Arbitragegls...GOR Question

[MaxwellCuse]

I was talking to a couple of guys at a local gathering spot the other night about football and conference realignment and the ACC, etc. Two guys were up from the Raleigh area and said they'd heard some talk around town of a possible short-term Grant-of-Rights deal being discussed that would buy some stability for the ACC at least up until the first 5-year "look in." I got the sense that neither of these guys was what the WVU crowd would call an "insider," just run-of-the-mill UNC/NCST fans. I was curious as to whether or not you've heard about some variation of a GOR, perhaps tied into the "look ins" in the media contract, through your contacts?

 

[arbitragegls]

I was talking to a couple of guys at a local gathering spot the other night about football and conference realignment and the ACC, etc. Two guys were up from the Raleigh area and said they'd heard some talk around town of a possible short-term Grant-of-Rights deal being discussed that would buy some stability for the ACC at least up until the first 5-year "look in." I got the sense that neither of these guys was what the WVU crowd would call an "insider," just run-of-the-mill UNC/NCST fans. I was curious as to whether or not you've heard about some variation of a GOR, perhaps tied into the "look ins" in the media contract, through your contacts?

I appreciate the question and here is a response, including source insight...as more comes to light I will let you all know...of course we are in a fluid situation and the ACC does not have control of outside forces:
Interestingly...there is lots being discussed. First there is no doubt that the ACC has teams that other conferences would like to have for a number of reasons...be it media markets, national brand, or just plain good academic/athletic universities. I can say that my source has indicated that GOR as well as other things are in discussion...this is being discussed...but there is time to reach decisions as the Maryland exit and the fee is not going to be decided tomorrow. And that may in fact be a turning point. Importantly, there is a great deal of discussion as to whether GOR would hold up in court also--never been tested. If the ACC can find a means to bring its dollar revenues closer in line to other conferences...it would thrive because of tied culture and geography and rivals.
That being said, yes GOR is being discussed at different time frames and levels...would ESPN want to throw additional dollars at the ACC if there were not a means to hold individual teams to the media contract...and if so what would the quid pro quo be...how long to sign and how much additional dollars would ESPN be willing to pay. The good news is with Notre Dame (association) and now Louisville added to 'Cuse and Pitt entering the ACC and fact that from an TV media rating..ACC is third and moving up...there is reason for ESPN to increase contract...but being tied to the 5 year look in may be too long away for some teams to wait...so this timing too is being discussed. Also note, that the new BCS dollars that will be around $475,000,000 still needs to be agreed to these dollars shared and by whom. We know that most will go to the Top 5 conferences..but so far that is all we know.
Lastly, a previous thread discussed other means of compensating ACC teams that go to Bowls and NCAA tournaments...those points coupled with this thread are where discussions are being undertaken...it is a roller coaster ride...and no conference should feel it may be unscathed by the time this all shakes out.

Go 'Cuse..beat WVU in Pin Stripe Bowl and BBALL team continue its winning streak...as CTO said on the other side of board...last night was fun and good to share the game with so many without worry from the DudeWVU, Greg Swaim or others--lots of stuff thrown out in cyber space...little of it true.

Enjoy and discuss!

 

[DoctorBombay]

Gracias, Arb.
Your postings have always remained positive in nature, so at least there's that!

 

[MaxwellCuse]

Arb -- Just got back from dinner out with the wife so this was the first time I've been able to check in for a while. Thanks very much for your extended reply. Lots to think about in what you have said. I'll probably have a follow up question once everything (including my dinner) is thoroughly digested.

 

[omniorange]

Arb, I'm grateful for the updates.

I do, however, have a question. You've stated something the following in a couple of posts now and I was wondering if you could further elaborate.

