferences hypothetically would be Syracuse, @Pitt, North Carolina, Maryland x2.

That is not anything special and would behind Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Wichita State, Michigan State, Villanova, Duke.

Winning the ACC Tournament would likely bump them to a 2 or 3 seed depending on whom they beat. Tournament resumes look at an entire season not just conference play. The ACC is not the top rated conference either its probably 3rd best. I think UVA could reach the Final Four, but they aren't going to be a 2 seed unless they win every game until Selection Sunday.
 

jncuse

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28-3 and a win in the ACC tourney locks up a 1 seed in the east. That I can guarantee.

I agreed, but I can see 1 fairly unlikely, yet within the realm of possibility scenario that catches us:

Wichita St, Duke, and Florida all win out.

Syracuse with 3 losses vs Duke with 5 losses is a toss up
Syracuse with 3 losses vs Florida with 2 losses is a toss up.
If we end with 3 losses Villanova is not a threat.

Even if they all win out (not likely), we can win the discussion against 1 of them.

So I put 3 losses at 98%+ likelihood of getting a #1 seed.

I think our only real threat to MSG is Duke. I'm not going to recreate the post from a few weeks back I had with Alsacs.

But if we lose 3 and they lose 5, its a 50/50 discussion
If we lose 4 and they lose 6, its a 50/50 discussion.

Losing 4 is getting less and less likely, and asking Duke to win out through ACC final is tough for them to do.
 

cuseinseattle

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I feel like a loss to anyone but us for Duke eliminates them from the 1 seed line

If Duke loses to us they have no shot at a 1 seed. They cannot lose another game all year period. They already have 5 losses.
 

Alsacs

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Really the only team that could take the #1 seed from us is Duke. If we lose at Duke and at UVA and to someone else then lose in the semi-final of the ACC tourney or something and Duke wins out they would probably get it over us but that is it. Florida is going to lose at Kentucky this weekend and will have 3 losses. We beat Nova by double digits and they lost to Creighton the other good team in the conference by 50 points. Duke has lost 5 times this year. They lost to Clemson for christ sake. If we don't lose 4 times, two of them being to Duke (at Cameron, ACC Tourney) we are the #1 seed.
Duke won't be taking a 1 seed from us. They would be taking a 1 seed from Wichita State, Arizona, Florida unless Syracuse has What losses. If we go 16-2 in the ACC Duke can't pass us on the S-Curve. Their non-conference resume is thin its Michigan, UCLA, and Alabama. If Syracuse goes 16-2 we will be the 1 seed in the East 100% barring a major injury.
 

Knicks411

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We shouldn't have a 1 seed locked up at 24-0. But we're more locked into a 1 seed than any other team. Still a month before selection sunday, a lot can happen
 

jncuse

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I feel like a loss to anyone but us for Duke eliminates them from the 1 seed line

I'm not sure. I think they need that huge win over us more to justify jumping us.

Let's say it was FSU and Syracuse. I think it would be better for them to beat us, and lose to FSU, rather then vice versa.

I almost view any loss is massive for them... they need us to lose 4 if they lose one more game, IMO.
 

jncuse

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Duke?!

No reason for Duke to be in the #1 discussion as of now. They can get there if they win out and other stuff happens, but as of now it is just dumb to place them in the discussion.
 

jsshap

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I said if UVA goes 17-1 and wins the ACC Tournament then their max seed is a 2.

They beat NOBODY but SMU in the non-conference. Their best conferences hypothetically would be Syracuse, @Pitt, North Carolina, Maryland x2.

That is not anything special and would behind Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Wichita State, Michigan State, Villanova, Duke.

Winning the ACC Tournament would likely bump them to a 2 or 3 seed depending on whom they beat. Tournament resumes look at an entire season not just conference play. The ACC is not the top rated conference either its probably 3rd best. I think UVA could reach the Final Four, but they aren't going to be a 2 seed unless they win every game until Selection Sunday.


I agree with the last sentence and it was my point. They have a better chance of a 1 seed (10-15%) then a 3 seed (0%) if they win every game until selection sunday, but, yes, a likely 2. I think everyone is aware of what constitutes a tourney resume.
 

Dave85

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I feel like a loss to anyone but us for Duke eliminates them from the 1 seed line

It depends on who it is and if it's away or at home.
 

Alsacs

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Syracuse is 24-0 if they take care of their 3 home games which aren't locks, but I feel good we should win. NC State, Boston College, Georgia Tech that is 27 wins.
4 road games @Duke, @Maryland, @Virginia, @Florida State. If we take care of Maryland and Florida State which won't be easy, but I expect we should be able to out-talent those teams of which neither has played against our zone we should get to 29 wins. Duke and Virginia are both tough say we lose both that 29-2.

We are a lock for a 1 seed at 29-2 and barring injury would be either the 1 or 2 overall 1 seed. Win 1 game at the ACC Tournament you are 30-2 and the East is over no matter if Duke win the ACC Tournament.
 

