OrangeXtreme
The Mayor of Dewitt
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ACC Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson's world
Can anyone give Clemson a scare? Will Florida State turn things around? What are the expectations for Scott Satterfield at Louisville? We dig into these questions and more in our ACC Atlantic team previews.
www.espn.com
Syracuse Orange
2018 record and rankings: 10-3 (No. 40 in S&P+, No. 28 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.7 wins (No. 56)
2019 FPI projection: 6.7 wins (No. 49)
Strength: A defense that finishes. The Syracuse defense ranked a decent 39th in marginal efficiency last year, but big plays were an issue (106th in marginal explosiveness). One thing was certain, though: The timing was great.
When the Orange had leveraged you behind schedule, they took your head off (16th in passing downs marginal efficiency, 20th in blitz-downs sack rate), and when you entered the red zone, your progress stopped (26th in points allowed per scoring opportunity, 20th in success rate inside the 10). And most of the reasons for that success are back. Ends Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman make up one of the best duos in the country, and the secondary is loaded with experience. (It also boasts maybe the best sophomore defender in the country in safety Andre Cisco.)
Weakness: An inefficient offense has a new quarterback. Syracuse had its moments on offense -- 56 points per game against early nonconference cupcakes, 500 or more yards six times -- but the Orange were pretty reliant on big plays and great field position for their points. They were inconsistent down for down (76th in marginal efficiency).
It's hard to improve your efficiency when you lose your starting quarterback (who was also your leading rusher), your top receiving target and three starting linemen. But to match last year's 10-win total, Syracuse is going to have to find a way. New starting QB Tommy DeVito was a well-regarded recruit, at least.
Opportunity: A schedule that can absorb a drop-off. Against a schedule that featured only three top-30 opponents (per S&P+), Syracuse racked up wins with what S&P+ saw as a mere top-40 team. It's the same story this time around -- Clemson and FSU are the only opponents projected higher than 47th. Syracuse could fall and still pretty easily win eight games.
Threat: The trickiest possible start for a new QB. Soft as the schedule might be overall, the kickoff is still going to test DeVito. The Orange open with back-to-back road games against Liberty and Maryland, and although Syracuse will be favored in both games, Liberty is going to take a "mid-major with a shot at a huge home upset" home run swing, and Maryland has as much or more athleticism, if not as much proven skill.
After that, Syracuse returns home to face Clemson. There are lots of potential wins on the schedule, but that's still a tricky early road.