"from an TV media rating..ACC is third and moving up...there is reason for ESPN to increase contract"

If by third you mean the ACC is third on ABC/ESPN behind their SEC games and Big Ten games, I think this is a valid statement. But overall, when the FOX ratings are brought into play, is the ACC truly third still, like it used to be? It just seems to me with many of the better games on FOX, those games while still behind SEC and Big Ten games, seemed to edge ahead of the ACC games.

Best ratings for ACC games this year I could find were as follows:

FSU/Miami - 3.1
Clemson/FSU - 2.9

Non-conference games played at ACC stadiums:

Fla/FSU - 5.1
ND/BC - 3.6

I remain cautiously optimistic, but that is more despite the ratings than because of them.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[arbitragegls]

Arb, I'm grateful for the updates.

I do, however, have a question. You've stated something the following in a couple of posts now and I was wondering if you could further elaborate.

"from an TV media rating..ACC is third and moving up...there is reason for ESPN to increase contract"

If by third you mean the ACC is third on ABC/ESPN behind their SEC games and Big Ten games, I think this is a valid statement. But overall, when the FOX ratings are brought into play, is the ACC truly third still, like it used to be? It just seems to me with many of the better games on FOX, those games while still behind SEC and Big Ten games, seemed to edge ahead of the ACC games.

Best ratings for ACC games this year I could find were as follows:

FSU/Miami - 3.1
Clemson/FSU - 2.9

Non-conference games played at ACC stadiums:

Fla/FSU - 5.1
ND/BC - 3.6

I remain cautiously optimistic, but that is more despite the ratings than because of them.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, excellent points. Another view would be to measure media is by Nielsen ratings and numbers that look at conferences household average viewership per conference/game. Below, is the most recent full year analysis by Nielsen (2011) which takes in all networks/stations and applies a total household viewership per game. This is what the ACC is using (newer #s that are better cannot be shown at this time) in its negotiations with ESPN (note that a part of the most recent ACC negotiation was that it was the first negotiation as College Sport media dollars exploaded...the ACC more than doubled its previous contract but in fact; if waited another year and gone to the open market it may have done as well or better than the Big 12. At any rate, the household viewership demonstrates that the ACC is certainly not the bottom of the Top 5 in overall viewership per game (either football or bball) and that it certainly should have a TV contract in the middle of the TOP 5 conferences--and with the demographics continuing to grow in its footprint...probably will move up insofar as eyeballs looking at its games. THIS WOULD COME INTO PLAY IN THE LOOK IN 5 YEARS OUT--all ACC has to do is to have same teams at this point and its contract would rise naturally presuming "watch trend continues" (this does not take into consideration whatever eyeballs Notre Dame association brings as well as 'Cuse, Pitt, and Louisville).

Nielsen Ave Game HH Viewership (2011)MM
Football:
SEC B1G ACC Big12 Pac12
4,447 3,267 2,658 2,347 2,108

BBall:
1,222 1,456 1,247 1,069 783

Based on these #s, the ACC is third in football viewership and second in bball viewership...the media contract over time based on continuing these numbers trend is believed by source to raise the ACC media TV contract relative to other conferences. Additionally, the addition of 'Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and association with Notre Dame in total will all cause media contract $$ to rise...above #s did not include these teams.

This is part of what is now being discussed...along with an ACC network etc. It may turn out well for the ACC but the next several months will provide an indication of ESPN's desire for its relationship with the ACC to remain strong.

 

[007]

Neil, excellent points. Another view would be to measure media is by Nielsen ratings and numbers that look at conferences household average viewership per conference/game. Below, is the most recent full year analysis by Nielsen (2011) which takes in all networks/stations and applies a total household viewership per game. This is what the ACC is using (newer #s that are better cannot be shown at this time) in its negotiations with ESPN (note that a part of the most recent ACC negotiation was that it was the first negotiation as College Sport media dollars exploaded...the ACC more than doubled its previous contract but in fact; if waited another year and gone to the open market it may have done as well or better than the Big 12. At any rate, the household viewership demonstrates that the ACC is certainly not the bottom of the Top 5 in overall viewership per game (either football or bball) and that it certainly should have a TV contract in the middle of the TOP 5 conferences--and with the demographics continuing to grow in its footprint...probably will move up insofar as eyeballs looking at its games. THIS WOULD COME INTO PLAY IN THE LOOK IN 5 YEARS OUT--all ACC has to do is to have same teams at this point and its contract would rise naturally presuming "watch trend continues" (this does not take into consideration whatever eyeballs Notre Dame association brings as well as 'Cuse, Pitt, and Louisville).

