ACC Games for Nov 4-7

[OrangeXtreme]

Monday, November 4
Denver at Stanford ACCNX 4 PM
Maine at Duke ACCN 7 PM
Charleston So. at Clemson ACCNX 7 PM
Northern Kentucky at Florida State ACCNX 7 PM
Morehead State at Louisville ACCNX 7 PM
Fairleigh Dickinson at Miami ACCNX 7 PM
USC Upstate at NC State ACCNX 7 PM
Radford at Pitt ACCNX 7 PM
Le Moyne at Syracuse ACCNX 7 PM
The Citadel at Boston College ACCNX 8 PM
Delaware State at Virginia Tech ACCNX 8 PM
Coppin State at Wake Forest ACCNX 8 PM
Tarleton State at SMU ACCNX 8:30 PM
Elon at North Carolina ACCN 9 PM
CSU Bakersfield at California ACCNX 11:30 PM

Wednesday, November 6
Campbell at Virginia ACCNX 7 PM
West Georgia at Georgia Tech ACCNX 7:30 PM
Stonehill at Notre Dame ACCNX 7:30 PM

Thursday, November 7
NC A&T at Wake Forest ACCNX 7 PM
Florida A&M at SMU ACCNX 8 PM
Cal Poly at California ACCNX 10 PM

 

[jncuse]

Trying to make these first set of ACC games be interesting.

Whether people like the system or not, how the ACC plays in its out of conference games will have a massive impact on our resume, especially if we are a bubble team

And another whether you like it or not, the NET and its downflow impacts into conference play are impacted heavily by margin against not so great opponents. especially Q4 opponents. as the majority of teams in any power conference play many games against weak Q4 teams (B12 may play the most, but its substantial for everybody). This week all the power conferences are going to do well win% wise-- but the margin in these likely Q4 games impact things a fair bit and are a differentiator. For both Syracuse and ACC we have to be competitive margin wise this week.

Target Margin for this Week's Games. We can add up the results of all the games "net" and see how they do against the target (I'll explain my methodology in probably a separate thread, but these are margins we should want our ACC teams to win by)

Monday Games
All winnings margins unless otherwise noted
Stanford 17 (Denver)
Duke 27 (Maine)
Clemson 21 (Charleston Southern)
Florida St 10 (Northern Kentucky)
Louisville 18 (Morehead St)
Miami 26 (Fairleigh Dickinson)
NC St 26 (USC Update)
Pitt 20 (Radford)
Syracuse 23 (Lemoyne)
Boston College 18 (Citadel)
Virginia Tech 18 (Delaware St)
Wake Forest 31 (Coppin St)
SMU 14 (Tarleton St)
UNC 27 (Elon)
Cal 12 (Cal St Bakersfield)
Target Minimum Margin = 308 Pts

Note the 308 Pts only "maintains" our current KP standing, which is already on average about 3.5 points worse than an average B12 team. So ideally, we get closer to 350 as a conference. Anything below 308 is not good.

 

[JustPherU]

Monday, November 4
Denver at Stanford ACCNX 4 PM
Maine at Duke ACCN 7 PM
Charleston So. at Clemson ACCNX 7 PM
Northern Kentucky at Florida State ACCNX 7 PM
Morehead State at Louisville ACCNX 7 PM
Fairleigh Dickinson at Miami ACCNX 7 PM
USC Upstate at NC State ACCNX 7 PM
Radford at Pitt ACCNX 7 PM
Le Moyne at Syracuse ACCNX 7 PM
The Citadel at Boston College ACCNX 8 PM
Delaware State at Virginia Tech ACCNX 8 PM
Coppin State at Wake Forest ACCNX 8 PM
Tarleton State at SMU ACCNX 8:30 PM
Elon at North Carolina ACCN 9 PM
CSU Bakersfield at California ACCNX 11:30 PM

Wednesday, November 6
Campbell at Virginia ACCNX 7 PM
West Georgia at Georgia Tech ACCNX 7:30 PM
Stonehill at Notre Dame ACCNX 7:30 PM

Thursday, November 7
NC A&T at Wake Forest ACCNX 7 PM
Florida A&M at SMU ACCNX 8 PM
Cal Poly at California ACCNX 10 PM

Three games each on Wednesday and Thursday but the ACC Network is not showing any of them?I know they are on the extra but why not the main station!

 

[DanielA]

Three games each on Wednesday and Thursday but the ACC Network is not showing any of them?I know they are on the extra but why not the main station!

They only care about Duke and UNC

 

[Cappy3]

Three games each on Wednesday and Thursday but the ACC Network is not showing any of them?I know they are on the extra but why not the main station!

Well, in fairness, they all look like blowouts anyway.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Three games each on Wednesday and Thursday but the ACC Network is not showing any of them?I know they are on the extra but why not the main station!

