8 teams still in play for a #1 seed

[Alsacs]

and 3 of those losses are to 1-2-3 in RPI and none of them at home

Duke's resume is thin its best wins are Michigan, Virginia, @Pitt, UCLA-N, NC State. If they beat Syracuse, North Carolina x2, Maryland that would move them up to 2 line. They need to win out to even be considered as a 1 seed. 1 more loss in the regular season and they are going to be a 2 seed. If Duke had beat one of Kansas or Arizona this race would really close. However, they didn't and their regular season schedule isn't tougher than Syracuse's.
Duke home/homes Wake Forest, Syracuse, North Carolina, Georgia Tech.
Syracuse home/homes Miami, Boston College, Duke, Pitt
That is pretty equal. UNC=Pitt, Wake=Miami, Boston College=Georgia Tech.

Syracuse road ACC games
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Miami
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Duke
Maryland
Virginia
Florida State

Duke road ACC games
Notre Dame
Clemson
Miami
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Boston College
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

So its Virginia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Florida State vs. Notre Dame, Clemson, North Carolina, Georgia Tech.

Since Maryland, Virginia, Florida State are 3 of the upper half of the conference versus Clemson and North Carolina. Syracuse in the eyes of the committee will likely have the perception of a tougher ACC schedule and this is assuming Duke ends up 15-3 to make the ACC Tournament worth anything. As Duke's non-conference schedule is going to be perceived as inferior to Syracuse's as well since the only good wins are against Michigan, Alabama, UCLA while Syracuse will have Villanova, California, Minnesota, Baylor, @St. John's, and Indiana on its plate.

Duke's losses to Notre Dame and Clemson are why they have no chance at a 1 seed barring them winning out.

 

[Marsh01]

I think you need to look at it separately.

Have we clinched Buffalo/MSG? I say yes we have already and given we have 3 games we should win left on the schedule even if we lose to Duke and Virginia we are still ok.

Have we clinched a #1 seed? Almost. 29-2 and an ACC quarters win does that

 

[Alsacs]

If we go 16-2, Duke wins out (including the ACC tourney), its a 50/50 discussion.

I sort of few our magic number as 1 right now. We need to win one of Duke or Virginia or Duke needs one slip up.

I disagree, but understand your mindset. I think 16-2 ITS OVER barring an SU injury even if Duke runs the table.

 

[pfister1]

I dont see UVA getting the nod over us at all. We have been a top 2 team for 2 months.

Probably right. As I read more of the discussion and the arguments made I feel like the risk of losing the ACC regular season to them is higher than the risk of losing our seed to them, which is different than them causing us to lose our seed to someone else.

 

[Alsacs]

Also jncuse
Syracuse 16-2 and a clear superior non-conference resume aren't going to be overtaken by Duke going 15-3 and winning the ACC Tournament even if they beat us 2 of 3. The 1 game and superior non-conference gives Syracuse a slightly superior resume if the Committee looks at an entire resume. Duke had no business losing @Notre Dame without Jerian Grant.

The ACC Tournament would have to include wins over Syracuse and Virginia/North Carolina to even cause a debate in the committee room IMO.

We have MSG locked up barring any What losses which are possible.

 

[Knicks411]

I think you need to look at it separately.

Have we clinched Buffalo/MSG? I say yes we have already and given we have 3 games we should win left on the schedule even if we lose to Duke and Virginia we are still ok.

Have we clinched a #1 seed? Almost. 29-2 and an ACC quarters win does that

I think we have pretty much clinched Buffalo, not as sure on MSG yet

 

[TDTOrange]

I disagree, but understand your mindset. I think 16-2 ITS OVER barring an SU injury even if Duke runs the table.

Playing "Devil's" advocate (see what I did there?), if Duke wins out which means beating us in Durham and wins the ACC tournament, potentially over us again, wouldn't that give them enough juice to claim a #1 over us?

EDIT: I see you addressed above. I still think it'll be a pretty interesting conversation in the room given what their SOS #'s will look like.

