A thought about expectations this year

[IthacaMatt]

This team is coming into the season with high expectations, as it should be, based on the sheer number of quality players we have returning from a team that won 27 games last year. On paper, when you consider the players that other teams lost, ranking us about 5th seem accurate. There are not many teams with more experienced talent than we have this year.

Now, will we have great chemistry? Will we be dedicated to playing aggressively in the zone? Will the young big men be able to defend and rebound without having Big Rick to fall back on? These are legitimate questions, which is why we are not a sure-fire Final Four team, but few teams are at this time of year.

Even if you look at North Carolina, who supposedly has the most loaded team in college this year, ask yourself - do Tyler Zeller and John Henson strike fear into anyone defending in the post? If their point guard Kendall Marshall goes down, they don't really have a replacement. Sure, they have great forwards in Harrison Barnes, James McAdoo and Reggie Bullock, but do they really have dependable 3 point shooting that can beat a zone like we play?

All of that said, there seems to be a recurring theme with Coach Boeheim, and that is Syracuse underachieving in the post season. It happens year after year. Right now, in terms of recruiting (as measured by McDonald's AA's) and in terms of regular season wins with 85 wins in the last 3 seasons (averaging over 28 per year), and we have not made it past the Sweet 16 , and only made it that far in 2 of the last 3 years. Now, sure, we had bad luck with Arinze getting hurt, because that certainly seemed like a Final Four, if not Championship team.

But last year we had no business losing in the second round to Marquette. That was lame. Getting beat by Oklahoma with the Jonny Flynn team was disappointing, in that they so clearly beat us. It wasn't even close.

This year, I think there is some pressure on Boeheim to get past the Sweet 16, which has always been his "kiss of death" round. In 35 years, we've only made it past the Sweet 16 four times, which I find almost as bad as Pitt's record, when you honestly think about it. We have underachieved when we have had some of our most promising teams. This year, we MUST break through, or else we should start thinking about when the time is right for Mike to take over. No more excuses. We need to make a Final Four this year.

 

[jr4750]

I am with you on the underachieving in the post season comments... I'm kinda over the large amount of seasons we have had where this has been so... UCONN was marginal last year at best but got hot when it mattered most. We tend to be hot early and fade hard towards the end of the years. I honestly don't care if we drop early games this year working out the kinks. We have everything we need to make a run, as well as the prospect of a fairly down year across the board talent wise in the country. There are probably 5 teams that can match us toe to toe and that along should mean anything less than a FF year is a letdown. Nobody cares what your record is if you get bounced yearly in the sweet 16.

 

[EastCoast2]

This team will be as good as Fab is, IMO

 

[arbitragegls]

...if Scoop plays smart and is willing to pass; if Fab plays 20+ minutes in final 15 games plus NCAA's...if Triche plays and scores as he should...we are NC all the way!

 

[SoBristol]

Most important factors may be the knees of Kris Joseph, and the development of Rak Christmas.
The soph centers will both be much better this time around -- although you have to worry about Melo's defense. CJ and Dion are two of the best 7th-8th men in the league. A lot of pieces in place and teams with so many underclassmen in the mix tend to get better over the season.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I am with you on the underachieving in the post season comments... I'm kinda over the large amount of seasons we have had where this has been so... UCONN was marginal last year at best but got hot when it mattered most. We tend to be hot early and fade hard towards the end of the years. I honestly don't care if we drop early games this year working out the kinks. We have everything we need to make a run, as well as the prospect of a fairly down year across the board talent wise in the country. There are probably 5 teams that can match us toe to toe and that along should mean anything less than a FF year is a letdown. Nobody cares what your record is if you get bounced yearly in the sweet 16.

Yes, the fact that a 9-9 UConn team that I personally feel is on the slide, with Kemba Walker as its only truly good player suddenly wins its final 11 games in a row and becomes Calhoun's 3rd national championship. Why the hell do we never do this ?? Not even talking championship, but surprise runs don't even happen anymore. We never seem to get past the Sweet 16, even in good years. It's getting very frustrating to achieve the same level of success in the post-season, when we have clearly upgraded the talent in the last decade, as compared to the teams we fielded in the 90s, but we're still getting the same results.

 

[jr4750]

Yes, the fact that a 9-9 UConn team that I personally feel is on the slide, with Kemba Walker as its only truly good player suddenly wins its final 11 games in a row and becomes Calhoun's 3rd national championship. Why the hell do we never do this ?? Not even talking championship, but surprise runs don't even happen anymore. We never seem to get past the Sweet 16, even in good years. It's getting very frustrating to achieve the same level of success in the post-season, when we have clearly upgraded the talent in the last decade, as compared to the teams we fielded in the 90s, but we're still getting the same results.

