A study on recruiting rankings

[OttoinGrotto]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...-predictive-accuracy/?sct=hp_t12_a5&eref=sihp

 

[Crusty]

Interesting article. Perhaps one take away is that both AP and Rivals recruiting rankings pretty much suck. Rivals is better half the time and the AP poll is better half the time. Better at doing what? Comparing one to the other is interesting but I am not sure how useful it really is considering that the basis is relative rating versus an "average" BCS team. The team that has the highest score relative to the average BCS team is #1 etc.

What we really want to know is how useful are the Rivals rankings as a predictor of individual player performance. Here we are pretty much stuck with anecdotal information such as the ratings of NFL draftees or the number of All Americans etc.

There are 85 scholarships for each team and many play little or not at all yet their Rivals ratings are included in the rankings. Since rankings are the total points for a recruiting class, many points are sitting on the bench, red shirting, injured, suspended etc.

There is simply no way to handle all the variable and come up with anything reliable. Great bar conversation but not very useful.

 

[baggerbob]

Notice Kansas St with many juco's rivals 63 finished 12.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Notice Kansas St with many juco's 63 finished 12.

You guys and your Kansas State.

Outliers are always the most reliable evidence.

 

[javadoc]

"Analysis was restricted to the top teams in the FBS, since the Rivals' ratings tend to differentiate between these schools to a much greater extent than they do the lower-ranked teams. For example, in 2012, top-ranked Alabama had 140 more points than second-ranked Texas. Yet the difference between the 84th-ranked team (FIU) and the 122nd-ranked team (Army) was just 141 points. This small margin between so many schools makes it difficult to accurately rank them. Teams from AQ conferences typically occupy the top of Rivals' rankings, but the ratings for Notre Dame, BYU and Boise State were also factored into this study, to better compare the Rivals' model with the preseason AP Poll."

And there you go. Saying that someone is "75th in the country" is statistically meaningless based on this comment.