The ACC Network has the Men's Soccer Tournament on Wednesday, and the Women's Tournament on Thursday.

 

[JustPherU]

The ACC Network has the Men's Soccer Tournament on Wednesday, and the Women's Tournament on Thursday.

That explains it then.

 

[Lukeyloo]

of course Duke and UNC are the teams that get play on the ACCN..

 

[PoppyHart]

Stanford beat Denver in front of dozens at Maples.

 

[jncuse]

The half time results for 7:00 games (+Stanford Game) have been very strong for the ACC, except for one team. May not like it, but margin in these mismatches matters in the NET world when you assess how the conference did as a whole.

Both the ACC and B12 played about the same number of games against the real bottom feeders last year (Sub 260 NET)... but the B12 had an extra margin of 8 points in this games, which was the biggest differentiator between the conferences in terms of performance. Don't have to like that it drives things, but it does when teams play over 40% of their games against Q4 in OOC.

Of course if we stink it doesn't really matter what people do around us... I'm just looking in the view of where we might have been xpected to be year end.

 

[Newhouser]

Not much run for Maliq this far in Durham.

 

[rrlbees]

Not much run for Maliq this far in Durham.

Maliq didn’t start but was the first man off the bench. Played 22 mins. Only scored 2 pts but was the leading rebounder with 7, 2nd in assts with 4 and had a steal.

 

[djcon57]

Copeland barely played for McNeese state. What a sad story.

 

[djcon57]

UCF and their band of misfits upset Texas A and M. Benny played 15 mins, Dior Johnson 5 mins

 

[Newhouser]

Maliq didn’t start but was the first man off the bench. Played 22 mins. Only scored 2 pts but was the leading rebounder with 7, 2nd in assts with 4 and had a steal.

Yeah I misread minutes for points.

 

[Cusefan0307]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

VT 61, DSU 34
DUKE 96, ME 62
STAN 85, DEN 62
NCSU 97, UPST 66
PITT 96, RAD 56
MIA 113, FDU 72
FSU 74, NKU 62
LOU 93, MORE 45
CLEM 91, CHSO 64
BC 69, CIT 60
WAKE 64, COPP 49
SMU 96, TAR 62
CAL 86, CSUB 73

Clean sweep.

 

[djcon57]

Go Elon!

 

[PoppyHart]

Go Elon!

Let’s keep politics out of this.

 

[blust2i3d4]

UCF and their band of misfits upset Texas A and M. Benny played 15 mins, Dior Johnson 5 mins

SEC lost four games on the first day. Big 12 lost one game (the eighth ranked Baylor). ACC and B1G have no loss.

 

[jncuse]

SEC lost four games on the first day. Big 12 lost one game (the eighth ranked Baylor). ACC and B1G have no loss.

Not a good day for the SEC at all, but to be a bit fair to them they actually had 4 of their teams challenge themselves on day one compared to the ACC for example who didn't challenge themselves in any single game... sort of consistent to last year when the SEC had by a decent amount the harder OOC schedule of the major conferences. But they do have to do better than going 1-3 in their 4 matchups against top 100 teams, and also had a WTH loss.

 

[jncuse]

A very strong day for the ACC as a whole yesterday. Not that they had any quality wins, but not one single WTH losses (which plagued them especially in 2022 and somewhat in 2023) and did very strong margin wise. I will be creating a thread comparing the ACC to B12 last year, and you will see how margin in these Q4 games (perhaps unfortunately) is very important to conference NET_ the ACC and the B12 actually played similar levels of garbage teams last year, but the B12 won those games by an average of 31 points while the ACC was closer to 23 points. It made a big difference (should it, maybe not, but it did)

So to the results last night and impact last night - The expected win margin of ACC conference games according to KP was about 308 yesterday. The conference actually won by a total of 368 points (4 points per game above expectation or about 5.6 points/100 above expectation. That extra 5.6 points indicates that the ACC as a whole played at a level that was closer to an average of #30-35 compared to the current average per KP which is #65-#70. It's a big difference.

As an aside part of the reason I analyze using KP, is that it highly approximates the way NET is calculated, but not 100%, But if we consistently beating margin expectations early, will be good for our conference NET once it is finally released.

 

[kirbivore]

Not a good day for the SEC at all, but to be a bit fair to them they actually had 4 of their teams challenge themselves on day one compared to the ACC for example who didn't challenge themselves in any single game... sort of consistent to last year when the SEC had by a decent amount the harder OOC schedule of the major conferences. But they do have to do better than going 1-3 in their 4 matchups against top 100 teams, and also had a WTH loss.

North Florida baby!

 

[Eric15]

I still can't believe Cooper Flagg doesn't turn 18 for another 1.5 months.

 

[OrangeXtreme]