ACC Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson's world | Syracusefan.com

ACC Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson's world

OrangeXtreme

The Mayor of Dewitt
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Syracuse Orange
2018 record and rankings: 10-3 (No. 40 in S&P+, No. 28 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.7 wins (No. 56)
2019 FPI projection: 6.7 wins (No. 49)

Strength: A defense that finishes. The Syracuse defense ranked a decent 39th in marginal efficiency last year, but big plays were an issue (106th in marginal explosiveness). One thing was certain, though: The timing was great.

When the Orange had leveraged you behind schedule, they took your head off (16th in passing downs marginal efficiency, 20th in blitz-downs sack rate), and when you entered the red zone, your progress stopped (26th in points allowed per scoring opportunity, 20th in success rate inside the 10). And most of the reasons for that success are back. Ends Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman make up one of the best duos in the country, and the secondary is loaded with experience. (It also boasts maybe the best sophomore defender in the country in safety Andre Cisco.)

Weakness: An inefficient offense has a new quarterback. Syracuse had its moments on offense -- 56 points per game against early nonconference cupcakes, 500 or more yards six times -- but the Orange were pretty reliant on big plays and great field position for their points. They were inconsistent down for down (76th in marginal efficiency).

It's hard to improve your efficiency when you lose your starting quarterback (who was also your leading rusher), your top receiving target and three starting linemen. But to match last year's 10-win total, Syracuse is going to have to find a way. New starting QB Tommy DeVito was a well-regarded recruit, at least.

Opportunity: A schedule that can absorb a drop-off. Against a schedule that featured only three top-30 opponents (per S&P+), Syracuse racked up wins with what S&P+ saw as a mere top-40 team. It's the same story this time around -- Clemson and FSU are the only opponents projected higher than 47th. Syracuse could fall and still pretty easily win eight games.

Threat: The trickiest possible start for a new QB. Soft as the schedule might be overall, the kickoff is still going to test DeVito. The Orange open with back-to-back road games against Liberty and Maryland, and although Syracuse will be favored in both games, Liberty is going to take a "mid-major with a shot at a huge home upset" home run swing, and Maryland has as much or more athleticism, if not as much proven skill.

After that, Syracuse returns home to face Clemson. There are lots of potential wins on the schedule, but that's still a tricky early road.
 
Maryland has as much or more athleticism/skill?
 
At this years golf tourney Coach Babers said he felt Maryland had more overall talent then Cuse, maybe just coach speak but that game is going to be a dogfight. I hate to say it but I would be surprised if we win. Maryland will be well prepared it’s a road game for us, and we have the look ahead problem with Clemson the following week. If we beat Maryland I think we win 10 games.
 
At this years golf tourney Coach Babers said he felt Maryland had more overall talent then Cuse, maybe just coach speak but that game is going to be a dogfight. I hate to say it but I would be surprised if we win. Maryland will be well prepared it’s a road game for us, and we have the look ahead problem with Clemson the following week. If we beat Maryland I think we win 10 games.

Don't forget the Locksley factor. The guy is a terrible head coach. Wasn't even that good of an OC, and that was with Alabama level talent.
 
I agree he is not a good head coach, I also don’t think Canada is a good coach and they beat Texas and took Ohio State to the wire(they should have won).
 
I agree he is not a good head coach, I also don’t think Canada is a good coach and they beat Texas and took Ohio State to the wire(they should have won).
I’m sorry but Canada is an awesome coach but a ass. I have heard he is an arrogant sob. But he knows his shiiiiiit though. Do u remember playing Pitt three years ago when they put up 72 points. He was oc.
 
Ask LSU fans how much they liked Canada, I believe he was the coordinator when they lost to Troy. And we were a 4-8 team they scored 72 points on.
 
I agree he is not a good head coach, I also don’t think Canada is a good coach and they beat Texas and took Ohio State to the wire(they should have won).

Matt Canada is a better coordinator than Scottie Montgomery. Canada generally made teams better. Montgomery performed well under a great HC in Cutcliffe. His 5-7 record in one year as interim coach is also significantly better than Locksley against a much tougher schedule.
 