Exactly, we have rarely had that surprise run, sans 03 and 96... JB gets out-coached in the tourney more so than he should... He is too good of a coach to let that happen. You can't anticipate injury's of make up for them like we've had in the past, but in most years we should walk to the sweet 16 on talent alone. Some of our strongest teams, even with favorable matchups, (05) have totally dropped the ball. We certainly don't need FF years to justify success every year, but we are also not losing to the big guys every year when we get to the tourney. Ironically we struggle a lot more with the teams we should beat, Marquette, Vermont, etc., than the big guys, Texas, Kansas and the like. Perhaps, it's a confidence thing, and we look past some of these guys.

I do want to add that I am excluding the losses to teams like Butler, who although it speaks to an excuse I hate more than anything (It was a bad matchup for us) there is something to said for teams of destiny!

 

[arbitragegls]

...relax...this is going to be a good year...yes if AO hadnt been hurt, we may have gone all the way...the big difference this year is DEPTH...we are in good shape because we have replacements chopping at the bit to play...can JB manage PT...if so...we win the NC...no team could stay with us up and down the court with the pieces we play...9-10 rotation...bank it

 

[orange79]

no team could stay with us up and down the court with the pieces we play...9-10 rotation...bank it

So, this will be the one outlier year in JB's 35+ years as HC?

 

[jr4750]

...relax...this is going to be a good year...yes if AO hadnt been hurt, we may have gone all the way...the big difference this year is DEPTH...we are in good shape because we have replacements chopping at the bit to play...can JB manage PT...if so...we win the NC...no team could stay with us up and down the court with the pieces we play...9-10 rotation...bank it

I appreciate your optimism, and hope you are right, although I feel there area few teams with better overall talent than us. I am sure we will have a good year, however, we shall see how it pans out. Here is a perfect example where early on we are being touted as a FF caliber team, and hopefully, instead of underachieving, we can live up to that promise. I think to add to what you said, the hardest part of JB's job will be to maintain the effort and determination of his guys who will undoubtably play less than they feel they should. This is a very hard thing to do over a 4-5 month season. While on a given night 9-10 may play, the same 6-7 will get 90% of the minutes. Can an MCW come in for a 3 min span and be a important cog, forget difference maker, will be the ultimate story-line.

 

[pfister1]

Someone alert campus security, it sounds like a Lynch mob is forming. Anyone know if True Value has had a run on torches and pitch forks?

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

So, this will be the one outlier year in JB's 35+ years as HC?

JB had lots of teams that played that many. The years with guys like Duncan, Hughes, Manning, etc. If you watch those games on replays, lots of guys played. They just didn't get the majority of minutes, so they left.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

I'm not buying this team until someone shows me that he can be the go-to guy at crunch time.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Forget forwards. Forget Freshman. Forget centers. This team goes as far as Scoop and Triche take it. I hope there have been major improvements in both their games or else I detect another early tourney exit

 

[BlueCurtain]

we have rarely had that surprise run, sans 03 and 96... JB gets out-coached in the tourney more so than he should... we struggle a lot more with the teams we should beat, Marquette, Vermont, etc., than the big guys, Texas, Kansas and the like. Perhaps, it's a confidence thing, and we look past some of these guys.!

Predictable underachievement when it matters most would suggest perhaps it has something to do with the system/scheme.

 

[Orangemen]

Exactly, we have rarely had that surprise run, sans 03 and 96...

How often are we supposed to have suprise runs to a NC or the NC game? To pull that off once is hard, we've done it twice, which is damn rare.

UConn's run was 1 in a million, and we'll never see something like that happen again.

2 years ago was our shot, and we almost definitely make the FF with AO, and I the NC would have been well within our grasp at that point.

Now, just 2 years later we're a FF favorite, and probably will be a FF contender for the next 2 years, at least. We're in a pretty good spot as a program right now.[/quote]

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

All of that said, there seems to be a recurring theme with Coach Boeheim, and that is Syracuse underachieving in the post season. It happens year after year.

I learned right here on this board that we are a very good post season team and just because we rarely make the "arbitrary" elite 8...doesnt mean we arent elite.

 

[OttoMets]

2 years ago was our shot, and we almost definitely make the FF with AO, and I the NC would have been well within our grasp at that point.

[/quote]

But we didn't make the Final Four. Even without our injured starter, we got upset by an inferior team. And we did so in a game that was a.) an offensive crapfest, and b.) essentially a no-show by our two best players and our best uninjured post player. Unfortunately, we were outcoached and outhustled. We also showed off one of our classic NCAA scoring droughts that so often occur in our big upset losses, falling behind about 10-0?

Onuaku or no Onuaku, Butler falls right into the theme of us underperforming once we reach the Sweet Sixteen. I won't stoop to Boeheim-bashing, but there are certain trends with this program over the last 35 years. It's highly likely that we'll have a terrific start to the season. It's highly likely that we'll have a losing streak in January or February that is the consequence of hideous execution in our half-court offense. And it's pretty likely that we won't advance past the second weekend in the tournament (and that our loss will involve both a stagnant half-court offense and a very short bench).

