An anomaly that has to go our way | Syracusefan.com

An anomaly that has to go our way

upperdeck

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just reviewing games where fumbles were recovered from 2010 by the SU Defense. So 12 years of data across a bunch of styles and opps. We avg 6-8 games of recovering a fumble. And then suddenly 2.. This is just games, not total fumbles.. So on avg we would expect to recover around 10+ fumbles in season.. Makes you wonder if you sprinkle 8 more into last year how those games get changed.. And its not like teams didnt fumble against us.. We had upwards of 5 in a game not get recovered last year. Strange trend when you go back that far and its always between 6 and 8 games we saw it happen.. It would suggest we should see a few this year.

2021 - 2
2020 - 8
2019 - 7
2018 - 7
2017 - 7
2016 - 6
2015 - 7
2014 - 7
2013 - 7
2012 - 8
2011 - 6
2010 - 6

If you review INTs it was much the same..

4 last yr
the previous yrs were 8,7,12,3,9,8,6,11,7,7,5

Historically low number of games with things going our way. we had 8 years of 5-8 Int games. a couple high 1 low year over that same time period.

You add those 2 things up and we would have expected about 10-15 turnovers more pretty consistently.
 
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NineOneSeven

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These numbers correlate to something that's been in my mind... IF we can get and play with a lead and force teams to pass against Duce and POTUS1 (GW) the turnovers will grow exponentially
Pretty obvious we will have substantially better odds of winning if we can get the lead early. I mean yeah, captain obvious right? But our team is built to force passing on defense, and prioritize rushing on offense.
 

ImperialOrange

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Pretty obvious we will have substantially better odds of winning if we can get the lead early. I mean yeah, captain obvious right? But our team is built to force passing on defense, and prioritize rushing on offense.

Things we couldn't accomplish last year... But yeah, captain obvious is accurate. Throw on us... I dare you
 

OttoinGrotto

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These numbers correlate to something that's been in my mind... IF we can get and play with a lead and force teams to pass against Duce and POTUS1 (GW) the turnovers will grow exponentially
I mean, probably not exponentially, that's like... that's a lot.

But yeah they should go up.
 

upperdeck

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I’ll just be happy if the opposing teams dont convert on the third and forever distance plays where they seem to convert 90+ percent of the time!
I think we were too content on 3rd and long with just stopping them short, it led to some conversions but it also led to getting enough yds they then went for it on 4th down. much of that though is inexperienced safety play
 

SUskibum

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I’ll just be happy if the opposing teams dont convert on the third and forever distance plays where they seem to convert 90+ percent of the time!
This was the only problem I had/have with White. He always called off the dogs on 3rd and long instead of continuing to attack (which created the 3rd and long in the first place!)

I hope he realizes that and it a pretty straight forward fix since we have the horses to do it.
 

anomander

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Speaking of fumbles that BS fumble call by Tucker inside the 10 against Rutgers when his knee was clearly down could have totally changed the outcome of that game. There has to be a trend where we get close calls thst gk to review. We certainly had a few occasions where I thought it was quite clear that it should have gone our way and didn’t.

The last time we had a huge turnover edge and great ST’s was 2018. I think we’re due again
 

rrlbees

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Speaking of fumbles that BS fumble call by Tucker inside the 10 against Rutgers when his knee was clearly down could have totally changed the outcome of that game. There has to be a trend where we get close calls thst gk to review. We certainly had a few occasions where I thought it was quite clear that it should have gone our way and didn’t.

The last time we had a huge turnover edge and great ST’s was 2018. I think we’re due again

It was Taj Harris at the 5. Such a killer BS call.
 

ImperialOrange

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I’ll just be happy if the opposing teams dont convert on the third and forever distance plays where they seem to convert 90+ percent of the time!

We all still have PTSD from that Nova QB running 1 yard past the sticks on every 3rd and long? Thought that was just me?
 

upperdeck

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Speaking of fumbles that BS fumble call by Tucker inside the 10 against Rutgers when his knee was clearly down could have totally changed the outcome of that game. There has to be a trend where we get close calls thst gk to review. We certainly had a few occasions where I thought it was quite clear that it should have gone our way and didn’t.

The last time we had a huge turnover edge and great ST’s was 2018. I think we’re due again
made all the worse by the review being totally botched on such an obviously blown call. if you are gonna screw up a review that badly you should get put on notice to the fans.
 

MadNY3

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just reviewing games where fumbles were recovered from 2010 by the SU Defense. So 12 years of data across a bunch of styles and opps. We avg 6-8 games of recovering a fumble. And then suddenly 2.. This is just games, not total fumbles.. So on avg we would expect to recover around 10+ fumbles in season.. Makes you wonder if you sprinkle 8 more into last year how those games get changed.. And its not like teams didnt fumble against us.. We had upwards of 5 in a game not get recovered last year. Strange trend when you go back that far and its always between 6 and 8 games we saw it happen.. It would suggest we should see a few this year.

2021 - 2
2020 - 8
2019 - 7
2018 - 7
2017 - 7
2016 - 6
2015 - 7
2014 - 7
2013 - 7
2012 - 8
2011 - 6
2010 - 6

If you review INTs it was much the same..

4 last yr
the previous yrs were 8,7,12,3,9,8,6,11,7,7,5

Historically low number of games with things going our way. we had 8 years of 5-8 Int games. a couple high 1 low year over that same time period.

You add those 2 things up and we would have expected about 10-15 turnovers more pretty consistently.
Losing Cisco (national INT leader), a playmaker like Trill and a lockdown like Iffy to the NFL goes a looooooong way here, I would think.

Garret might have promise, but the talent change out in the back four is likely a big contributor.
 

FrancoPizza

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Speaking of fumbles that BS fumble call by Tucker inside the 10 against Rutgers when his knee was clearly down could have totally changed the outcome of that game.
and Tommy might still be the starter today.
 

upperdeck

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Losing Cisco (national INT leader), a playmaker like Trill and a lockdown like Iffy to the NFL goes a looooooong way here, I would think.

Garret might have promise, but the talent change out in the back four is likely a big contributor.
except the INt stats were across 12 yrs not just the 2-3 those guys played.
 

CbusCuse

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Fumbles has to be more of an anomaly and should improve. INT's should improve some as well. They have to. I just doubt they change a lot. I think one of the big correlations is the QB's we play against. Last year they were pretty good and this year they are probably even better. I think that contributes to both INT's and QB fumble numbers. I think our offense will be better so that should help a little as far as teams pressing and risking a bit more.

Duce has the ability to be a ball hawk. He had 3 INT's last year but was a frosh. Garett will probably look for more and I think both . And I think Isaiah Johnson and Jermiah Wilson should contribute to INT's as reserves. Our safeties are still the weak link with this and are the position that is most likely supposed to get them. Think we are weak there generally.

Mikel had 4 INT's in 2020 and none in 2021. I bet he gets a couple this year.
 

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