SWC75
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK ELEVEN (2/1-7)
Texas Tech beat #9 Oklahoma 57-52: Texas Tech +22 both ranked
Oklahoma lost to #13 Texas Tech 52-57: Oklahoma +8 both ranked
Illinois State lost to #25 Drake 60-95: Illinois State -34 Drake +34
Baylor beat #6 Texas 83-69: Baylor +34 both ranked
Texas lost to #2 Baylor 69-83: Texas +10 both ranked
Michigan State lost to #8 Iowa 78-84: Michigan State +12 Iowa -12
Mississippi lost to #11 Tennessee 52-50: Mississippi +17 Tennessee -17
Indiana lost to #12 Illinois 71-75: Indiana +10 Illinois -10
Iowa State lost to #17 West Virginia 72-76: Iowa State +5 West Virginia -5
Penn State lost to #19 Wisconsin 56-72: Penn State -9 Wisconsin +9
Kansas State lost to #23 Kansas 51-74: Kansas State -20 Kansas +20
Maryland beat #24 Purdue 61-60: Maryland +2 Purdue -2
St. John’s beat #3 Villanova 70-59: St. John’s +34 Villanova -34
East Carolina beat #5 Houston 82-73: East Carolina +30 Houston -30
Louisiana State lost to #10 Alabama 60-78: Louisiana State -2 Alabama +2
North Carolina State lost to #14 Virginia 57-64: NC State +5 Virginia -5
Georgetown beat #15 Creighton 86-79: Georgetown +18 Creighton -18
Pittsburgh beat #16 Virginia Tech 83-72: Pittsburgh +21 Virginia Tech -21
Kentucky lost to #18 Missouri 70-75: Kentucky +3 Missouri -3
South Carolina beat #22 Florida 72-66: South Carolina +10 Florida -10
Pacific lost to #1 Gonzaga 58-76: Pacific +7 Gonzaga -7
Ohio State beat #8 Iowa 89-85: Ohio State +22 both ranked
Iowa lost to #7 Ohio State 85-89: Iowa +15 both ranked
Our Lady of the Lake lost to #5 Houston 46-112: OLOTL: -45 Houston +45
Oklahoma State beat #6 Texas 75-67: Oklahoma State +28 Texas -28
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma 72-79: Iowa State +10 Oklahoma -10
Missouri beat #10 Alabama 68-65: Missouri +19 both ranked
Alabama lost to #18 Missouri 65-68 Alabama +5 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #11 Tennessee 71-82: Kentucky +4 Tennessee -4
Illinois beat #19 Wisconsin 75-60: Illinois +22 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #12 Illinois 60-75: Wisconsin -1 both ranked
Kansas State lost to #13 Texas Tech 62-73: Kansas State +2 Texas Tech -2
Pittsburgh lost to #14 Virginia 66-73: Pittsburgh +5 Virginia -5
Marquette lost to #15 Creighton 68-71: Marquette +8 Creighton -8
U of Miami lost to #16 Virginia Tech 76-80: U of Miami +6 Virginia Tech -6
West Virginia beat #23 Kansas 91-79: West Virginia +15 both ranked
Kansas lost to #17 West Virginia 79-91: Kansas -3 both ranked
Southern California beat #21 UCLA 66-48: So California +23 UCLA -23
Northwestern lost to #24 Purdue 70-75: Northwestern -3 Purdue +3
Valparaiso lost to #25 Drake 77-80: Valparaiso -2 Drake +2
Georgetown lost to #3 Villanova 74-84: Georgetown +13 Villanova -13
Indiana beat #8 Iowa 67-65: Indiana +20 Iowa -20
Valparaiso beat #25 Drake 74-57: Valparaiso+18 Drake -18
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Oklahoma +121
Illinois +115
Gonzaga +109
Texas +106
West Virginia +104
Minnesota +103
Baylor +102
Kansas +102
Illinois +100
Texas Tech +94
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +124
Ohio State +92
Illinois +69
Houston +48
Baylor +46
Rutgers +32
North Carolina +28
Gonzaga +25
Texas +25
Virginia +22
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +218
Ohio State +173
Illinois +169
Baylor +148
Gonzaga +134
Texas +131
Oklahoma +121
Iowa +114
Michigan +107
Oklahoma State +92
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
North Carolina State +5
Boston College +10
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +77
North Carolina +8
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 5-2 finish, (six wins, then three losses) which would put us at 15-8, (9-7). Hopefully, that will be enough to get us into the Big Dance. It would obviously be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK ELEVEN (2/1-7)