(You're right that UConn's run was one in a million. That was weird. I'd like to pretend it didn't happen. 9-9 Big East team wins its last 11. Awful.)

 

[pfister1]

But we didn't make the Final Four. Even without our injured starter, we got upset by an inferior team. And we did so in a game that was a.) an offensive crapfest, and b.) essentially a no-show by our two best players and our best uninjured post player. Unfortunately, we were outcoached and outhustled. We also showed off one of our classic NCAA scoring droughts that so often occur in our big upset losses, falling behind about 10-0?

Onuaku or no Onuaku, Butler falls right into the theme of us underperforming once we reach the Sweet Sixteen. I won't stoop to Boeheim-bashing, but there are certain trends with this program over the last 35 years. It's highly likely that we'll have a terrific start to the season. It's highly likely that we'll have a losing streak in January or February that is the consequence of hideous execution in our half-court offense. And it's pretty likely that we won't advance past the second weekend in the tournament (and that our loss will involve both a stagnant half-court offense and a very short bench).

(You're right that UConn's run was one in a million. That was weird. I'd like to pretend it didn't happen. 9-9 Big East team wins its last 11. Awful.)[/quote]

I am not making a statement on the main point, but why do you say "even without our injured starter, we got upset by an inferior team"? I assume your point is that you believe Butler was inferior to SU even without AO playing. I disagree. I think history has shown otherwise.

While it is fashionable not to give Butler any credit for their accomplishments, they did make the championship game two years in a row. It is not as though they beat us and then turned around and lost in the next round...they came within 2 points of winning the whole thing. They then managed to do it again the following year, so maybe people don't always recognize a "great" team when they see it, but just because they didn't receive the press accolades that others did they sure as hell proved their mettle in the tournament.

The fact is that we were a team that was very clearly a sum of the parts type of club. We were as good as we were because of how well all of the individuals played together and complimented each other, there was no take over guy on the club. When you remove a part it changes the entire dynamic of the team and how well it functions and when that club plays another great team the outcome is anything but certain.

 

[OttoMets]

I am not making a statement on the main point, but why do you say "even without our injured starter, we got upset by an inferior team"? I assume your point is that you believe Butler was inferior to SU even without AO playing. I disagree. I think history has shown otherwise.

While it is fashionable not to give Butler any credit for their accomplishments, they did make the championship game two years in a row. It is not as though they beat us and then turned around and lost in the next round...they came within 2 points of winning the whole thing. They then managed to do it again the following year, so maybe people don't always recognize a "great" team when they see it, but just because they didn't receive the press accolades that others did they sure as hell proved their mettle in the tournament.

The fact is that we were a team that was very clearly a sum of the parts type of club. We were as good as we were because of how well all of the individuals played together and complimented each other, there was no take over guy on the club. When you remove a part it changes the entire dynamic of the team and how well it functions and when that club plays another great team the outcome is anything but certain.[/quote]

I do think that Syracuse minus Onuaku was a better team than Butler; I know not everyone agrees with that. I don't mean to take anything away from Butler (although I personally don't have a lot of respect for that Pittsburgh style of hand-checking basketball, and Matt Howard was dirty and is one of my least favorite players in recent memory).

But Butler was a very good team, for sure. And, as you said, our 2009-2010 team was a house of cards. When one guy went down, our shifting of players didn't adequately fill that gap.

Still, we played our worst (possibly second-worst, with DePaul the worst) game of the season and lost a close game. I really think we were better and would've beaten Butler 6 or 7 of 10 times without Arinze.

 

[realorange]

How often are we supposed to have suprise runs to a NC or the NC game? To pull that off once is hard, we've done it twice, which is damn rare.

UConn's run was 1 in a million, and we'll never see something like that happen again.

2 years ago was our shot, and we almost definitely make the FF with AO, and I the NC would have been well within our grasp at that point.

Now, just 2 years later we're a FF favorite, and probably will be a FF contender for the next 2 years, at least. We're in a pretty good spot as a program right now.

[/quote]

Connecticut certainly had a great run, but Villanova Kansas and NC State come to mind in past years as unreal champions.
The NCAA tournament is never a solid bet. Just witness our own little in house competition to pick a winner each year.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm not a believer in posting about posting, but this is too funny to not comment on.

On the basketball board people are saying that our HOF coach, who happens to be closing in on being like Top 3 all-time in wins at the level of his profession, needs to make a Final Four this season to justify his continued positon.

Meanwhile, on the football board people are clamoring for an offense that performs merely to the average in college football, not even performing to the average of BCS programs, and the coach's performance, system and position is defended.

Madness.