1) We generally start with games against Wagner, UConn, Army and the schedule gets tougher from there. If we’re not doing better record wise in September than the rest of the way, it’s either because we’re winning the ACC or going 1-11. Since we’re very unlikely to win the ACC, I’m ok with Septembers that are stronger performances than the rest of the schedule.
2). Every school has injuries, but we’ve historically had a big drop from 1st string to 2nd. The result is those injuries have had a huge impact on the later games we’re forced to play with much lesser talent.
This year is a fantastic test of my theory - we made it through a brutal stretch fairly healthy (I think…), the drop off from starters is less steep than in recent years, and the last five teams we play are between mediocre and hot garbage. If we don’t see a strong finish this year (4-1 or 5-0), being concerned would be justified because there’s obviously deeper issues at play.