 

[Garbs]

I think we have pretty much clinched Buffalo, not as sure on MSG yet

if we are a 1-2-3 seed we will be in the east, I think the only trouble we will have is if we are on the same seed line as nova/duke

 

[Knicks411]

if we are a 1-2-3 seed we will be in the east, I think the only trouble we will have is if we are on the same seed line as nova/duke

I'm just a tad worried about Duke passing us on the S-Curve and then kicking us out of MSG. I don't think that is very likely, but I don't think it is quite as locked up as Buffalo is.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Have you watched them this year? It is the anti Wisconsin, which is why they have struggled more than usual in Big 10 play

Yeah, I would rather play Wisconsin than ISU. Cyclones have more weapons and are number one in the country in assists. Pulling out that 3OT game in Stillwater was all I needed to know about them.

 

[jncuse]

I think you need to look at it separately.

Have we clinched Buffalo/MSG? I say yes we have already and given we have 3 games we should win left on the schedule even if we lose to Duke and Virginia we are still ok.

Have we clinched a #1 seed? Almost. 29-2 and an ACC quarters win does that

I disagree that we have clinched MSG.

Assume:
Duke wins out, and is 29-5. 2 quality victories in ACC tourney.
We lose at Duke, Virginia, and in ACC tourney to end 30-3.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html to help with projected resumes.

Top 50 Performance / Quality of Victories

Top 25
Syracuse 3-2 or 3-3
Duke 6-3 or 5-3

Top 50
Syracuse 7-3
Duke 8-3

Number wise its an advantage to Duke, but IMO they would dig deeper into the victories.

a) OOC Wins Duke (against tourney teams) - Michigan, N UCLA
OOC Syracuse (against tourney teams) - Villanova, N Minnesota, N Cal

Advantage Syracuse - Villanova and Michigan is pretty close to a wash. Syracuse has one more neutral victory against a tourney team, and also has a couple over NIT teams in St. John's and Baylor.

I don't think Duke gets punished much for 2 losses as they were away from home floor and 1/2 seed types -- type of games committee wants to encourage teams to play in OOC so they may not punish.

ACC Quality Wins - Duke Virginia, at Pitt, Syracuse + Syracuse and/or Virginia
Syracuse - Duke, Pitt, at Pitt.

If we take out Pitt, and leave the elite in, its an even bigger advantage for ACC.

Overall, the committee goes with Duke for win quality. The extra number of elite wins in the ACC, more than offset one extra win vs a 10 seed type team and some NIT wins.


Sub 50 Losses
Syracuse - None
Duke - Notre Dame, at Clemson (bubble team).

So Duke has the advantage in overall quality, but it also has this, which will hurt them in their discussion against us (assuming we don't do the same against and FSU or Maryland).

Conclusion - The two offsetting factors make it a toss up IMO. I wouldn't want to put it in the hands of the committee.

Of course I still don't like Duke's chances that much of winning out. We are still ultimately 100% in control of our own destiny, and that includes an opportunity to lose a couple games with no harm.

 

[jncuse]

I disagree, but understand your mindset. I think 16-2 ITS OVER barring an SU injury even if Duke runs the table.

I did comparison above. Personally I would give it to Syracuse, but its enough of a toss up that I do not want to leave in the hands of the committee.

Key point again in my view - we are 100% in control of our own destiny at this point, and can afford some losses as well. Its a mighty nice (near lock) position.

 

[Marsh01]

Of course I still don't like Duke's chances that much of winning out. We are still ultimately 100% in control of our own destiny, and that includes an opportunity to lose a couple games with no harm.

This was factored into my comments ^^^^

 

[Doc5120]

Have you watched them this year? It is the anti Wisconsin, which is why they have struggled more than usual in Big 10 play

I have watched them this season. I actually watched some of the game last night against Minnesota. You make a good point though. Taking a quick look at their team page, they score points than I realized. I guess my statement was based on what they have been in the past, more so than what they currently are this season, which obviously doesn't mean anything because this year is this year. The way they move the ball and don't turn it over much can make playing them very frustrating.