Alsacs

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I agree with the last sentence and it was my point. They have a better chance of a 1 seed (10-15%) then a 3 seed (0%) if they win every game until selection sunday, but, yes, a likely 2. I think everyone is aware of what constitutes a tourney resume.
I disagree with this they could be a 3 seed if they beat Syracuse at home and lost at Clemson. Then made the ACC Tournament Final and lost. I can see honestly no way Virginia is a 1 seed even if they ran the table thru Selection barring MAJOR MAJOR upsets. Syracuse and Arizona look like close to locks. I don't think Wichita State is going to lose a game in the regular season, and Kansas/Michigan State/Florida all have better resumes than UVA.
 

jncuse

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Looking at the Bracket Matrix here are the teams that are potential 1-2-3rd opponents:

Projected 16 seeds

Davidson
Utah State
Southern
VMI
NC Central

As we play in Buffalo we are guaranteed to see a play-in team if we are a #1 seed. They try to put play in teams's in pods close to Dayton, which Buffalo is.

So it will probably be a team worse than those. And Seth Davis will stall call for an upset.
 

Garbs

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If Duke loses to us they have no shot at a 1 seed. They cannot lose another game all year period. They already have 5 losses.
and 3 of those losses are to 1-2-3 in RPI and none of them at home
 

jncuse

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I realize the OOC was awful, but if UVA finishes 17-1 and wins the ACC tourney, it would seem they'd be deserving of consideration. I think even then they'd max out at 2 but its close.

I'm not doing the numbers or resume comparison, but on the surface I think it would be tough for Virginia to win out and pass us with 3 losses. 4 losses, they may.
 

pfister1

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I'd have to think with that, then the 2s should be 5) Duke 6) Michigan St. 7) Kansas 8) Villanova

Love this mock selection exercise, but we all know there is still some movement that can happen between now and Selection Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil


Agreed, its way premature to get too entrenched on a position on anyone's chances at this point. We still have 7 games plus the ACC tourney to play, others are similar.

That said, I think we have a huge lead on the field for one of the four 1 seeds right now. Just because they are talking about 8 teams, doesn't mean there are 8 teams with a realistic chance. The whole point of the exercise that they are going through now is different than the one they will actually go through. I think there are more teams in the discussion because the point is to have a discussion and there is no discussion unless you include those teams. If they were picking the tournament today, there might be only 5 teams in the discussion. Duke, KU and Michigan State have too many losses to be considered when you have 3 teams with one or fewer and Florida and Nova who have put forth pretty good resumes to this point.

I also think Arizona is going to have to hold on for dear life, because people are going to evaluate their post Ashley-injury performance differently than their pre-injury achievements. If they lose three or possibly even two more, they might be out as a 1 because of the less than supremely challenging PAC-12 schedule.

I also wonder what happens if we drop two games between now and the end of the regular season - with those losses being @UVA and any other game on the schedule....In that situation UVA could finish in front of us for the ACC title, would our #1 be in danger to them?

The point is there is a lot of season still to unfold. It feels like we're almost there, but typically a lot happens over the last 2 to 3 weeks as the season becomes a real grind.
 
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jncuse

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If they were to finish 17-1 in conference and win the ACC tourney, meaning they would have won about 18 games in a row (most of them in fairly dominating fashion) with at least 2 wins against SU/Duke, they are not getting worse than a 2, period, regardless of whether they beat both SU and Duke in the tourney.

Yes that would certainly be a #2, but probably not at MSG. The question would be if Syracuse did enough bad down the stretch to pass them and steal MSG I think SU would need to have 4 losses.
 

Marsh01

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Agreed, its way premature to get too entrenched on a position on anyone's chances at this point. We still have 7 games plus the ACC tourney to play, others are similar.

That said, I think we have a huge lead on the field for one of the four 1 seeds right now. Just because they are talking about 8 teams, doesn't mean there are 8 teams with a realistic chance. The whole point of the exercise that they are going through now is different than the one they will actually go through. I think there are more teams in the discussion because the point is to have a discussion and there is no discussion unless you include those teams. If they were picking the tournament today, there might be only 5 teams in the discussion. Duke, KU and Michigan State have too many losses to be considered when you have 3 teams with one or fewer and Florida and Nova who have put forth pretty good resumes to this point.

I also think Arizona is going to have to hold on for dear life, because people are going to evaluate their post Ashley-injury performance differently than their pre-injury achievements. If they lose two or possibly even one more, they might be out as a 1 because of the less than supremely challenging PAC-12 schedule.

I also wonder what happens if we drop two games between now and the end of the regular season - with those losses being @UVA and any other game on the schedule...In that situation UVA could finish in front of us for the ACC title, would our #1 be in danger to them?

The point is there is a lot of season still to unfold. It feels like were almost there, but typically a lot happens over the last 2 to 3 weeks as the season becomes a real grind.

I dont see UVA getting the nod over us at all. We have been a top 2 team for 2 months.
 

jncuse

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Duke won't be taking a 1 seed from us. They would be taking a 1 seed from Wichita State, Arizona, Florida unless Syracuse has What losses. If we go 16-2 in the ACC Duke can't pass us on the S-Curve. Their non-conference resume is thin its Michigan, UCLA, and Alabama. If Syracuse goes 16-2 we will be the 1 seed in the East 100% barring a major injury.

If we go 16-2, Duke wins out (including the ACC tourney), its a 50/50 discussion.

I sort of few our magic number as 1 right now. We need to win one of Duke or Virginia or Duke needs one slip up.
 

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