That weakness is really a strength if Devito is better at keeping a drive going than Dungey was (as a lot of us think/hope).
Weakness is a strength... :)

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At this years golf tourney Coach Babers said he felt Maryland had more overall talent then Cuse, maybe just coach speak but that game is going to be a dogfight. I hate to say it but I would be surprised if we win.
This game has the hallmark of those years in the 90s where we'd stumble out of the gate. Thing is, if Dino is being honest, this won't be that much of an upset if we were to lose. If we're favored it won't be by more than a couple points. Shows how ridiculous the fan base is in looking past this game.
 
This game has the hallmark of those years in the 90s where we'd stumble out of the gate. Thing is, if Dino is being honest, this won't be that much of an upset if we were to lose. If we're favored it won't be by more than a couple points. Shows how ridiculous the fan base is in looking past this game.
I couldn’t agree more, spread will be within 3 and by kick off we might be underdogs.
 
Ask LSU fans how much they liked Canada, I believe he was the coordinator when they lost to Troy. And we were a 4-8 team they scored 72 points on.
Canada was forced to run a different system at LSU. It was never going to work because they didn't let him run what he did at Pitt.
 
Respectfully, please explain what in HCDB' history makes you believe he will coach as FHCPP. Further, please explain why you believe UM, a 2019 team, will perform as one of the teams that beat SU in the 1990's.

There are significant and material differences that severely discount any correlation. While we should need HCDB's concern regarding UM's talent, we should not imply that concern overrides all the positive aspects of this match-up. I.e.: vastly better coaching staff has a history of doing more with less; we have a system in place v. installing a new system/staff; our team is on a roll v. UM which had a disappointing season, etc.

Your concern is legitimate, but you have failed to detail why your concern should trump cautious optimism (or even straight up optimism in some). You must use relevant data when making your points. HCPP was not a forward thinker in CFB offense, HCDB is a forward thinker. HCDB is a better game coach, too. HCPP disappointed with superior talent while HCDB uses the talent at hand to outperform others.
This game has the hallmark of those years in the 90s where we'd stumble out of the gate. Thing is, if Dino is being honest, this won't be that much of an upset if we were to lose. If we're favored it won't be by more than a couple points. Shows how ridiculous the fan base is in looking past this game.
 
I don’t share the belief that this game is dangerous because of past results especially in the 90s, I explained why I don’t have as much optimism about this game.
Equal talent
Road game
Game before the most hyped game we may have ever had,
And they have added considerable talent with transfers. I hope we win and I think Vegas will have it almost a toss up game but I’m not optimistic if anything I’m concerned.
 
Respectfully, please explain what in HCDB' history makes you believe he will coach as FHCPP. Further, please explain why you believe UM, a 2019 team, will perform as one of the teams that beat SU in the 1990's.

There are significant and material differences that severely discount any correlation. While we should need HCDB's concern regarding UM's talent, we should not imply that concern overrides all the positive aspects of this match-up. I.e.: vastly better coaching staff has a history of doing more with less; we have a system in place v. installing a new system/staff; our team is on a roll v. UM which had a disappointing season, etc.

Your concern is legitimate, but you have failed to detail why your concern should trump cautious optimism (or even straight up optimism in some). You must use relevant data when making your points. HCPP was not a forward thinker in CFB offense, HCDB is a forward thinker. HCDB is a better game coach, too. HCPP disappointed with superior talent while HCDB uses the talent at hand to outperform others.
I think you're overthinking this. Maryland is a decent P5 team. They are tough to beat at home. We don't enjoy much if any talent advantage. It's an early road game for an untested OL and LB core. I don't think we have to look too far to see why this game could go either way. Could we win comfortably? Perhaps. But I'd put more money on this being a tight game into the 4th qtr.
 
maryland has more skill guys, i dont think its even close. how they will play as a team no one knows.. playing them a noon in game 2 is a plus for us.
 

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