 

[jncuse]

if we are a 1-2-3 seed we will be in the east, I think the only trouble we will have is if we are on the same seed line as nova/duke

I'm not that confident about us getting in MSG as 3 seed.

I also don't want to think of all the crap we would need to "accomplish" to get a 3 seed.

 

[BuffOrange]

I did comparison above. Personally I would give it to Syracuse, but its enough of a toss up that I do not want to leave in the hands of the committee.

Key point again in my view - we are 100% in control of our own destiny at this point, and can afford some losses as well. Its a mighty nice (near lock) position.

I like your comparison but I think you're exaggerating Duke's potential edge in quality conference wins:
Assuming our loss @UVA is a competitive game, nobody reasonable should think that's any different than a lucky bounce to beat them at home by 1pt.
Of course this is the committee and Duke so "reasonable" may be a question mark.

 

[Knicks411]

Assuming our loss @UVA is a competitive game, nobody reasonable should think that's any different than a lucky bounce to beat them at home by 1pt.

I get your point, and I'd agree, but the committee isn't really gonna think that way, and I'm not sure you want them too, because does that mean we need to give back our win vs Duke?

 

[BuffOrange]

I get your point, and I'd agree, but the committee isn't really gonna think that way, and I'm not sure you want them too, because does that mean we need to give back our win vs Duke?

Well you're not forced to speculate on hypotheticals when there's an actual home&home series.
But if that were the only time we played them, then yes, I think it'd be fine to call that a wash. Or at least weigh it a lot less heavily than one team losing to Clemson & ND (that we didn't play those teams on the road is not hypocritical since there are other ACC teams as good or better than them that Duke had the luxury of playing at home - Maryland, FSU, etc).

Cliff Notes: Unbalanced schedules suck. I envy the Big12 (the 10team version).

 

[Cuse315Pat]

After we beat Duke they moved up 6 spots in the poll. By that math when we beat them again next weekend they should move up to #2 and lock up the #1 seed in the East. Duke.

Ehh I think it was more along the lines of barely losing in OT to the #2 team in country on the road, right after blowing out #18 Pitt on the road that moved them up in the rankings.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

34-0 and an ACC Championship will likely do the trick too!

If we just win game at a time everything else will take care of itself. I'm sticking with my call, win the ACC regular season and one ACC tourney game, we are a 1 in the East. For now though all that matters is NCState...

 

[RF2044]

The selection committee is doing their mock selection with members of the media this week and Lunardi is tweeting from it and 8 teams were debated as far as a #1 seed (Arizona, Duke, Florida, Kansas, Michigan St., Syracuse, Villanova and Wichita St.)

They selected the 4 in this order 1.) Syracuse 2.) Arizona 3.)Wichita St. 4.)Florida

I can see all of those teams being in contention for top two seeds, but Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State all have several losses. The public and sports media seems more willing to forgive / overlook certain schools for losing games than others. If we had 4-5 losses like each of the aforementioned, we sure as hell wouldn't be around the top 10 let alone being discussed for a #1 seed.

 

[jncuse]

Ehh I think it was more along the lines of barely losing in OT to the #2 team in country on the road, right after blowing out #18 Pitt on the road that moved them up in the rankings.

And top 15 teams had 10 losses that week. Probably the most we will see this year by a good margin.

 

[Garbs]

I'm not that confident about us getting in MSG as 3 seed.

I also don't want to think of all the crap we would need to "accomplish" to get a 3 seed.

we were in the east as a 4 seed last year, they have changed how they do things

 

[Garbs]

I can see all of those teams being in contention for top two seeds, but Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State all have several losses. The public and sports media seems more willing to forgive / overlook certain schools for losing games than others. If we had 4-5 losses like each of the aforementioned, we sure as hell wouldn't be around the top 10 let alone being discussed for a #1 seed.

It is not overlooking but definitely forgiving, they will forgive losses with players missing for injury(MSU), against the top 3 RPI teams(Duke), and playing the toughest schedule(KU)

which is why these teams worry me if we lose 3-4 games

 

[Knicks411]

we were in the east as a 4 seed last year, they have changed how they do things

Yes, but we weren't one of the top 3 teams in the BE last year.