Nielsen Ave Game HH Viewership (2011)MM
Football:
SEC B1G ACC Big12 Pac12
4,447 3,267 2,658 2,347 2,108

BBall:
1,222 1,456 1,247 1,069 783

Based on these #s, the ACC is third in football viewership and second in bball viewership...the media contract over time based on continuing these numbers trend is believed by source to raise the ACC media TV contract relative to other conferences. Additionally, the addition of 'Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and association with Notre Dame in total will all cause media contract $$ to rise...above #s did not include these teams.

This is part of what is now being discussed...along with an ACC network etc. It may turn out well for the ACC but the next several months will provide an indication of ESPN's desire for its relationship with the ACC to remain strong.

Great stuff, as usual Arb. Thank you for all the info and your willingness to share.

Does your source still see "happy days" ahead? I think that is the term you used in a previous thread.

 

[Crusty]

A couple of observations.
For obvious reasons, viewership alone is not as important as viewership per team. For 2011 per team, the Big 12 jumps ahead of the ACC in FB and BB. However, with the changes/additions, I suppose that ACC will jump to second per team in BB and third in FB.

FB
SEC B1G B12 ACC PAC 12
371 272 222 235 176

BB
B1G Big 12 ACC SEC PAC 12
121 107 104 102 65

The other question is demographics. As or more important are the demographic data of the average viewer for each conference. A host of different attributes play a big role in what an average viewer is worth to TV. Average income, age, sex etc probably vary widely among conferences. It is hard to make a reasonable analysis without seeing these data.
Rutgers and MD were surely attractive based on income data as opposed to simply raw eyeballs. I guarantee you that while CT only has about 3 million population in the entire state, the demographics are very high. Virginia and NC demographics are probably high as well.
While it is certainly very interesting to glimpse the macro elements of the situation it is probably wise to understand that we simply do not know what all the data are and therefore cannot fully appreciate the dynamics of the negotiations.

 

[baggerbob]

Adding Louisville and Syracuse for basketball, will easily move the ACC ahead of everyone for basketball viewership.

 

[Crusty]

Adding Louisville and Syracuse for basketball, will easily move the ACC ahead of everyone for basketball viewership.

Don't forget Pitt.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

The Tier 1 & 2 media package, which is essentially football and men's basketball just got a lot more valuable with the expansion of the ACC. The biggest addition is the 2-3 Notre Dame football games per year, but don't discount the value of Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame and Louisville basketball. Those are 4 great hoops names and a lot of additional quality content. (Some good Tier 3 stuff also with SU and Notre Dame lacrosse and women's basketball and Louisville baseball and soccer.

 

[arbitragegls]

Crusty: good post and here is something that should be of interest relative to what you posted:
"The other question is demographics. As or more important are the demographic data of the average viewer for each conference. A host of different attributes play a big role in what an average viewer is worth to TV. Average income, age, sex etc probably vary widely among conferences. It is hard to make a reasonable analysis without seeing these data."

From a macro view this may help (Nielsen DATA):
College football fans

• skew older and wealthy as almost 3 out of 4 college football viewers (71.5%)
• are over the age of 35 and
• 80% of the Nielsen P$YCLE “Financial Elite” lifestage segment watch regular season and bowl games.

 

[HtownOrange]

...and ND. All four new adds are hoops positive for the ACC. I believe we are all positive for football, too.