Texas Tech beat #9 Oklahoma 57-52: Texas Tech +22 both ranked
Oklahoma lost to #13 Texas Tech 52-57: Oklahoma +8 both ranked
Illinois State lost to #25 Drake 60-95: Illinois State -34 Drake +34
Baylor beat #6 Texas 83-69: Baylor +34 both ranked
Texas lost to #2 Baylor 69-83: Texas +10 both ranked
Michigan State lost to #8 Iowa 78-84: Michigan State +12 Iowa -12
Mississippi lost to #11 Tennessee 52-50: Mississippi +17 Tennessee -17
Indiana lost to #12 Illinois 71-75: Indiana +10 Illinois -10
Iowa State lost to #17 West Virginia 72-76: Iowa State +5 West Virginia -5
Penn State lost to #19 Wisconsin 56-72: Penn State -9 Wisconsin +9
Kansas State lost to #23 Kansas 51-74: Kansas State -20 Kansas +20
Maryland beat #24 Purdue 61-60: Maryland +2 Purdue -2
St. John’s beat #3 Villanova 70-59: St. John’s +34 Villanova -34
East Carolina beat #5 Houston 82-73: East Carolina +30 Houston -30
Louisiana State lost to #10 Alabama 60-78: Louisiana State -2 Alabama +2
North Carolina State lost to #14 Virginia 57-64: NC State +5 Virginia -5
Georgetown beat #15 Creighton 86-79: Georgetown +18 Creighton -18
Pittsburgh beat #16 Virginia Tech 83-72: Pittsburgh +21 Virginia Tech -21
Kentucky lost to #18 Missouri 70-75: Kentucky +3 Missouri -3
South Carolina beat #22 Florida 72-66: South Carolina +10 Florida -10
Pacific lost to #1 Gonzaga 58-76: Pacific +7 Gonzaga -7
Ohio State beat #8 Iowa 89-85: Ohio State +22 both ranked
Iowa lost to #7 Ohio State 85-89: Iowa +15 both ranked
Our Lady of the Lake lost to #5 Houston 46-112: OLOTL: -45 Houston +45
Oklahoma State beat #6 Texas 75-67: Oklahoma State +28 Texas -28
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma 72-79: Iowa State +10 Oklahoma -10
Missouri beat #10 Alabama 68-65: Missouri +19 both ranked
Alabama lost to #18 Missouri 65-68 Alabama +5 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #11 Tennessee 71-82: Kentucky +4 Tennessee -4
Illinois beat #19 Wisconsin 75-60: Illinois +22 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #12 Illinois 60-75: Wisconsin -1 both ranked
Kansas State lost to #13 Texas Tech 62-73: Kansas State +2 Texas Tech -2
Pittsburgh lost to #14 Virginia 66-73: Pittsburgh +5 Virginia -5
Marquette lost to #15 Creighton 68-71: Marquette +8 Creighton -8
U of Miami lost to #16 Virginia Tech 76-80: U of Miami +6 Virginia Tech -6
West Virginia beat #23 Kansas 91-79: West Virginia +15 both ranked
Kansas lost to #17 West Virginia 79-91: Kansas -3 both ranked
Southern California beat #21 UCLA 66-48: So California +23 UCLA -23
Northwestern lost to #24 Purdue 70-75: Northwestern -3 Purdue +3
Valparaiso lost to #25 Drake 77-80: Valparaiso -2 Drake +2
Georgetown lost to #3 Villanova 74-84: Georgetown +13 Villanova -13
Indiana beat #8 Iowa 67-65: Indiana +20 Iowa -20
Valparaiso beat #25 Drake 74-57: Valparaiso+18 Drake -18
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Oklahoma +121
Illinois +115
Gonzaga +109
Texas +106
West Virginia +104
Minnesota +103
Baylor +102
Kansas +102
Illinois +100
Texas Tech +94
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +124
Ohio State +92
Illinois +69
Houston +48
Baylor +46
Rutgers +32
North Carolina +28
Gonzaga +25
Texas +25
Virginia +22
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +218
Ohio State +173
Illinois +169
Baylor +148
Gonzaga +134
Texas +131
Oklahoma +121
Iowa +114
Michigan +107
Oklahoma State +92
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
North Carolina State +5
Boston College +10
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +77
North Carolina +8
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 5-2 finish, (six wins, then three losses) which would put us at 15-8, (9-7). Hopefully, that will be enough to get us into the Big Dance. It would obviously be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
